Thread: I’m thrilled to release “Estimated Contribution,” an attempt to measure a player’s total impact in the #WNBA . I detail how it works here:

https://positiveresidual.com/analysis/estimated-contributions-in-the-wnba/

Below is a snapshot of the top 20 overall performances. The entire table is at:

https://positiveresidual.com/shiny/wnba/ 

Perhaps it comes as no surprise that Maya Moore and Cynthia Cooper appear multiple times on the leaderboard. Their multi-season dominance has recently been discussed in great depth by @Herring_NBA and @Neil_Paine:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/maya-moore-gave-up-more-to-fight-for-social-justice-than-almost-any-athlete/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-to-give-basketballs-other-goat-her-due/

Like most models, Estimated Contribution is built with multi-season Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM). But it's hard to use RAPM that spans over a decade for the WNBA. So instead I adapt the approach used by @DSMok1 and @James_Brocato for BPM 2.0: https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html 

Specifically, I use three sets of 5-year RAPM from 2003-2017. It's informed by a simple prior based on team quality and player workload. I also apply a "luck adjustment" to account for random variation in 3-point and free throw shooting.

The WNBA Estimated Contribution model also draws inspiration from @NateSilver538 / @FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR, particularly the way it constructs the on/off component.

https://positiveresidual.com/analysis/estimated-contributions-in-the-wnba/#OnOff_Components

I find that the RAPTOR approach works better than standard on/off ratings.