How I know Dems are still getting bad campaign advice https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1285564623928918016

This will make my 2022 forecasting easy

1. Happy to elaborate. In this environment, if you can not win over pretty much EVERY moderate & Indie off the pandemic mismanagement by running tying your R opponent to that & Trump- I got nothing for you. Thus a vote like this has no additional value on that bucket. No, it's

2. not going to cost her votes either, bc again, all that matters is Trump & pandemic. But why I said it makes it easier for me to tell where things will be in 2022 is that its a big tell that the type of messaging advice the frontline mods are getting from the big consultants

3. prob won't change. Coming out of Trump if its still grounded in the defensive "embarrassed" D model, rather than this new offensive, attack "limited govn't, "attack fiscal conservatism's economic record, model & paint the GOP as a party of extremist, which is the transitional,

4. offensive moderate messaging model that I'm arguing Dems need (and frankly this is my unique articulation of it, but I am certainly not alone in this, there are other people making similar arguments, what makes mine unique is that I not really arguing a movement to the left on

5. policy need accompany it, bc frankly, the median voter, policy-wise is right there at the center of the Democratic Party's policy platform. And also bc, far left policies, like far right ones, are extremist policies that lack broad support. Now, sometimes minority viewpoints

6. do become majority, that's a convo for another day. Today I'm arguing that the moderate Dem policy position never gets forcefully argued for which is a shame bc its pretty damn popular. So I'm trying to get moderate Dems to stop telling people they are into things like fiscal

7. conservatism & instead start prosecuting the case against fiscal conservatism, so esp the working class (whites) can find out what a spectularly shitty record it has. BC right now, the GOP candidates tell them its good for them. And then these mod Ds tell them, I'm a fiscal

8. conservative too! And the sick irony is, actually there's 2 the first being that "fiscal conservative" has completely decimated the working class in America, not only directly by dismantling unions and the minimum wage hikes, but also indirectly by sabotaging health care for

9. for 30 extra years, screwing people out of paid family leave, and making sure workers can't have any paid sick days. And yet. you have this prevailing view point out of the greatest data wizards/consultants/leaders in the Dem Party- a line they all parrot that HAS to originate

10. in some GOP lab where ALL I mean literally ALL say "Democrats abandoned the working the class" or some variant of this. And I'm looking at them and I'm thinking, uhhhhh are we watching the same movie??? I mean, the Dems, no doubt, and as this thread makes clear, have done an

11. absolutely shittastic job of TELLING the working class what they've been trying, and been getting blocked from by their GOP friends, to do for the working class for 30 years. They haven't told them these things, you see, bc when they run candidates in these areas that really

12. have a chance, the consultants tell them, "tell the voters you're a fiscal conservative, highlight that you're in the military, and don't say anything about being a Democrat." That DOES make it a little hard to market your party's successes, which while blocked a lot, do

13. exist and which pretty much no voters know about. For example, maybe the Bernie student loan people would be less pissy about student loans if they knew how much shittier student loans were before the big reform packages the Ds passed in 2010-sure as hell changed my life!

14. Or maybe Democrats should tell voters in states where Medicaid got expanded, and the uninsured rate collapsed, and so did hospital uninsured losses, and probably massively better health outcomes. That might have been useful. The extra $600 people got on this unemployment

15. weekly for this pandemic- for the middle class- that kept people current on car payments and mortgages and you know who did that shit, you insisted on it, who made THAT provision their deal breaker?? Democrats did. Y'all might want voters to know that. So, my point is, if

16. the campaign messaging and voter targeting strategies don't get modernized, &the frontliners campaign on the same old Dem playbook, my assumption is that the turnout surges powering the Dem and left leaning Indies surges will recede like they did post -2008. Its an assumption

17. 1 of the most fascinating findings thus far for me for my research (other than the fact that if you start killing of upwards of 100K Americans via gross incompetence, more voters become persuadable even in polarization) was the finding that GOP turnout did not recede in 2018

18. In my original theory, I had expected Republicans to pull back on their participation since they controlled the full government like Democrats had in 2010 (that was why I was less accurate with my senate picks- which BTW I never actually modeled, I qualitatively handicapped

19. them). I thought that is perhaps Ds bot really big turnout in MO and IN and R turnout was lower @clairecmc and Donelly would pull it out & in fact they did hit huge Dem turn out, but instead of receding, GOP turnout also increased in '18 https://newrepublic.com/article/156402/hate-ballot

20. That GOP turnout, its going to be there no matter what, Even with the pandemic. And its going to be there in 2022. This is why I argue Democrats really need to modernize their thinking in terms of campaigning and especially how to run the "moderate" campaign.