On July 2nd, I wrote a post about how I was expecting the TX situation to turn in a better direction in a few weeks, because of a sudden massive increase in mask usage I observed from going around town. In Houston, 7-day new hospitalizations trending down. https://theprepared.com/blog/future-of-covid-is-a-roller-coaster/

We're going to keep doing this roller coaster thing, as spikes induce behavior changes that then turn the curve back around, and then ppl go back out spread picks back up, and then curve turns around again.

This tweet got more traction than I was expecting, so I do want to clarify: deaths lag hospitalizations, so even if this downtrend stays intact, the deaths curve will keep going higher for a while. It won't be as severe as last time (lower mortality per case), but still

The UT Austin model is projecting deaths to keep climbing. https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/ 

This is a good point, & it also reinforces what I wrote in that post linked in the OT: to know what's going to happen in a few weeks, just look outside. If everyone really let their guard down on July 4th, we'll see the curve go back up. https://twitter.com/JustInTime_2020/status/1285211917880090625

We have a lot of control over the curve. What we do matters. If we stay distanced, mask up, wash hands, etc. The different curves (cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths) lag mass behavior changes by weeks, but the behavior => the curve.