The now concluded European Council summit produced an outcome that has been widely welcomed. But in one crucial respect it failed miserably – and predictably: in protecting the rule of law and the values enshrined in Article 2 TEU

A thread on why this colossal failure matters.1/

First, on the MFF/Recovery Fund. This is to be welcomed. It is no small feat to get 27 different states to agree on money, with all the pressures thrown up by domestic politics. This time it was even more crucial as many economies are on life support because of the pandemic.
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It is not just about Orban and his cronies.

In Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Romania over the past decade, EU funding has become the primary source of wealth generation by unscrupulous rent-seeking networks closely connected to governmental power.
Huge win for them here.
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There is no better explanation of EU's 'authoritarian equilibrium' than that provided by @rdanielkelemen
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13501763.2020.1712455?journalCode=rjpp20
This 'authoritarian equilibrium' has been massively reinforced by EUCO outcome: rule of law has been banished to level of non-existing priority.
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The most important outcome of EUCO will be to give carte blanche to the EU’s autocrats to continue building their repressive regimes. Hungary and Poland fought a fierce reargued action to prevent rule of law conditionality being attached to the budget/recovery fund. They won.
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Imp. to understand that the model of autocracy now flourishing in the EU is a full-on takeover of the state. The ‘autocrats playbook’ rather operates through ‘salami-slicing’ of otherwise pluralist institutions: academia, media and, especially the courts.
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EUCO will likely be back a year or more from now needing to shore up still ailing economies. ECB support is also crucial within Eurozone. But this recovery fund is simply too inadequate to provide the necessary turbo boost the EU economy needs.
4/

Bulgarians have been protesting for almost 2 wks against the outrageous corruption of Boiko Borissov’s GERB government. EU oversight of financial misappropriation in Bulgaria has been laughable. Boiko's shadowy oligarchic thugs are laughing all the way to the (Swiss?) bank.
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The EU’s main political groupings place great priority on the political ballast provided by having rogue political parties like Fidesz within their ranks in European Council/ European Parliament. All three big groupings have provided protection to rotten political parties.
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The reduction in grants is unwelcome but I can live with it. Given that the EU will likely be playing cat + mouse with Covid 19 for at least the next year, it is unlikely that the 750bn recov fund will be enough to provide the floor EU states need to effect genuine recovery.
3/

I know some argue EUCO outcome hardwires new supranational features into the system, via new tax raising vehicles/Commission role therein, but hard to see overall outcome as anything but a triumph for intergovernmental decision-making.

That is v evident in rule of law sphere.
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