Hot take: it’s an important conversation for Dems, but focusing on the abortion debate this election year will lose potential swing voters who are sick of Trump’s immorality and poor leadership but usually vote Republican due to a few hot-button issues.

Let me just offer some polls as food for thought in regards to making abortion a central campaign issue (as opposed to focusing on it after the election, for example). First, let’s look at some recent national polls. It’s an issue that divides Dems and Reps but not cleanly.

The majority of people nationwide lie somewhere between making abortion fully legal or fully illegal, preferring legal abortion with restrictions. This is even true for the majority of Dems. https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/730183531/poll-majority-want-to-keep-abortion-legal-but-they-also-want-restrictions

Strategists consider suburban women to be a key factor in this year’s election, like 2018. It stands to reason that women’s reproductive rights could be an important factor for them. However, it’s not that simple when it comes to white women and swing states.

Republican women and Democratic women have sharp divides on the subject. Republican women are more strongly anti-abortion than Republican men. Focusing too much on this one issue could alienate voters either way as compared to other overall issues.

This is all still nationwide polling, though. Electoral swing state polling is more important for presidential elections.

So, what do the polls on abortion say in swing states? Unsurprisingly, they’re pretty divided. Most don’t have a majority one way or the other.

Regarding restrictions, a large majority of Floridians supported requiring parental consent for minors to obtain abortions even though the previous poll shows a majority of Floridians supporting legal abortion.

Kasich is from Ohio, which continues to be another key swing state. I think these two polls were about a year apart? Recent restrictive abortion laws have made ensuring legal abortion more popular, but it’s still divisive.

Then there’s Virginia and Georgia. Southern states are especially dicey on this subject. I didn’t look up North Carolina and Texas, but you get the picture.

This thread is just a snapshot of a few key states. I completely understand why it’s an important issue for people, and I’m not trying to downplay that. However, for Dems, elevating this issue in election season has a real potential to harm Dem candidates’ chances.

In other words, too much focus on the issue of abortion could backfire for pro-choice advocates if it scares swing voters away from the candidates that support choice. That doesn’t mean that advocates should just be quiet, but it may mean that candidates will be for now.