1/6 We are in a new Cold War. The US sees China as its enemy. Why the change? Before the 2008 financial crisis it believed China's rise was unsustainable. They were wrong; instead the 2008 crisis undermined the US. So it now sees China's rise as a threat to its global hegemony.

2/6 The US cannot allow any other country to be No 1. It is part of its DNA. It is unimaginable. That is why it has turned nasty. The hysteria. The panic. The US is an extreme case of hegemonic angst. The West has ruled the world for 200 years. It cannot allow anyone to usurp it.

3/6 But the writing is on the wall. The ultimate test is whether a country can deliver success for its people: economic growth, rising living standards, stability. In 1980 China was 5% of the US economy. It is now on the verge of overtaking it.

4/6 It has become hugely innovative. Its tech companies rival those of Silicon Valley. That is why the US is scared of Huawei. Its education system is far superior: look at the PISA surveys. In the face of Covid-19, the US has failed miserably and China has succeeded remarkably.

5/6 Covid-19 is a test of governance. The impact of America's failure and China's success will have huge long-term effects. The 2008 financial crisis led to a major shift in economic power from the US to China. The pandemic will produce a far bigger shift from the US to China.

6/6 The US is in deep trouble: it has lost its economic dynamism, it is deeply divided, it has turned inwards, it has retreated into its bunker. It is failing. And in desperation, as its crisis grows deeper, it is lashing out and blaming China for all its problems.