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FAQ on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS):
Q: If ECS is, say, 3C, does that mean we have no chance of avoiding the 1.5C or 2C targets?
A: No! ECS is the climate response to doubling CO2 from preindustrial levels (560ppm). We're at 416ppm now. We can stop before we get there!
Q: If ECS is, say, 3C, does that mean we have no chance of avoiding the 1.5C or 2C targets?
A: No! ECS is the climate response to doubling CO2 from preindustrial levels (560ppm). We're at 416ppm now. We can stop before we get there!
Q: Why don't we know this number exactly?
A: As the planet warms, stuff changes- clouds, ice, water vapor, etc. And these changes "feed back" onto the temperature, speeding up or slowing down the warming. It's a very complex system!
A: As the planet warms, stuff changes- clouds, ice, water vapor, etc. And these changes "feed back" onto the temperature, speeding up or slowing down the warming. It's a very complex system!
Q: Why are you ruling out low climate sensitivities?
A: ECS <2 is very unlikely to have produced the 1.1C of warming we've seen so far, and it's hard to see how the Ice Ages could have occurred with an insensitive climate
A: ECS <2 is very unlikely to have produced the 1.1C of warming we've seen so far, and it's hard to see how the Ice Ages could have occurred with an insensitive climate
Q: Is this just based on computer models?
A: No! We considered 3 lines of evidence:
1) Proxy measurements of Earth's past climates
2) Trends since the Industrial Revolution
3) Present-day observations and physical laws
A: No! We considered 3 lines of evidence:
1) Proxy measurements of Earth's past climates
2) Trends since the Industrial Revolution
3) Present-day observations and physical laws
Q: What are the policy implications?
A: I'm a physicist. Ask academics like @leahstokes or @arvindpawan1 or policy folks like @rgunns because they know their stuff!
A: I'm a physicist. Ask academics like @leahstokes or @arvindpawan1 or policy folks like @rgunns because they know their stuff!
Q: I did not read the report, nor do I study climate science. Would you like me to explain something to you?
A: No, thank you.
A: No, thank you.
