/THREAD The #BlueJays aren't playing in Toronto in 2020, and Buffalo will reportedly be their new home (unless they can find a park that better meets MLB standards). Here's what fantasy players would need to know about Sahlen Field...

Sahlen Park fences are shallow and Buffalo elevation is above average. That's generally a recipe for a hitters' park.

Fence Distance: 4th shortest (est.)
Fence Height: 11th lowest (est.)
Altitude: 8th highest
Batter's Eye: More or less one solid color

In Triple-A, Sahlen Field has always played neutral or a bit pitcher-friendly, which I found odd after looking at the generous dimensions.

Of course, park factors are all relative to the other parks in the league. If Coors Field was in a league where every other team played on the moon, Coors would be an enormous pitchers' park.

Their Triple-A league has lots of fields with short fences (LF in Durham is 305 ft!) and higher altitude. Sahlen's fences look slightly *deeper* than IL average. HR factor is still lower than we'd expect based on relative fence depth but more in line than I originally thought.

The only current MLB parks with LF and RF under 330 ft, CF under 405 ft, and LC+RC under 750 ft are Great American and Progressive... both very strong hitters' parks.

Guaranteed Rate and T-Mobile are also fairly close. Both +HR, but T-Mobile is a strong pitchers' park overall.

Since 1990, seven other parks also meet that criteria. Their average park factor: neutral for runs, +2% HR. Fences were a bit shorter overall back then (conveying less of a relative advantage), but it goes to show what I always say: parks are more than just fences.

So how do we project the #BlueJays in Buffalo's Sahlen Field? With the data we have and wide error bars. Physical attributes help us project parks better than guessing or assuming they're average, but it's an imprecise science. Physical attributes only tell us so much.

Using just physical attributes, Sahlen Field projects as the #4 hitters' park in MLB. Given the AAA HR rate was a bit below fence-expectations and mixed historical comps, I added some extra regression into THE BAT's final park factor. #4 is a big stand with so many unknowns.

Here's THE BAT's best guess for Sahlen Field (using just physical attributes and then the final projection after regressing a bit more for AAA and comps), side-by-side with Rogers Centre Park Factors:

Ultimately, I'm projecting Sahlen Field pretty close to Rogers Centre. It's not exciting, and I wouldn't be surprised if it winds up being super hitter friendly, but I'm not quite willing to go out on that limb given all the data and given that parks are more than just fences.

The worst part is over 30 games, the sample will be too small to draw any real conclusions, even if it winds up playing extreme hitter or pitcher friendly. But that's what projecting is: doing the best you can with what you have, and trusting you gain an edge long-term.

Added: It's also worth noting that, weather-wise, Buffalo would have the 4th-lowest temperatures/air density for August and September (using Toronto's weather as a proxy), and @DFSMLBWeather says prevailing wind is blowing in, which would explain the Triple-A factors a bit