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I have an oped in today's @nytimes on the China-Iran partnership deal. Beijing's relationship w/Iran is its most strategically important in the Mideast, and will likely deepen as time passes. But it won't be without difficulties... 1/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/21/opinion/china-iran.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Each side faces conundrums in dealing with the other - China wants to avoid picking a fight with the US over peripheral matters, or conspicuously aligning itself against Iran's regional rivals; Iran is resentful of dependence on external powers. 2/
The United States should seek to exacerbate each side's challenge in deepening ties with the other - exposing the cost to Tehran of choosing reliance on China over compromise with the West, and enlisting regional allies to prevent China from bolstering Iran without penalty. 3/
Like many of you I'm wary of threat inflation; as we focus more on China there will be a temptation to tie issues to it amid competition for resources/attention. We'll need to address China-Iran ties while keeping the issue in proportion and maintaining our strategic focus. 4/
The deepening of the Iran-China relationship may be inevitable, but that doesn't mean that we should let it be easy or cost-free for either Tehran or Beijing. /End
