Thread by @wrobelluk, Gradually, then suddenly. Very few of my $macro/fx/stocks friends are paying attention [...]

Gradually, then suddenly.

Very few of my $macro/fx/stocks friends are paying attention but what's happening now in the #DeFi space is a perfect "cambrian explosion".

Note to self: my crystal ball whispers it's probably the last week we see $ETH below 250 USD

Basic building blocks (wallets, erc20, staking)

Battle-tested smart contracts

Killer app: stable coins + #yieldFarming

Network effects: buidlers, DAOs

Macro env (brrr...)

Institutional money (early adopters)

(I'm biased and positioned properly

)

5 days later we're 25%+ higher but if you look at the weekly chart there's plenty space for this story to unfold the before major FOMO kicks in: https://twitter.com/sstrazza/status/1287092671127924743

https://twitter.com/sstrazza/status/1287092671127924743

day 11: $eth above $350 +50%

Crystal Ball:"Don't rush with profit taking: it's a marathon, not a sprint

.
Move daily stop loss to 290 USD (applies to 70% of position).
Overwrite it only in case of a broad risk-off - short-term trend reversal in $usdeur, $spx, $tlt, $xlk)"

day 11: $eth above $350 +50% Crystal Ball:"Don't rush with profit taking: it's a marathon, not a sprint.Move daily stop loss to 290 USD (applies to 70% of position). Overwrite it only in case of a broad risk-off - short-term trend reversal in $usdeur, $spx, $tlt, $xlk)"

In spirit of failing in public and getting out of the comfort zone I'll post my trades here.

$ETHUSD will probably be one of my best calls of 2020 but I commit to publishing spectacular failures as well.

Currently 2 positions open with stop losses at $412, $387.

Both stop losses triggered: out of $ETHUSD for now.
Final result: +49R

Good risk mgmt: (+14R, +5R, +4R, +4R, +24R)

Good timing with additional positions

2 forced entries at the end of the ride: both -1R losses

Follow the process and score will take care of itself.

Both stop losses triggered: out of $ETHUSD for now. Final result: +49R Good risk mgmt: (+14R, +5R, +4R, +4R, +24R) Good timing with additional positions 2 forced entries at the end of the ride: both -1R lossesFollow the process and score will take care of itself.

Quite a volatility last week on $ETHUSD

Poor risk mgmnt: +2R turned into -1R loss, should have moved SL higher sooner

Missed early singal around $390

New entry: $350, SL: $335

Quite a volatility last week on $ETHUSD Poor risk mgmnt: +2R turned into -1R loss, should have moved SL higher sooner Missed early singal around $390New entry: $350, SL: $335

Aaand it’s gone.

-1R loss, $ethusd stop loss triggered

No positions, won’t chase the rally if it returns above $350 unless a clear risk off sentiment (vix, $eurusd) reverses

With a broad risk off sentiment fading away $ethusd feels like ready for another wave up.

Long position opened at $370.
Stop loss: $355 (2/3) and $340 (1/3)

2 open $ethusd positions finally take off ($395)
Stop losses moved to breakeven + dinner for 2 ($373).

Weekly chart for the context: we're here not scalping. It's a marathon, not a sprint.While #DeFi builders keep strengthening Ethereum's network effects, Paypal joins the party

$ethusd both positions stopped out just above the breakeven (+0.6R)

Seeing equities and $EURUSD reverse I FOMOed into another 2 $ethusd positions at $389 and $386.
Already +17% (+3.5 x initial risk)

Guess what my crystal ball whispers now about sub-$400 levels?

Note to my future self: huge number of traders on @PGerschmann's fb group who are either bearish on $BTC in general, despite the price action, or regret not buying it below $11-12k:

https://twitter.com/wrobelluk/status/1285679370275880961

https://twitter.com/wrobelluk/status/1285679370275880961

After kissing goodbye $250, $400 levels I wouldn't bet my on house on $ETHUSD not dropping below $500.

But the signs are clear: we're face a fresh wave of retail capital joining this new crypto bull market.

sh*tcoins from '17-18 rise by 15%+

Google Trends: $btc, $eth

After kissing goodbye $250, $400 levels I wouldn't bet my on house on $ETHUSD not dropping below $500. But the signs are clear: we're face a fresh wave of retail capital joining this new crypto bull market. sh*tcoins from '17-18 rise by 15%+Google Trends: $btc, $eth

Trading journal update

2 long $ETHUSD positions still open.
Stop losses moved to secure a 5,5 x R (R is my initial risk) and 7xR. Current SL levels: $518, $491

"Hope for the best, plan for the worst"

Out of both $ethusd positions: total gain +16,3 x initial risk.
+ 7,3 x R @ $518
+ 9 x R @ $548

Current state: Thankful for a nice Movember moves

. Waiting for another wave up.

Reading @Nouriel tweets on $BTC, surprised how few understand #DeFi

Out of both $ethusd positions: total gain +16,3 x initial risk. + 7,3 x R @ $518+ 9 x R @ $548Current state: Thankful for a nice Movember moves. Waiting for another wave up. Reading @Nouriel tweets on $BTC, surprised how few understand #DeFi

New position $ethusd opened @ $520

Stop loss: $490
Optimistic target at $720 by the end of the year.

$ethusd position closed
Stopped on Dec 4th at $605 (+2,8 x R) and $575 (1,8 x R). In total +2,3 R is a descent outcome.

Waiting for a retry above $555

"Don't believe me, just watch" edition

Reentered $ethusd at $546 with a tight stop loss of $10 (1R = unit of risk).

Currently, open P&L of this position at 9x initial risk. SL at $590. With buzz around #BTC20k boosting the momentum, my first target of $704 is reachable in 5-8d

I wish I rode this wave perfectly but I can't complain.

Stop loss on previous $ethusd position triggered @ $615 (+7R profit).

Missed the first part of the current wave, reentered @ $655 and with the current SL @ $720, another +2R already booked.

This market is too kind

Now, it feels like early 2017

If I knew my update from yesterday stays up to date literally 1 day, I wouldn't bother posting it :)

So, with $ETHUSD @ $950, my position's open P&L is above 9R, SL moved to $810 (5R).

No targets for now

Now, it feels like early 2017 If I knew my update from yesterday stays up to date literally 1 day, I wouldn't bother posting it :)So, with $ETHUSD @ $950, my position's open P&L is above 9R, SL moved to $810 (5R). No targets for now

Just checked http://trends.google.com and there will be waves

https://twitter.com/LizBitcoin/status/1345839060267491328

Managing the short-term position risk of an asset that's +62% YTD on Jan, 6th is not trivial. Missed a large part of the move in $ETH $ETHUSD after stop loss was triggered @ $920, almost low of the day (but still 8+R profit).

Jumped into this train again @ $1080 (SL: $1120)

This is a good moment to remind myself that there is more than one time frame in play at all times.

Short-term corrections of 30+% are natural so I'm going to gradually take some chips off the table in the coming days but not touching my long term ETHs anytime soon

$$

This is a good moment to remind myself that there is more than one time frame in play at all times. Short-term corrections of 30+% are natural so I'm going to gradually take some chips off the table in the coming days but not touching my long term ETHs anytime soon $$

-30% drop in January (from Jan, 7th high)

Reentering $ETH @ $1375 (SL $1340)

Next position to be added @ $1440 [ ]
Thanks to Robinhood, the decentralized finance #DeFi becomes the meme of the day, short term FOMO trade kicks in 3,2,1 ... [ ]

-30% drop in January (from Jan, 7th high) Reentering $ETH @ $1375 (SL $1340) Next position to be added @ $1440 [ ]Thanks to Robinhood, the decentralized finance #DeFi becomes the meme of the day, short term FOMO trade kicks in 3,2,1 ... [ ]

Stopped out of the previous one: -1R loss
Then +5R captured (from $1350 to $1710)
Then 2 premature attempts at catching the next leg up: -2R.

All in all, +2R. Disciple with risk mgmt = freedom, one step at the time

Now long from $1610 (SL: $1570, crystal ball target at $1930)

Can't stress enough how great applying "disciple equals freedom" mentioned in the previous tweet feels on days like today (ETH is down from $2k to $1550).

Lessons relearned: don't let the current conditions dictate your time-frame. Don't FOMO-chase https://twitter.com/wrobelluk/status/1364328626267783175