Hey guys, guess what? It’s [Thread Time! 🥳]

Though it pains me to do it, this thread I am listing to Dr Keith Watson (a.k.a. TESLACharts)’s Chartcast with Trevor Milton! 🤡

Here is the link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3k6dPFxNYwo2N5Ojl66xTc?si=wT1pWVb-ThORyj04xoQGGg

⚠️🚨 *Don’t try this at home!* 🚨⚠️
If you ever consider taking hallucinogenics, DON’T! You’ll end up with this! 🤣
Seriously, what the fuck is this? Lol

My favourite part: “Boom!” 💥
Why is he talking like that?
So Trevor went to college just to ‘get girls’. Yikes!

Also, 5 companies? I think you’re forgetting about Bluegentech LLC again Mr Milton!
Also, his dad is his biggest cheerleader?
Go Bill!
Oh my golly gosh! Trevor can’t read? BWAHAHAHA, that’s the stupidest shit yet! 🤣

This guy is the founder of 6 companies FFS! No wonder half of them failed!

The same guy who can ‘run circles round 30 PhDs’ and ‘out-Elon Elon’ can’t fucking read?! Fuck me, is this real life? 🥴
(Sorry, I’m very dirty-minded, lol)
Trevor says he is like a Twitter child before Twitter existed.

Umm, yeah, ‘run circles round PhDs’, sure.
Nikola is about as financially sustainable as using lights to power solar panels to power the lights! 🤦🏻‍♂️

No revenue and big losses? That speaks for itself!
I do agree with the premise here. You can’t have mainstream environmental sustainability without financial sustainability and a reliance on credits is bad.

However, below is a result of the most subsidised product ever: oil.
We must stop subsidising dirty fossil fuels well before we ever stop subsidising renewables!
People hate that EVs get tax credits but at the moment it’s more than fair, especially when it makes everyone healthier, smarter and happier.
Besides, Tesla gets the fewest subsidies.
Trevor, you’ve failed!
Hydrogen is too inefficient and too low scale to be competitive. Even BEV trucks don’t become cost competitive until you look at a multi-year horizon!
What is this nonsense? Nikola hasn’t ever actually produced hydrogen, to my knowledge. Their ‘biggest hydrogen station’ is storage only right now.

How do you drop the costs from $16/kg to under $3/kg?

And how does including it in the lease help in any way?
Sounds fishy to me.
Trevor really likes to compare his Utah trucking and fuelling business model to Amazon’s online shopping and logistics model. Funnily enough, Trevor did try to compete with Amazon with http://upillar.com  and failed! Badly!
His reason: all the money was on the coast. 🤦🏻‍♂️
— Ok, this is about as far I can save the thread as a draft without Twitter crashing on me. At this point I’m only an eight through the whole thing and it will take a long bloody while before I finish. Bear with me! I’ll RT when it’s done. —
Building a fuel cell is a commodity?!
No! This lack of desire to develop what’s essentially core technology is appaling! If Tesla had this attitude they’d have failed years ago!
It’s ‘in the billions of billions of dollars’? No, a well to wheel efficiency that high is impossible for hydrogen! No amount of money will ever break the Laws of Physics!
Wrong. If Nikola Insider is to be believed (I certainly believe him), a big supplier, Worthington Industries, very suddenly pulled out of the Natural Gas operation, forcing Nikola to come up with something else. They went with hydrogen, despite having no clue how to do it.
Also, does Trevor really think 50% efficiency is ‘doable’? That’s *shit!* And that’s just for the fuel cell! In comparison, Tesla’s batteries and Motor combined are over 90% efficient!
Nikola’s own fuel cells aren’t even 60% efficient? 😂😂😂
That’s so bad!
Wow! So much wrong with this.
Does Trevor actually think the fossil fuel grid is done by internal combustion? What the fuck? Lol

Expect another thread for this clip alone.
My goodness, I’m only a fifth of the way through this thing! 😅
How to Bring the Cost of Hydrogen Down in 4 Easy Steps:
1. Own it
2. Distribute it
3. Take the revenue from the oil company
4. Pre-sell the route
Now, your chicken and egg is ready to consume!

LMAO this is not how Drive costs down! Owning it goes a small way but the rest? No
If you really want to bring the cost down, you’ve got to bring electricity costs down and have better engineering. Problem is, unless you own the electricity generation, anyone can use the lower costs and no amount of engineering will make it cheaper than the electricity!
So this ‘transient driving’ applies to pretty much every Badger FCEV owner.
Hahaha, they’re not going to have a reliable hydrogen network for five, six, seven years? Who in their right mind will buy that?!
Tesla Charts asks how they managed to get hydrogen from $16/kg to $3/kg. Trevor than proceeds with 10 minutes of *not answering the question!* I’m sure you don’t need to head that, so here are the highlights:
First, he mentions his investors and says that they ask how Nikola gets the costs down. Doesn’t answer the question.
He then laughs at his own joke.
Second, he chats shit about ARKInvest and says that he’s got 7 years’ experience of driving hydrogen costs down. This is bullshit as Nikola didn’t even pivot to hydrogen until December 2016. At best, that’s 4 years!
Third, he says there’s been a 5-10% increase in efficiency and admits that this isn’t a big contributor.
Fourth, he says that his dad told him he has to ‘Out-checkmate them ... out-chess them ... put them in checkmate’
Sounds like he’s never played Chess in his life!
Fifth, he says that practically zero hydrogen stations use the same standard. I don’t know how true that is.

Trevor says that by Nikola standardising the stations he’s gotten from $50-$60million per station to $14million.

His investor presentation from April has it much higher
so forgive me for not believing him at all.
Also, this does not correlate strongly with a lower per kg hydrogen cost as that’s almost all operational costs!
Sixth, he talks about the electrolysis using water or an alkaline solution, later saying he will use predominantly alkaline solution.
Seventh, he talks about load balancing and grid balancing. Load balance, according to Trevor, means a stable load over the whole day and grid balance, according to Trevor, means being able to siphon off excess grid energy.
He says the complete standardisation is the key. Now he says he could get below $10million per station. Again, this doesn’t mean much for per kg costs.
BabyCharts then talks about Nel hydrogen, saying that the factory where they will make electrolysed for Nikola has yet to be built.
Wow, this is so disingenuous from Trevor! First off, $NKLA investors, know that the 100% green hydrogen will be a myth, at least initially.
Secondly, how the fuck can it be cleaner than the grid if the electricity comes from the grid?
Surely, it would be multiple times dirtier!
Honestly, I can think of no explanation for this claim. The efficiency of hydrogen production by electrolysis is such that it cannot be cleaner than it’s electricity source. This is true of anything not 100% efficient!

What the hell is Trevor on about?!
Wow, once again, there’s so much wrong with this! [Expect another thread]
A quick rebuttal though:
No, it is easier to grid balancing with batteries than hydrogen
This doesn’t take decades to understand. If so, why are you talking about it?
Hydrogen is multiple times less efficient.
The electricity used to create hydrogen is no different to that able to be used by BEVs. Using BEV numbers from cities is so disingenuous!
Nikola does not have the most advanced BEV truck in the world!
The Tre has the largest battery in
the world? You even say yourself that the Tesla battery is bigger. What the fuck, Trevor?
You are not hydrogen experts (no hydrogen patents) and you are definitely not great battery experts!
The truth hurts but I’m on the side spreading it, not you, hence why you blocked me.
The weight penalty is a fiction. Tesla’s Semi will have weight parity or close to weight parity with Diesel, which is less than hydrogen.
No, I don’t want your tentacles. 🤢
Yet more bullshit. Also expect these next few clips to be in their own, much more in-depth thread.
The problem is that Trevor has a lot of false assumptions, chief among which is that Tesla is using grid energy. This is not true. Elon himself said that every Megacharger will have batteries and solar panels, effectively making each charger its own microgrid, $.07/kWh guaranteed
In the case of companies charging short range on the city, this will be more expensive (though they can still buy their own solar and battery systems) but Trevor recognises that BEVs are the only things that work in cities. In the cases where hydrogen can work, Tesla’s solution
is far better and far cheaper.

A business model based on false assumptions is bound to fail!
Of course the power companies haven’t agreed to it, Tesla isn’t using the power companies! They are using Tesla Solar and Tesla Megapacks, no utility needed!
Without that, it likely would be financially unsustainable to guarantee such a low price.

Trevor’s assumptions are wrong!
Honestly though, how hard is it to rewatch the Tesla Semi unveiling? It’s hard to miss first time around but if you listen out for it, it becomes pretty damn clear!
I’ve already adressed this multiple times now and Trevor still hasn’t learned. I don’t want to go through it all again so read this thread if you don’t already know why Trevor’s claims about grid batteries is so dumb!
This is painfully dumb!
One thing I haven’t mentioned too often though is that having solar panels + batteries at your chargers actually means you have three potential revenue sources:
1) Selling energy to trucks
2) Selling energy to the grid
3) (Rare) Buying negatively priced excess energy
With this in mind, a huge Megacharger makes a lot more financial sense. Also, it doesn’t take a genius to realise that it’s much better at grid stabilisation than hydrogen, namely for it’s practically instant charge speeds and superior efficiency.
For comparison, a Megacharger will be much cheaper than an equivalent hydrogen plant, both to build and to operate!
TC saying this to the same guy who said he can’t read is so fucking hilarious!
Also, barbecue proponent tanks and heavy duty trucks are quite different.
Volumetric density advantage doesn’t really exist for hydrogen. In fact, with the tank arrangement, the Tesla probably has
more free space. Also, the ‘hydrogen weight advantage’ is something born of ignorance and not true of Nikola vs Tesla!
If I had a $TSLA share for every time I had to say that this ‘weight advantage’ simply doesn’t exist, I’d be a millionaire already!
Tesla should use an OEM? 🤣🤣😂🤣🤦🏻‍♂️

You don’t think Elon would have liked it if an OEM built all the EVs?
Problem is, after seeing GM crush all but a handful of EV1s, you’d be a fool to trust OEMs, especially as they were incentivised against EVs.
Now though, Tesla’s desire to do everything in-house with zero compromises has made them the most agile and advanced OEM in the entire industry!
No OEM would have gotten this far!

Sure, maybe Tesla could have done with some expert advice but from something like Lean Design,
not an OEM who would want them to fail!
‘Why should we work with you?’ is not an unreasonable question.

Are we truly meant to believe that IVECO made a deal without asking what’s in it for them?

(I’m sure this isn’t the case but it bloody well sounds like it)
I honestly believe Nikola went to every truck OEM they could until,one desperate enough to work with them said yes.

I’m not a trucker but I’ve heard that IVECO’s trucks are pretty poor. By the way, 50 years of legacy experience doesn’t count for much, as we’ve learned.
Also, ignoring alleged Ponzi rewards, what is in this for IVECO?
I don’t imagine the Tre has much profit margin or will be that successful so what am I missing?
Or is it truly as dumb as it appears?
Nikola’s corporate diversity is shocking! With the exception of two people on the board, only one of whom is part of management, they’re all white men!

Now, I don’t believe in diversity for diversity’s sake but no way is this a proportional distribution of talent!
I’d have to do more digging but I’d wager that none of these people are queer either. Nikola isn’t the only culprit here but they sure aren’t leading by example!
Next bit, Georgia talks about SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) acquisitions a.k.a. Bootleg IPOs.
There aren’t many legitimate reasons to use a SPAC. Usually they are used because the process is faster and there is less scrutiny, something that’s great if you’re
in desperate need of cash.
SPACs tend to be used in bull markets and typically perform poorly after a short while. Many see them as an illegitimate way to IPO.
The more you analyse Nikola, the worst it looks. By the way, watching Trevor on an interview, podcast or IG live is not analysis!

I’ve quoted the S-1 verbatim before and still have had Nikola clowns call it paid hate. 🤦🏻‍♂️

Do your research!
Also, the business model isn’t difficult to understand at all, it just has so many false assumptions that it doesn’t make sense and cannot work as I see it.

It’s not by lack of understanding that I am skeptical of this company. In fact, it’s quite the reverse!
Who else remembers when Trevor got really pissed off when an investor sold 1.5 million shares? LMAO
And then Worthington sold another 5 million
And today the stock price is down 20%!

Seems like everyone’s leaving, Trevor.
They’re gonna be as big as Amazon if they can execute on what they say the will in the next two years? Hahaha, I’m dying!

In two years time the first hundred Tres may start to roll out and Badger may be soon to be on sale but that’s all!
In two years they won’t have even sold a single molecule of hydrogen!

Even at full scale, there’s no way they’ll be bigger than Amazon! Even Tesla, which has many more products is only worth a fraction of Amazon!

This guy’s taking magic mushrooms or something! 🍄
Fuck! Prior to VectoIQ no investor had picked apart their technology?! (Besides IVECO a bit with the Tre)

Bosch only looked at the supply chain?! And here Trevor has been bragging about all these partners scrutinising them! It’s just not really true!
I have doubts that they really didn’t want Trevor to be both Chairman and CEO. Reality is Trevor just cba because he “can’t read ...”.
Also, I may be wrong but I swear Mark was already chairman at that time.
My bad, he was ‘President’
So Trevor chose not to be CEO? Wow!
Although, this ‘Executive Chairman’ arrangement sounds like it could function exactly like a CEO-Chairman. What was his excuse again? Not too much control?
Yeah, and now they’ve basically made him company god!
Reality is he just could not be arsed to do hard work. Far more interesting in going on interviews and Twitter rants!
I like how Trevor’s reasoning why he stepped down as CEO basically amounts to ‘they didn’t trust me’. 🤣
Hey $NKLA investors: $1billion “is not enough”! Nikola expects to need to raise more money, please be aware of this!

Also, that $5-10 million burn rate is for recurring costs. Nikola also has a huge sum of all one-time costs!
‘Without the government credits coming in to prop us up’
Bitch, please! You’ve taken a Coronavirus relief loan for fuck’s sake!
What. The. Fuck. Is. This. Outro?
And with that, I’m done! It’s taken over a day and I need a fucking break, lol.

Goodbye for now!
You can follow @Nikola_Truth.
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