#EUCO has agreed a #deal! It reveals and further intensifies many conflicting tendencies in EU integration we have seen over the last couple of years. The big question is how these conflicting developments will play out in future. Short thread (1/6) https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-leaders-reach-deal-on-coronavirus-recovery-fund/

First, the EU continues its journey towards federalisation. Creating new own resources as levies on plastic waste, carbon & the digital economy is potentially a paradigm shift about the fiscal role of the EU level. *Per se* probably more important than the 390 bn in grants. (2/6)

Second, against initial signals, the EU has retained its status as THE problem-solving venue for cross-border issues in Europe. In stark comparison to the eurozone crisis, forum shopping & differentiated integration were (so far) avoided. This clearly strengthens the EU. (3/6)

Third, the EU's #ruleoflaw problem remains untackled & may intensify given new EU-level funds. The political logics that compel leaders to appease autocrats are unbroken. Not all is lost yet: but if mechanism is not agreed for this #MFF, autocrats get seven more years. (4/6)

Fourth, federalisation does not necessarily imply supranational democratisation. The last four days have revealed the strength of intergovernmentalist logic (like last year's Commission process). Commission & EP appear very weak. Are they willing/able to challenge Council? (5/6).

Fifth, EU politics is becoming more & more politicised domestically. Leaders fear to lose elections & have to "deliver great #deal". This greatly intensifies conflict, especially under intergovernmental logic. While unsustainable, leaders are unwilling to reform governance.

As so often with the EU, these trends point in different directions & paint colourful pictures of what might come: from breakdown to a loose federation without democracy to a democratic state - all seems possible! This is the fascination of EU politics! (6/6)