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The recovery fund is a big step forward, to my mind. 390 bn in grants is lower than France/Germany originally proposed. But the transfers are bigger to Southern Europe than the Commission proposal (from 2022).
The EU is borrowing over the long term, with the money not fully repaid until 2058, and a smooth path of repayment. Suggests transfers of less than 1% GDP to Italy per annum, so not huge, but nice to have.
The rule of law mechanism has been can-kicked, but will be proposed by the Commission and adopted by QMV. Again, not bad, as Orbán won't have a veto.
The Commission is going to come up with new taxes. Recycled plastics tax gets the go-ahead. Will propose carbon border tax, ETS expansion, digital tax, financial transaction tax. Doubtful the latter two will be approved. And CBA and ETS will probably be modest.
The conditionality seems ... sensible? Plans approved by QMV (although questionable how much scrutiny they will receive). Council will discuss if the Dutch/Germans are unhappy with expenditure later in the MFF, but the Commission will have the final say. But no vetoes.
This isn't a revolution, but if you'd told me last year that the EU would be borrowing 390 bn and transfering it recession-hit countries, I'd have been very surprised.
One final thought for us British pro-Europeans. Would this have been possible with the UK in the EU? I've always thought the 'UK-wrecking-federalism' story was overblown, but this is giving me pause.
Final final thought. It's not a huge amount of money macro-economically speaking. But a) ECB asset purchases are keeping spreads down and b) the fund is a powerful political signal to markets. I don't think we'll see another 2012, with spreads getting out of hand.
