Inspired by this xG Philosophy thread https://twitter.com/xGPhilosophy/status/1285638896089522177
I'd like to run a few polls for the AFL analytics crew. I don't mind if you call it Expected Score or Shot Equity or xSco, as long as we're talking about the expected number of points from a shot at goal [1/5]

First, an easy one. Your team has a set shot 44m out on a 30° angle (that's where the shot will be taken from, let's say the man on the mark is at 36m). The model says it's a 50% chance of a goal. What is the Shot Equity? [2/5]

It used to be that each team was equally likely* to score next after a point. Now defensive strategies dominate, and the team kicking in starts with negative net equity.
Does this residual effect mean a behind is worth more than one point? And, does that change the previous poll?

Casboult shanks the kick, but Eddie Betts recovers it and snaps from 10 metres on the angle, with shot equity 4.0. There were two shots at goal for six points on the scoreboard, but what was the net contribution to the club's Shot Equity? Explain. [4/5]

It turns out Eddie gave away a free, so the goal is reversed and the shot subtracted. However he gets a hand on the free kick, gathers and snaps truly from the same location under the same pressure. Now what's your answer? [5/5]