I get asked a lot whether campaigns actually matter. My answer? Campaign staff are a lot like the sweepers in the sport of curling. Its a lot of furious motion w minimal results. But sometimes minimal results make all the difference. https://thedispatch.com/p/do-campaigns-matter

"The underlying dynamics of an election cycle (the economy, the popularity of the president, national events driving the news cycle) are like the 44-pound “stone” hurtling toward the (please hold while I google what the, you know, bullseye thing is called) ... “house.”"

"The campaign staff are like the guys with the brooms that are frantically sweeping the ice as this 44-pound rock slides along the ice...a lot of elections are won by 6 points and there’s nothing the losing (or winning) team’s sweepers could have done to change the outcome."

"But some races come down to just a couple points...in the 2018 congressional midterms, “the margin of victory separating Democratic and Republican candidates for the House of Representatives was under 1% in nine districts and under 2% in 10 more.”

“Door-to-door canvassing increases turnout by 1.0% point, direct mail increases turnout by 0.7% points, and phone calls increase turnout by 0.4% points..And what about campaign’s biggest expenditure—TV ads? ...it can have an effect—of maybe around .8%."

So next time you see a pundit talking about a campaign’s innovative strategy to reach swing voters, listen for the sound of a broom on the ice and imagine 44 pounds of granite gliding past....