Gradually, then suddenly.

Very few of my $macro/fx/stocks friends are paying attention but what& #39;s happening now in the #DeFi space is a perfect "cambrian explosion".

Note to self: my crystal ball whispers it& #39;s probably the last week we see $ETH below 250 USD https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧙‍♂️" title="Männlicher Magier" aria-label="Emoji: Männlicher Magier">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚡️" title="Hochspannungszeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Hochspannungszeichen"> Basic building blocks (wallets, erc20, staking)https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚡️" title="Hochspannungszeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Hochspannungszeichen"> Battle-tested smart contracts https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚡️" title="Hochspannungszeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Hochspannungszeichen"> Killer app: stable coins + #yieldFarming https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚡️" title="Hochspannungszeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Hochspannungszeichen"> Network effects: buidlers, DAOshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚡️" title="Hochspannungszeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Hochspannungszeichen"> Macro env (brrr...)https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚡️" title="Hochspannungszeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Hochspannungszeichen"> Institutional money (early adopters)https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⏳" title="Sanduhr mit fließendem Sand" aria-label="Emoji: Sanduhr mit fließendem Sand">

(I& #39;m biased and positioned properly https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚀" title="Rakete" aria-label="Emoji: Rakete">)
5 days later we& #39;re 25%+ higher but if you look at the weekly chart there& #39;s plenty space for this story to unfold the before major FOMO kicks in: https://twitter.com/sstrazza/status/1287092671127924743">https://twitter.com/sstrazza/...
In spirit of failing in public and getting out of the comfort zone I& #39;ll post my trades here.

$ETHUSD will probably be one of my best calls of 2020 but I commit to publishing spectacular failures as well.

Currently 2 positions open with stop losses at $412, $387.
Both stop losses triggered: out of $ETHUSD for now.
Final result: +49R

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👍" title="Daumen hoch" aria-label="Emoji: Daumen hoch"> Good risk mgmt: (+14R, +5R, +4R, +4R, +24R)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👍" title="Daumen hoch" aria-label="Emoji: Daumen hoch"> Good timing with additional positions
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👎" title="Daumen runter" aria-label="Emoji: Daumen runter"> 2 forced entries at the end of the ride: both -1R losses

Follow the process and score will take care of itself.https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧘‍♂️" title="Mann im Lotossitz" aria-label="Emoji: Mann im Lotossitz">
Aaand it’s gone.

-1R loss, $ethusd stop loss triggered

No positions, won’t chase the rally if it returns above $350 unless a clear risk off sentiment (vix, $eurusd) reverses
With a broad risk off sentiment fading away $ethusd feels like ready for another wave up.

Long position opened at $370.
Stop loss: $355 (2/3) and $340 (1/3)
2 open $ethusd positions finally take off ($395)
Stop losses moved to breakeven + dinner for 2 ($373).

Weekly chart for the context: we& #39;re here not scalping. It& #39;s a marathon, not a sprint.While #DeFi builders keep strengthening Ethereum& #39;s network effects, Paypal joins the party
$ethusd both positions stopped out just above the breakeven (+0.6R)

Seeing equities and $EURUSD reverse I FOMOed into another 2 $ethusd positions at $389 and $386.
Already +17% (+3.5 x initial risk)
Guess what my crystal ball whispers now about sub-$400 levels? https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👨‍🚀" title="Astronaut" aria-label="Emoji: Astronaut">

Note to my future self: huge number of traders on @PGerschmann& #39;s fb group who are either bearish on $BTC in general, despite the price action, or regret not buying it below $11-12k: https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔜" title=""Soon" mit nach rechts zeigendem Pfeil darüber" aria-label="Emoji: "Soon" mit nach rechts zeigendem Pfeil darüber"> https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🌜" title="Dreiviertelmond mit Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Dreiviertelmond mit Gesicht"> https://twitter.com/wrobelluk/status/1285679370275880961">https://twitter.com/wrobelluk...
After kissing goodbye $250, $400 levels I wouldn& #39;t bet my on house on $ETHUSD not dropping below $500.

But the signs are clear: we& #39;re face a fresh wave of retail capital joining this new crypto bull market.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="1⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 1" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 1"> sh*tcoins from & #39;17-18 rise by 15%+
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="2⃣" title="Tastenkappe Ziffer 2" aria-label="Emoji: Tastenkappe Ziffer 2">Google Trends: $btc, $ethhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚀" title="Rakete" aria-label="Emoji: Rakete">
Trading journal update

2 long $ETHUSD positions still open.
Stop losses moved to secure a 5,5 x R (R is my initial risk) and 7xR. Current SL levels: $518, $491

"Hope for the best, plan for the worst"
New position $ethusd opened @ $520

Stop loss: $490
Optimistic target at $720 by the end of the year.
$ethusd position closed
Stopped on Dec 4th at $605 (+2,8 x R) and $575 (1,8 x R). In total +2,3 R is a descent outcome.

Waiting for a retry above $555
"Don& #39;t believe me, just watch" edition

Reentered $ethusd at $546 with a tight stop loss of $10 (1R = unit of risk).

Currently, open P&L of this position at 9x initial risk. SL at $590. With buzz around #BTC20k boosting the momentum, my first target of $704 is reachable in 5-8d
I wish I rode this wave perfectly but I can& #39;t complain.

Stop loss on previous $ethusd position triggered @ $615 (+7R profit).

Missed the first part of the current wave, reentered @ $655 and with the current SL @ $720, another +2R already booked.

This market is too kindhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙏" title="Gefaltete Hände" aria-label="Emoji: Gefaltete Hände">
Now, it feels like early 2017 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🎢" title="Achterbahn" aria-label="Emoji: Achterbahn">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚀" title="Rakete" aria-label="Emoji: Rakete">

If I knew my update from yesterday stays up to date literally 1 day, I wouldn& #39;t bother posting it :)

So, with $ETHUSD @ $950, my position& #39;s open P&L is above 9R, SL moved to $810 (5R).

No targets for now https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer">
Now, it feels like early 2017 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable=https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚀" title="Rakete" aria-label="Emoji: Rakete">If I knew my update from yesterday stays up to date literally 1 day, I wouldn& #39;t bother posting it :)So, with $ETHUSD @ $950, my position& #39;s open P&L is above 9R, SL moved to $810 (5R). No targets for now https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer">" title="Now, it feels like early 2017 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🎢" title="Achterbahn" aria-label="Emoji: Achterbahn">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚀" title="Rakete" aria-label="Emoji: Rakete">If I knew my update from yesterday stays up to date literally 1 day, I wouldn& #39;t bother posting it :)So, with $ETHUSD @ $950, my position& #39;s open P&L is above 9R, SL moved to $810 (5R). No targets for now https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer">" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
Just checked http://trends.google.com"> http://trends.google.com  and there will be waves https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🌊" title="Wasserwelle" aria-label="Emoji: Wasserwelle"> https://twitter.com/LizBitcoin/status/1345839060267491328">https://twitter.com/LizBitcoi...
Managing the short-term position risk of an asset that& #39;s +62% YTD on Jan, 6th is not trivial. Missed a large part of the move in $ETH $ETHUSD after stop loss was triggered @ $920, almost low of the day (but still 8+R profit).

Jumped into this train again @ $1080 (SL: $1120)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="ℹ️" title="Informationsquelle" aria-label="Emoji: Informationsquelle"> This is a good moment to remind myself that there is more than one time frame in play at all times.

Short-term corrections of 30+% are natural so I& #39;m going to gradually take some chips off the table in the coming days but not touching my long term ETHs anytime soon https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🐿️" title="Streifen-Hörnchen" aria-label="Emoji: Streifen-Hörnchen">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🌘" title="Abnehmender Sichelmond Symbol" aria-label="Emoji: Abnehmender Sichelmond Symbol"> $$
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable= This is a good moment to remind myself that there is more than one time frame in play at all times. Short-term corrections of 30+% are natural so I& #39;m going to gradually take some chips off the table in the coming days but not touching my long term ETHs anytime soon https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🐿️" title="Streifen-Hörnchen" aria-label="Emoji: Streifen-Hörnchen">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🌘" title="Abnehmender Sichelmond Symbol" aria-label="Emoji: Abnehmender Sichelmond Symbol"> $$" title="https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="ℹ️" title="Informationsquelle" aria-label="Emoji: Informationsquelle"> This is a good moment to remind myself that there is more than one time frame in play at all times. Short-term corrections of 30+% are natural so I& #39;m going to gradually take some chips off the table in the coming days but not touching my long term ETHs anytime soon https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🐿️" title="Streifen-Hörnchen" aria-label="Emoji: Streifen-Hörnchen">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🌘" title="Abnehmender Sichelmond Symbol" aria-label="Emoji: Abnehmender Sichelmond Symbol"> $$" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👆" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben"> -30% drop in January (from Jan, 7th high) https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
Reentering $ETH @ $1375 (SL $1340) https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
Next position to be added @ $1440 [ ]
Thanks to Robinhood, the decentralized finance #DeFi becomes the meme of the day, short term FOMO trade kicks in 3,2,1 ... [ ]
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable= -30% drop in January (from Jan, 7th high) https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">Reentering $ETH @ $1375 (SL $1340) https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">Next position to be added @ $1440 [ ]Thanks to Robinhood, the decentralized finance #DeFi becomes the meme of the day, short term FOMO trade kicks in 3,2,1 ... [ ]" title="https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👆" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben"> -30% drop in January (from Jan, 7th high) https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">Reentering $ETH @ $1375 (SL $1340) https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">Next position to be added @ $1440 [ ]Thanks to Robinhood, the decentralized finance #DeFi becomes the meme of the day, short term FOMO trade kicks in 3,2,1 ... [ ]" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
Stopped out of the previous one: -1R loss
Then +5R captured (from $1350 to $1710)
Then 2 premature attempts at catching the next leg up: -2R.

All in all, +2R. Disciple with risk mgmt = freedom, one step at the time

Now long from $1610 (SL: $1570, crystal ball target at $1930)
Can& #39;t stress enough how great applying "disciple equals freedom" mentioned in the previous tweet feels on days like today (ETH is down from $2k to $1550).

Lessons relearned: don& #39;t let the current conditions dictate your time-frame. Don& #39;t FOMO-chase https://twitter.com/wrobelluk/status/1364328626267783175">https://twitter.com/wrobelluk...
-- Trading journal update --
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">+7R realised from the previous trade (Long $ETHUSD @ $1610, stop loss triggered @ $1930)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙅‍♂️" title="Mann gestikuliert „Nicht OK“" aria-label="Emoji: Mann gestikuliert „Nicht OK“">-1 R loss realised: FOMO-buy after the previous stophttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👆" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben"> @ $1970 failed to turn into trend contin.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🍿" title="Popcorn" aria-label="Emoji: Popcorn">No open position now (apart from the long-term bags)
-- Trading journal update --https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable=+7R realised from the previous trade (Long $ETHUSD @ $1610, stop loss triggered @ $1930)https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙅‍♂️" title="Mann gestikuliert „Nicht OK“" aria-label="Emoji: Mann gestikuliert „Nicht OK“">-1 R loss realised: FOMO-buy after the previous stophttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👆" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben"> @ $1970 failed to turn into trend contin.https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🍿" title="Popcorn" aria-label="Emoji: Popcorn">No open position now (apart from the long-term bags)" title="-- Trading journal update --https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">+7R realised from the previous trade (Long $ETHUSD @ $1610, stop loss triggered @ $1930)https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙅‍♂️" title="Mann gestikuliert „Nicht OK“" aria-label="Emoji: Mann gestikuliert „Nicht OK“">-1 R loss realised: FOMO-buy after the previous stophttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👆" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach oben"> @ $1970 failed to turn into trend contin.https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🍿" title="Popcorn" aria-label="Emoji: Popcorn">No open position now (apart from the long-term bags)" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
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