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The FPL Talismen GW38+ Free Hit Guide In this thread we'll be breaking down who we will be favouring or potentially avoiding for our GW38+ FH.
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The Keeper Selection Pope (5.1m) v Martinez (4.3m)
At this point it seems the two main options in goal for GW38+ are Martinez (4.4m) and Pope (5.1m)
Martinez is a lot cheaper but statistically heās still a very viable option. 4.3 points per game compared to 4.6 for Pope represents good value considering Ederson's average is 3.6
Martinez is a lot cheaper but statistically heās still a very viable option. 4.3 points per game compared to 4.6 for Pope represents good value considering Ederson's average is 3.6
19 saves in 3 games v LEI, TOT and LIV and a CS v MCI in the FA Cup reflects a keeper who is in top form.
His GW38+ opposition Watford also have a poor goalscoring record away from home. Their 12 away goals ranks them 19th in the league, only Norwichās 7 goals is worse.
His GW38+ opposition Watford also have a poor goalscoring record away from home. Their 12 away goals ranks them 19th in the league, only Norwichās 7 goals is worse.
Rivalling Martinez is Pope, the highest scoring keeper in FPL and an extremely strong candidate for any GW38+ FH team.
He leads the league in clean sheets (15) and his 23 bonus points eclipses the next best in the league which stands at 17 by Vicente Guaita
He leads the league in clean sheets (15) and his 23 bonus points eclipses the next best in the league which stands at 17 by Vicente Guaita
With the Golden Glove award for Pope in sight, Burnley will be doing all they can to shut out a Brighton side who have the lowest conversion rate of big chances in the league.
Both keepers represent good options for GW38+, both look like they could grab themselves clean sheets.
Both keepers represent good options for GW38+, both look like they could grab themselves clean sheets.
The 0.7m saved by picking Martinez is enticing, but Popeās ability to gain bonus points could make him the higher scoring pick.
Personally, I will opt for Martinez. With Burnleyās budget back four nailed on, I think thatās where I will look to capitalise on their strong defence.
Personally, I will opt for Martinez. With Burnleyās budget back four nailed on, I think thatās where I will look to capitalise on their strong defence.
The Defensive Picks The consensus amongst FHers is to opt for a 3 at the back for GW38+ so who should you be favouring or avoiding?
There is a small selection of āsafeā fixtures for clean sheets in GW38+
These are defenders from LIV v new (A), MCI v nor (H), BUR v bha (H)
Of these options most are avoiding MCI assets. The midfield and attack options have a far higher ceiling compared to their defenders.
These are defenders from LIV v new (A), MCI v nor (H), BUR v bha (H)
Of these options most are avoiding MCI assets. The midfield and attack options have a far higher ceiling compared to their defenders.
One of the options that Iāve been looking at for my FH has been Digne
Digne (5.9m) is a deceptive option. Brilliant delivery from set pieces and open play.
8 assists leads all non-LIV defenders this year and he has the joint-most bonus points (16) amongst non-LIV defenders too
Digne (5.9m) is a deceptive option. Brilliant delivery from set pieces and open play.
8 assists leads all non-LIV defenders this year and he has the joint-most bonus points (16) amongst non-LIV defenders too
His fixture v BOU (H) looks favourable, but the Cherries have been increasingly plucky in the last couple GWs.
Theyāve scored three goals in their last two away games v MUN and MCI and will probably have everything to play for on the final day.
Theyāve scored three goals in their last two away games v MUN and MCI and will probably have everything to play for on the final day.
Meanwhile Everton have kept one clean sheet in their last seven home games. They also rank bottom in set-piece goals at home in the PL this year, only scoring once from set plays, so Digne's set pieces aren't much of a bonus
Digne could well return, but I prefer other options.
Digne could well return, but I prefer other options.
TAA and Robbo are one of the options I prefer.
NEW (A) who have a defensive injury crisis, nothing to play for and have only scored 19 home goals all season (only CRY and SOT have less) so this fixture looks good for one or both of TAA (7.7m) and Robbo (7.0m)
NEW (A) who have a defensive injury crisis, nothing to play for and have only scored 19 home goals all season (only CRY and SOT have less) so this fixture looks good for one or both of TAA (7.7m) and Robbo (7.0m)
They lead all defenders in the league in assists and bonus points, they both take corners and TAA has scored from free kicks this year.
Worth mentioning that Robbo has looked the sharper of the two since the restart, creating chances more frequently and outscoring TAA 34 to 30.
Worth mentioning that Robbo has looked the sharper of the two since the restart, creating chances more frequently and outscoring TAA 34 to 30.
With such high ceilings and influence on every game they feature in, it would be criminal not to own at least one of Liverpool's full backs, despite their recent defensive frailties. If you have the budget, Iād argue getting both in for GW38+
But what about Burnley's defence?
But what about Burnley's defence?
As mentioned in the goalkeeper section of this guide, Burnleyās defence looks a great way to go.
Their back four is set in stone it seems with Bardsley (4.4m) and Pieters (4.3m) at full back and centre halves Tarkowski (5.4m) and Long (4.3m) in front of FPL favourite Nick Pope
Their back four is set in stone it seems with Bardsley (4.4m) and Pieters (4.3m) at full back and centre halves Tarkowski (5.4m) and Long (4.3m) in front of FPL favourite Nick Pope
It's very hard to look past doubling up on Burnley's defence
Brighton have scored only 7 goals from open play away from home, the same amount as theyāve scored from set-pieces away from the AMEX.
Burnley, however, have conceded a joint league-low of 2 set piece goals at home.
Brighton have scored only 7 goals from open play away from home, the same amount as theyāve scored from set-pieces away from the AMEX.
Burnley, however, have conceded a joint league-low of 2 set piece goals at home.
If you can afford Tarkowski then try and fit him in. He has 2G 3A and 14 bonus points, but Iād also suggest getting Pieters.
Heās a great an enabler but with 4 assists and 10 bonus points he would be my recommendation to compliment one of your other BUR defensive assets.
Heās a great an enabler but with 4 assists and 10 bonus points he would be my recommendation to compliment one of your other BUR defensive assets.
Overall I would recommend doubling up on at least one sides defenders. Itās risky but if the fixtures are favourable then itās almost riskier to require 4 CS from 4 different clubs. There are some other useful differential picks out there but these were our preferred FH options.
Midfield Selection oMan City Midfielders
oPremium (9.0m+)
oMid-range (6.5m ā 9.0m)
oBudget (4.0m - 6.5m)
Man City Midfielders On paper, this Norwich game is the ideal fixture for Man City and Dilvaās PL send-off should be a real party with several goals from several City attacking assets ā or so we hope.
The bigger challenge for FHers is winning Pep Roulette...
If we can get reliable City news (we miss you @FPLRockstar) then that will ultimately dictate your City asset selection.
With CL on their horizon expect some early subs by Pep but for now, hereās the breakdown of Cityās big hitters.
With CL on their horizon expect some early subs by Pep but for now, hereās the breakdown of Cityās big hitters.
Sterling (11.9m) is the most expensive of Cityās midfielders which could price him out of some FH squads. 8 GWs with double-digit point hauls, including two 20+ point GWs makes him a very attractive option.
But the risk factor with Sterling is his inconsistency in front of goal
But the risk factor with Sterling is his inconsistency in front of goal
17 goals this season is no mean feat, but 17 big chances missed (7th worse in the PL) is worrying.
3G and 4A in 5 apps vs NOR is exciting and the amount of chances City will create should offset the risk of him blanking, but some may avoid him and pick a cheaper City option.
3G and 4A in 5 apps vs NOR is exciting and the amount of chances City will create should offset the risk of him blanking, but some may avoid him and pick a cheaper City option.
KDB (10.7m) is the 2nd most valuable FPL option this season in terms of total points accumulated. He leads the PL assists charts, including 11A in 15 starts at home this season.
He also leads the PL in key passes at home games with 73. 2nd place has 55.
He also leads the PL in key passes at home games with 73. 2nd place has 55.
What more needs to be said about KDB? Even if heās been drifting wide and dropping deeper into midfield in recent games, he still feels like a must-have.
He's currently on pens and averages over 7.6 points per home game. I suggest heās the player you should prioritise for MCI.
He's currently on pens and averages over 7.6 points per home game. I suggest heās the player you should prioritise for MCI.
David Silva (7.4m) is playing his final PL game for City so you would have to assume that he starts this one.
10 goals involvements in 15 home games this season and 30 points across his last 2 home fixtures suggests great value, especially for a FH squad.
10 goals involvements in 15 home games this season and 30 points across his last 2 home fixtures suggests great value, especially for a FH squad.
Chatter surrounding him potentially taking a penalty if given the chance is enough to tempt me, in conjunction with his effortless ability to break down any low block defence, especially one as poor as Norwichās.
Dilva also shines against the leagueās worst teams.
Dilva also shines against the leagueās worst teams.
This season v teams in the relegation zone he averages 7.6pts (11pts at the Etihad). Heās great value and not just a sentimental signing either.
In my current FH draft I've got Silva and KDB from City's midfield, but let's not look past the rest of their midfield talent.
In my current FH draft I've got Silva and KDB from City's midfield, but let's not look past the rest of their midfield talent.
Mahrez (8.6m), Bernardo Silva (7.6m) and Foden (5.5m) make up the rest of City's viable assets.
Mahrez has been phenomenal this season with 10G and 13A, far more than Bilvaās 6G and 7A.
He's been MCI's FPL dark horse and has far more points than Dilva, so why do I want Dilva?
Mahrez has been phenomenal this season with 10G and 13A, far more than Bilvaās 6G and 7A.
He's been MCI's FPL dark horse and has far more points than Dilva, so why do I want Dilva?
What puts me off Mahrez for a FH is that Dilva has the same amount of goal involvements at home as him, heās 1.2m cheaper, maybe on pens, arguably in better form and less likely to be subbed for the CL.
Meanwhile, currently, I donāt think I will use for Bilva or Foden for my FH.
Meanwhile, currently, I donāt think I will use for Bilva or Foden for my FH.
Foden has been excellent at times and as a budget player heās a great pick. Lack of regular, consistent minutes seems to be hampering his form though.
7 points across his last 4 GWs is not a reflection of his talent, but it does put me off.
7 points across his last 4 GWs is not a reflection of his talent, but it does put me off.
Also, 125 mins per goal involvement compared to 81 for Mahrez and 96 for Dilva is enough for me opt for another MCI asset
Bilva, like all Cityās midfielders, could put up double-figures for the 4th time this season v NOR and at 0.2% Top 10k ownership he's a bit of a punt.
Bilva, like all Cityās midfielders, could put up double-figures for the 4th time this season v NOR and at 0.2% Top 10k ownership he's a bit of a punt.
Bilva did score 19pts in the 8-0 v WAT (H), only NOR have a worse away record than WAT, so thereās potential there, although I wonāt be bringing him in.
Depending on if you use Jesus, I would at least double up on Cityās midfield assets, maybe triple up if you are running 5 mids
Depending on if you use Jesus, I would at least double up on Cityās midfield assets, maybe triple up if you are running 5 mids
I imagine KDB and Dilva will be the most popular picks - it's not hard to see why - but frankly most City midfielders look good for big returns especially if they start.
But what about your premium midfield picks, who should you shell out the big money for...?
(End of Part 1)
But what about your premium midfield picks, who should you shell out the big money for...?
(End of Part 1)
Premium Midfielders (9.0m+)
Getting your premium midfield selections right is essential for any successful FH.
There are six premium midfielders based on our price bracket, two of which, KDB and Sterling, have been covered in our Man City selection guide (see above)
Getting your premium midfield selections right is essential for any successful FH.
There are six premium midfielders based on our price bracket, two of which, KDB and Sterling, have been covered in our Man City selection guide (see above)
Luckily, the remaining four midfielders also have decent fixtures in which you could reasonably expect them to amass some hefty points.
Depending on funds and formations, most will restrict themselves to 3 or 4 premium options for their FH squads, so who should you be targeting?
Depending on funds and formations, most will restrict themselves to 3 or 4 premium options for their FH squads, so who should you be targeting?
Salah (12.5m) looks nailed on in almost every FH draft Iāve seen and for good reason.
Heās the highest scoring player in FPL this year (so far) and he has a very promising fixture against an injury-riddled Newcastle defence, who I expect will be facing Liverpool's strongest XI.
Heās the highest scoring player in FPL this year (so far) and he has a very promising fixture against an injury-riddled Newcastle defence, who I expect will be facing Liverpool's strongest XI.
Salah himself, now out of the Golden Boot race, only has 4 away PL goals this season, 11 less than at Anfield.
His lower than expected away goals are remedied by his 6 away assists this season, only KDB has more. He also has 4G and 2A in 6 apps v NEW which should give FHers hope
His lower than expected away goals are remedied by his 6 away assists this season, only KDB has more. He also has 4G and 2A in 6 apps v NEW which should give FHers hope
But are FHers overlooking Mane?
The away record of Mane (12.2m) has been impressive this season as heās scored 6 goals and assisted a further 3.
It shouldn't be forgotten that Mane also achieved his seasonās best 15pts in the reverse fixture v NEW back in September.
The away record of Mane (12.2m) has been impressive this season as heās scored 6 goals and assisted a further 3.
It shouldn't be forgotten that Mane also achieved his seasonās best 15pts in the reverse fixture v NEW back in September.
However, Salahās average 4.1 shots per away game massively overshadows Maneās 2.4, so it would appear Maneās far more clinical than Salah away from home, although the Egyptian will more likely get more shots off.
The choice between the two is a bit of a toss-up performance wise.
The choice between the two is a bit of a toss-up performance wise.
This season, Salah has 84pts away from home compared to Maneās 76pts.
But Mane looked sharper than Salah in their last game v ARS, although we know Salah always has the potential to score very highly.
As it stands in GW37+, Salahās Top 10k ownership is 43%, Maneās is 9%.
But Mane looked sharper than Salah in their last game v ARS, although we know Salah always has the potential to score very highly.
As it stands in GW37+, Salahās Top 10k ownership is 43%, Maneās is 9%.
That big ownership swing really increases the risk/reward stakes if you select the highest returner of one of these two LIV assets.
But whilst Liverpool could put five past a weakened NEW side, NEW have the 2nd best home defence of teams outside the top 6 - behind SHU
But whilst Liverpool could put five past a weakened NEW side, NEW have the 2nd best home defence of teams outside the top 6 - behind SHU
They've also conceded less goals from open play (11) than SHU (12), so whilst owning both Mane and Salah is tempting, I think even if you have a midfield of 5, you should double/triple up on cheaper MCI assets.
These two aren't the only viable premium midfield options though...
These two aren't the only viable premium midfield options though...
Son's timely return to form is certainly worth considering
Averaging 9pts across the last 3 GWs makes Son (9.7m) a worthy FH option
Against Leicester he looked sharp on the counter and with an in-form Kane in front of him, Spurs look good for goals against a struggling CRY side
Averaging 9pts across the last 3 GWs makes Son (9.7m) a worthy FH option
Against Leicester he looked sharp on the counter and with an in-form Kane in front of him, Spurs look good for goals against a struggling CRY side
2 goals and a 16pt haul v CRY earlier in the year suggests Son has the beating of a CRY defence that has shipped 17 goals in 7 games since the restart.
But the Eaglesā home defensive record across the season has been good though, despite their dreadful form.
But the Eaglesā home defensive record across the season has been good though, despite their dreadful form.
In 12 of their 18 home games this season, CRY have either kept a clean sheet or only conceded one goal.
However, bar Wolves, every Top 6 side has scored 2+ goals at Selhurst Park this season and CRY are in total free-fall.
Only BOU and NOR have worse records since the restart.
However, bar Wolves, every Top 6 side has scored 2+ goals at Selhurst Park this season and CRY are in total free-fall.
Only BOU and NOR have worse records since the restart.
Now is the perfect time for Son to play CRY and I think at 12% Top 10k ownership he could go under the radar with FHers prioritising City assets and other premium midfielders
Son could really return in a big way, much like our final midfielder has consistently done since January
Son could really return in a big way, much like our final midfielder has consistently done since January
Bruno Fernandes (9.1m) has arguably been the league's best player since the restart, averaging almost 10 points per game.
He has orchestrated the attack of the top side in the PL form table and has contributed towards 10 of United's last 19 goals in the league.
He has orchestrated the attack of the top side in the PL form table and has contributed towards 10 of United's last 19 goals in the league.
More so than other premium midfielders, Fernandesā haul in GW38+ will depend on the quality of performances by Rashford, Greenwood and Martial.
But as the Portuguese star leads the league in assists per 90mins (0.6) that clearly hasnāt been an issue so far.
But as the Portuguese star leads the league in assists per 90mins (0.6) that clearly hasnāt been an issue so far.
Much like KDB, itās a case of leave him out your FH side at your peril, because although Unitedās recent fixtures have been kind, we know he is very capable of returning multiple times v Leicester (A)
A side who have been struggling with injuries, suspensions and form as of late
A side who have been struggling with injuries, suspensions and form as of late
On paper the fixture v LEI is off-putting given the league table and the fixtureās significance for both clubs, but this isnāt the same LEI side that sat in 2nd place for large parts of the season.
Only CRY and the current bottom four sides have less points since the restart.
Only CRY and the current bottom four sides have less points since the restart.
Personally, I'm unsure if I can risk leaving Fernandes out of my FH squad.
His consistency, big return potential and continual influence when United have the ball makes him such a great option.
I think GW38+ is a perfect time to FH because of these premium midfielders' fixtures
His consistency, big return potential and continual influence when United have the ball makes him such a great option.
I think GW38+ is a perfect time to FH because of these premium midfielders' fixtures
Right now, I have a Fernandes, Salah, KDB and Dilva in a 4-man midfield, but I am seriously toying with bringing in Son.
But there are plenty of exciting cheaper and budget midfield options that GW38+ FHers shouldn't ignore if they want to climb the rankings...
(End of Part 2)
But there are plenty of exciting cheaper and budget midfield options that GW38+ FHers shouldn't ignore if they want to climb the rankings...
(End of Part 2)
Mid-range Midfielders (6.5m - 9.0m)These midfielders play a crucial role in any FH side as they are not only influential players for their team, but they also offer FHers viable alternatives to popular premium options for far less money
Let's have a look at the options...
Martial (8.5m) has been so impressive since the restart and right up there in performances with anyone in the league.
He has the same amount of post-restart points as Fernandes (57) and his prolific form in front of goal has made him almost indispensable in recent weeks.
He has the same amount of post-restart points as Fernandes (57) and his prolific form in front of goal has made him almost indispensable in recent weeks.
After Leicester conceded 3 vs Spurs in GW37, the attraction towards Martial as a FH selection has intensified
Ageing CBs Evans, Bennett and Morgan could really struggle with Martialās pace and movement on the counter, a style of play both United and Martial are proficient in.
Ageing CBs Evans, Bennett and Morgan could really struggle with Martialās pace and movement on the counter, a style of play both United and Martial are proficient in.
The last 6 goals from open play that LEI have conceded have been scored by strikers, which points to another potential weakness for Martial to exploit.
Letās also not forget that the last time Martial faced a 3 CB formation he bagged a hat trick and 21 points v SHU (H).
Letās also not forget that the last time Martial faced a 3 CB formation he bagged a hat trick and 21 points v SHU (H).
Do make note of Leicesterās four consecutive home clean sheets though, it may not necessarily be be a rout for United.
Another slightly worrying aspect to Martial's game, that FHers should acknowledge, is his exceptional home form but less than impressive away form.
Another slightly worrying aspect to Martial's game, that FHers should acknowledge, is his exceptional home form but less than impressive away form.
The Frenchman boasts 11G, 4A in 15 apps at home at an average of 7.9 point per game with only 4 blanks.
In away games, Martial has 6G, 1A in 15 apps accumulating roughly 4.6 points per game. Heās also blanked more times than heās returned.
In away games, Martial has 6G, 1A in 15 apps accumulating roughly 4.6 points per game. Heās also blanked more times than heās returned.
You would generally expect lower returns from assets playing away from home, but this level of inconsistency is just enough to put me off him as he plays away in GW38+
17 goals this season as an OOP FPL asset remains a fantastic return and heās still a tasty option for FHers.
17 goals this season as an OOP FPL asset remains a fantastic return and heās still a tasty option for FHers.
Another OOP midfielder that has attracted some FH interest is Richarlison (8.2m) who has 13G and 5A to his name this season.
Heās the highest scoring midfield option for any player outside of the current top 7 sides by 24 points and heās already had his best FPL campaign ever.
Heās the highest scoring midfield option for any player outside of the current top 7 sides by 24 points and heās already had his best FPL campaign ever.
But as a frustrated former owner of Richarlison I wonāt be bringing him in for my FH side, and hereās why.
Firstly heās 8.2m, which is a decent chunk of my FH budget, so I have to be sure that he has reliably high-scoring potential, which Iām unsure he does.
Firstly heās 8.2m, which is a decent chunk of my FH budget, so I have to be sure that he has reliably high-scoring potential, which Iām unsure he does.
In 35 starts he has only got double attacking returns twice. Conversely, Antonio, another OOP option for 1.2m less, has achieved that feat on 3 times in the last 9 GWs.
So thereās some doubt in my mind whether heās worth shelling out 8.2m for.
So thereās some doubt in my mind whether heās worth shelling out 8.2m for.
Secondly, Iām really not impressed with Evertonās attacking ability.
Theyāve only scored 6 times in their last 8 matches. Antonioās West Ham have scored twice that many and play a team with a worse defensive record than BOU.
Theyāve only scored 6 times in their last 8 matches. Antonioās West Ham have scored twice that many and play a team with a worse defensive record than BOU.
I imagine Richarlison will make this prediction look a bit silly, but Iām willing to take that risk.
With the likes of Mahrez, Martial and Dilva all available to me as FHer, for a similar price, I canāt find a place for Richarlison in my side.
With the likes of Mahrez, Martial and Dilva all available to me as FHer, for a similar price, I canāt find a place for Richarlison in my side.
Pulisic (7.4m) is an awkward FH selection for GW38+, as he faces a defensively stable Wolves side who find themselves unbeaten in their last 3.
Considering Pulisic has only blanked once in 7 post-restart games (at time of writing) he definitely shouldnāt be disregarded.
Considering Pulisic has only blanked once in 7 post-restart games (at time of writing) he definitely shouldnāt be disregarded.
Chelsea ran out 5-2 winners in the reverse fixture, and despite a more resolute WOL defence since that game, the Midlands outfit have only won once in their last 8 games v top-half sides
Pulisic does have some off-putting stats for home performances in his debut season though...
Pulisic does have some off-putting stats for home performances in his debut season though...
The American grabs a goal every 396 minutes at Stamford Bridge, compared to a goal every 137.7 minutes in away games.
This is somewhat typical of a CHE side who have only scored 44% of their total goals this season at home - only SOU have a lower percentage (38%).
This is somewhat typical of a CHE side who have only scored 44% of their total goals this season at home - only SOU have a lower percentage (38%).
Watch out for a potential early substitution to save him for the FA Cup final, but also watch out for his performance v LIV (A) tonight before bringing him in.
Much like Richarlison, I think the quality of other midfield options is enough for me to avoid Pulisic for my FH squad.
Much like Richarlison, I think the quality of other midfield options is enough for me to avoid Pulisic for my FH squad.
However, I am very tempted by Antonio (7.0m) whose 54pts in the last 5 GWs is testament to his unbelievable form.
For reference, thatās the same amount of points as Mane and Pulisicās last 5 GWs combined.
Incredibly, Antonio also has more xG since the restart than Everton.
For reference, thatās the same amount of points as Mane and Pulisicās last 5 GWs combined.
Incredibly, Antonio also has more xG since the restart than Everton.
His GW38+ fixture v AVL (H) will represent a slightly sterner defensive test than NOR did for Antonio. Letās not expect another 4 goals.
In their last 7 games v bottom-half clubs AVL have only conceded 8 goals, but they do have the 19th ranked away defence in the league.
In their last 7 games v bottom-half clubs AVL have only conceded 8 goals, but they do have the 19th ranked away defence in the league.
Interestingly, WHU have scored more home goals (29) than Chelsea (28), Wolves (25) and 12 other PL sides.
So as a cheaper OOP option and with the excellent form of his midfielders, especially Bowen, behind him, I believe Antonio could well be a top pick for GW38+ FHers.
So as a cheaper OOP option and with the excellent form of his midfielders, especially Bowen, behind him, I believe Antonio could well be a top pick for GW38+ FHers.
Budget Midfielders (4.0m - 6.5m) Don't overlook these picks!
These budget options should be of interest to anyone whose pinching pennies, looking for a 1st sub option (should the worst happen) or searching for an obscure differential to chase down your ML rival.
A prime example of a potentially overlooked asset is Bowen (6.4m) who looks to be another nice WHU option after registering 4 assists in his last 5 games - including 3 in his last 3 home fixtures.
He has also scored twice in 4 games v Villa in the Championship whilst at Hull.
He has also scored twice in 4 games v Villa in the Championship whilst at Hull.
Villa themselves have also conceded 6 goals by wingers in their last 9 games and are yet to keep an away clean sheet all season.
Bowenās upturn in form coincides with Antonio finding his stride too and at 0.3% ownership I think Bowen could be a fantastic differential in GW38+
Bowenās upturn in form coincides with Antonio finding his stride too and at 0.3% ownership I think Bowen could be a fantastic differential in GW38+
Grealish (5.9m) in the same fixture may interest some FHers in what is a crucial game for Villa.
Their star man is only second to KDB in the league for chances created this season and will look to capitalise on the 3rd worse home defence in the top flight.
Their star man is only second to KDB in the league for chances created this season and will look to capitalise on the 3rd worse home defence in the top flight.
Do note that no team has conceded more penalties at home this season than West Ham (4).
With Grealish looking busy v ARS last night, being the most fouled player in the league and potentially on penalties himself, GW38+ could spell the end of 11 GWs without an attacking return.
With Grealish looking busy v ARS last night, being the most fouled player in the league and potentially on penalties himself, GW38+ could spell the end of 11 GWs without an attacking return.
Podence (4.9m) is coming off the back of his first PL goal in GW37+, after getting a cheeky s/o from the FPL Talismen after GW36+.
But prior to Monday night he had been performing well in his last few games heās started for Wolves, including an assist in a MOTM display v EVE (H)
But prior to Monday night he had been performing well in his last few games heās started for Wolves, including an assist in a MOTM display v EVE (H)
Heās against a Chelsea side who have only kept one home CS against top half sides this year.
Meanwhile Wolves will be hoping continue their good form and add to their 25 away goals this year, the same figure as Man United.
Meanwhile Wolves will be hoping continue their good form and add to their 25 away goals this year, the same figure as Man United.
With Podence being priced so cheaply and playing regularly for an in-form side, if you do have excess funds then he may well be worth a 1st sub punt, even if you canāt slot him in to your starting XI.
But there is an even cheaper budget option worth looking at...
But there is an even cheaper budget option worth looking at...
Arsenal's Saka (4.7m) has been a welcome budget midfielder throughout this FPL season and in the 2nd half of this season especially.
His 242 mins per goal involvement is competitve and better than players such as Mount (248 mins) and Lucas Moura (270 mins).
His 242 mins per goal involvement is competitve and better than players such as Mount (248 mins) and Lucas Moura (270 mins).
There are doubts as to whether he starts, but if he does thereās a decent chance he could return v WAT (H) who are under pressure to stay up and are conceding an average of 2.13 goals per game in their last 8.
Like Podence, he's very cheap, low-risk and is prime 1st sub fodder.
Like Podence, he's very cheap, low-risk and is prime 1st sub fodder.
Of course, we canāt cover every midfielder and all these midfield picks are just us explaining our opinion, it's not to say they will or won't do well
The stats that we've based our evaluations off could well be turned upside down given the typical craziness that occurs in GW38.
The stats that we've based our evaluations off could well be turned upside down given the typical craziness that occurs in GW38.
Our final addition to the thread will be the forward selections which can make or break any FH, so weāll try to help navigate you through some important but equally exciting decisions.
(End of the Midfielders Selection section)
(End of the Midfielders Selection section)
The Forward Selections In the final section of the thread we'll break down our preferred forward options for GW38+ and try and guide those of you who remain undecided on who you want leading the line in your FH squads.
In the wake of braces in consecutive fixtures, Kane (10.9m) looks to be a stalwart in many GW38+ FH teams and why wouldn't he be?
In his last two games vs NEW (A) and LEI (H) heās amassed a total of 25pts, managed 6 shots and scored with all 4 of his shots on target
In his last two games vs NEW (A) and LEI (H) heās amassed a total of 25pts, managed 6 shots and scored with all 4 of his shots on target
Surprisingly, Kaneās combined xG stands at only 1 goal in the past two games, despite netting 4 times.
Vardy and Aguero (0.7) are the only FPL strikers that can say they have more away goals per game than Kane (0.6) this season, after his solid return of 8 goals in 13 away apps.
Vardy and Aguero (0.7) are the only FPL strikers that can say they have more away goals per game than Kane (0.6) this season, after his solid return of 8 goals in 13 away apps.
Tottenham's star man has undoubtedly hit form just at the wrong time for the hapless Eagles who I imagine will succumb to a Spurs side mounting a final push for 6th place.
In the Son evaluation (see āPremium Midfieldersā above) I detailed how out of form Palace have been.
In the Son evaluation (see āPremium Midfieldersā above) I detailed how out of form Palace have been.
In their last 7 fixtures theyāre on the losing side of a combined scoreline which stands at 17-2.
Kaneās assist potential shouldnāt be underestimated either with both Lucas and Son's pace on the counter, Kane has registered 6 key passes across the past 3 GWs.
Kaneās assist potential shouldnāt be underestimated either with both Lucas and Son's pace on the counter, Kane has registered 6 key passes across the past 3 GWs.
Kane will feature in both of our FH sides. He has captaincy potential due to his form and a very favourable fixture.
There are few reasons for not owning him if youāre FHing this week and we both recommend budgeting your squad to cater for a premium option like Kane.
There are few reasons for not owning him if youāre FHing this week and we both recommend budgeting your squad to cater for a premium option like Kane.
Another premium option for FHers is Aubameyang (10.9m), a pick which makes a whole lot of sense on paper, but is bringing him in too risky?
20G and 4A in the midst of a turbulent Arsenal season is beyond commendable, especially when you see that his xG tally only stands at 15.
20G and 4A in the midst of a turbulent Arsenal season is beyond commendable, especially when you see that his xG tally only stands at 15.
The notable risks with Aubameyang is that, firstly, Arsenal have an FA Cup final coming up and Arteta will take no chances on his star striker.
A win v CHE will be their only chance to play European football, so I donāt expect Aubameyang to play any more than 75 mins v WAT (H).
A win v CHE will be their only chance to play European football, so I donāt expect Aubameyang to play any more than 75 mins v WAT (H).
The second risk is Arsenalās unpredictable recent form and how that may affect Auba's potential returns.
A 4-1 aggregate win over MCI and LIV in the space of a few days was followed up by a wholly disappointing 1-0 loss to AVL (A) and Aubaās third consecutive blank GW.
A 4-1 aggregate win over MCI and LIV in the space of a few days was followed up by a wholly disappointing 1-0 loss to AVL (A) and Aubaās third consecutive blank GW.
WAT (H) looks like an inviting fixture but relying on a strong Arsenal showing when they have one eye on a cup final is fraught with danger.
And yet I think Auba is a top pick for GW38+. I know Watfordās PL lives are on the line but I canāt look past their recent defensive woes.
And yet I think Auba is a top pick for GW38+. I know Watfordās PL lives are on the line but I canāt look past their recent defensive woes.
No Watford CS in 9 games and 6 goals conceded in their last 2 away games makes positive reading for Auba owners.
Watford have conceded more goals from open play in away games this year than Norwich and in 9 games away from home against top half sides, theyāve shipped 23 goals.
Watford have conceded more goals from open play in away games this year than Norwich and in 9 games away from home against top half sides, theyāve shipped 23 goals.
Auba claimed 13pts after he netted twice v WAT earlier in the season, that makes it 4G and 1A in 4 apps vs the Hornets.
He also has 6G and 1A in his last 5 home starts in the PL. 47 points (inc. 10 bonus points) across those 5 starts makes him a worthy captaincy candidate too.
He also has 6G and 1A in his last 5 home starts in the PL. 47 points (inc. 10 bonus points) across those 5 starts makes him a worthy captaincy candidate too.
Itās a really difficult decision to back Auba and Arsenal at the best of times, but I think on balance I do want him.
1 away CS in 12 attempts for WAT and Aubaās recent home form is appealing enough for me to make room for him, although Iām still not 100% set on this pick.
1 away CS in 12 attempts for WAT and Aubaās recent home form is appealing enough for me to make room for him, although Iām still not 100% set on this pick.
I'm also unsure about Jesus (9.9m) who has been an interesting FPL asset since Agueroās injury, but itās impossible to predict which Jesus will turn up GW to GW.
Will you get the creative and composed Jesus that landed 14pts v BHA or will you get the Jesus that blanked v WAT?
Will you get the creative and composed Jesus that landed 14pts v BHA or will you get the Jesus that blanked v WAT?
The Brazilian leads the PL in big chances missed (24) which is concerning considering the wealth of Man City options available in the midfield for FHers to choose from.
Jesus took 24 shots in 436 mins in PL matches between GW32+ and GW37+, at roughly a shot every 18 mins.
Jesus took 24 shots in 436 mins in PL matches between GW32+ and GW37+, at roughly a shot every 18 mins.
These shooting stats should entice FHers before Cityās clash v NOR, or should they?
Jesus hasnāt been nearly as clinical as other attackers in his price range, as heās only converted 13 of his 96 efforts this season into PL goals - a 13.5% conversion rate.
Jesus hasnāt been nearly as clinical as other attackers in his price range, as heās only converted 13 of his 96 efforts this season into PL goals - a 13.5% conversion rate.
For reference, Kaneās is 21.3% and Vardyās is 26.7%.
His waywardness in front of goal is reinforced by his xG stat which stands at almost 18, five more than his actual haul of 13 goals.
Comparably, Ings has a lower xG than Jesus (15.2) but has scored 21 times prior to GW38+.
His waywardness in front of goal is reinforced by his xG stat which stands at almost 18, five more than his actual haul of 13 goals.
Comparably, Ings has a lower xG than Jesus (15.2) but has scored 21 times prior to GW38+.
But there are certainly positive aspect to owning Jesus. One positive is knowing he will always profit from Cityās relentless creation of excellent chances.
In fact, Jesus has had more shots than Sterling (96 to 94) despite playing 10 and half hours less football than him.
In fact, Jesus has had more shots than Sterling (96 to 94) despite playing 10 and half hours less football than him.
In GW38+ you can probably expect him to continue playing as the focal point of the PLās top scorers (97 goals) against the PLās worst defence (70 conceded), which is hugely attractive.
Pep Roulette, however, remains an issue after Jesus completed the full 90mins v WAT in GW37+
Pep Roulette, however, remains an issue after Jesus completed the full 90mins v WAT in GW37+
The last time he did this was vs SOU (A) in GW33+ and in the subsequent game he only played 60 mins vs NEW (H).
There is also the worry that with the Champions League coming up in August, that Pep might make wholesale changes and rest Jesus, although this feels unlikely.
There is also the worry that with the Champions League coming up in August, that Pep might make wholesale changes and rest Jesus, although this feels unlikely.
Jesus has yo-yoed in and out of my FH drafts.
He has a high ceiling, he profits from excellent playmakers and heās the sole striker in the most appealing fixture of GW38+.
Heās worth selecting if you want him, but Iām unsure if I do given Cityās midfield.
(End of Part 1)
He has a high ceiling, he profits from excellent playmakers and heās the sole striker in the most appealing fixture of GW38+.
Heās worth selecting if you want him, but Iām unsure if I do given Cityās midfield.
(End of Part 1)
Vardy (9.7m) goes in to GW38+ as the PLās top scorer and as the highest scoring striker in FPL (209 points).
Barring a giant haul from Jimenez, Ings or Auba it seems as though Vardy will hold on to the mantle of being FPLās top-scoring attacker, but the Golden Boot race is open.
Barring a giant haul from Jimenez, Ings or Auba it seems as though Vardy will hold on to the mantle of being FPLās top-scoring attacker, but the Golden Boot race is open.
A goal or two v MUN (H) could be enough to seal the award for a second time, but will he score them? I donāt think so.
23 goals this campaign represents Vardyās best goalscoring season since he lifted the PL trophy, but Vardyās inconsistency is what puts me off as a FHer.
23 goals this campaign represents Vardyās best goalscoring season since he lifted the PL trophy, but Vardyās inconsistency is what puts me off as a FHer.
15 blanks this season in 34 apps makes owning Vardy risky business. It does however mean that when he doesnāt blank youāre in for a sizeable haul
Of those 19 GWs where Vardy returned, he gained 182pts at a GW average of 9.6pts. 8 of those GWs also resulted in double-digit scores
Of those 19 GWs where Vardy returned, he gained 182pts at a GW average of 9.6pts. 8 of those GWs also resulted in double-digit scores
No goals in his last two GWs isnāt a great sign due to Vardyās notorious habit of stringing together lengthy runs of blanks and returns.
However, his xG for the last 4 GWs is 4. A promising sign considering thatās more than everyone in the league bar Antonio (5) and Salah (4.6)
However, his xG for the last 4 GWs is 4. A promising sign considering thatās more than everyone in the league bar Antonio (5) and Salah (4.6)
His GW38+ fixture v MUN (H) has a lot riding on it. A win for either side secures CL football next season and a draw might not be enough for LEI.
Expect Vardy to outrun a United side who've played 10 games in 34 days with little rotation and that looked tired v WHU (H) in GW37+
Expect Vardy to outrun a United side who've played 10 games in 34 days with little rotation and that looked tired v WHU (H) in GW37+
I don't expect many goals here, although with De Gea going through a torrid spell and with 3 mistakes leading to goals (2nd worst record in the PL) you really never know.
3 consecutive home CS for LEI and 3 consecutive away CS for MUN.
Letās not be surprised if Vardy blanks.
3 consecutive home CS for LEI and 3 consecutive away CS for MUN.
Letās not be surprised if Vardy blanks.
Rashford (8.9m) will most likely line up against Vardy on Sunday in what will be his 11th game in almost 6 weeks.
3G and 3A since the restart is a fair return for Rashford who has at times been overshadowed by the high-scoring performances of his United teammates.
3G and 3A since the restart is a fair return for Rashford who has at times been overshadowed by the high-scoring performances of his United teammates.
Fernandes and Martial had 67pts since the restart (prior to GW37+) whereas Rashford only had 40pts from playing out on the left.
But whilst you could fairly argue MUNās midfield assets were better value in this period, Rashford has been a fantastic FPL pick throughout the year.
But whilst you could fairly argue MUNās midfield assets were better value in this period, Rashford has been a fantastic FPL pick throughout the year.
Heās only one of 5 FPL assets who've earned 30+ bonus points this season and his 25 goal involvements have come in only 30 apps due to injury.
LEI will be cautious of Rashford after he scored against them earlier in the year, but Iām not convinced history will repeat itself here
LEI will be cautious of Rashford after he scored against them earlier in the year, but Iām not convinced history will repeat itself here
Rashford has blanked in 4 out of his last 5 games, although he did grab a goal and an assist in his last away outing in GW36+ v CRY.
MUN donāt score many away goals, theyāve scored 38% of their total PL goals in away fixtures this season, only WAT (35%) and SHU (37%) have less.
MUN donāt score many away goals, theyāve scored 38% of their total PL goals in away fixtures this season, only WAT (35%) and SHU (37%) have less.
LEI boast the 2nd best home defence in the league, I could be wrong but I think all of MUNās attacking assets will struggle to earn big returns, especially compared to assets from LIV, MCI and TOT.
Greenwood (4.9m) would probably be my preferred option for a MUN striker this GW.
Greenwood (4.9m) would probably be my preferred option for a MUN striker this GW.
Heāll be taking on an inexperienced left back in Thomas for LEI and heās got 5G in his last 6 apps.
Heās also fresher than Rashford after not starting in the FA Cup semi final and only Aguero (91.3) has a superior minutes per goal record than Greenwood (123.6) this season.
Heās also fresher than Rashford after not starting in the FA Cup semi final and only Aguero (91.3) has a superior minutes per goal record than Greenwood (123.6) this season.
The 4m saved by selecting Greenwood, who I think in FPL terms is a sideways move from Rashford, allows you to vastly upgrade the rest of your squad.
If youāre set on bringing in a MUN attacker get Greenwood, but I donāt think there will be many attacking returns in this game.
If youāre set on bringing in a MUN attacker get Greenwood, but I donāt think there will be many attacking returns in this game.
Jimenez (8.0m) will hope to mark the birth of his new-born daughter (congratulations Raul if youāre reading 
) with a goal at Stamford Bridge.
Grabbing a goal or an assist has been a lovely habit of his this season, as heās returned in more GWs than he hasnāt.
) with a goal at Stamford Bridge.Grabbing a goal or an assist has been a lovely habit of his this season, as heās returned in more GWs than he hasnāt.
But one slight flaw to Jimenez is his low ceiling despite being FPLās second highest scoring forward
Heās only managed double-figures on 3 occasions this year and heās only scored 1 brace once all season.
As a FHer, that puts me off. Iām trying to maximise my score, not settle.
Heās only managed double-figures on 3 occasions this year and heās only scored 1 brace once all season.
As a FHer, that puts me off. Iām trying to maximise my score, not settle.
His opposition in GW38+ is CHE (A), a side that have conceded 10 in their last 4 games and only kept 2 CS in 8 games. These came v 18th placed WAT (H) and 20th placed NOR (H).
WOL have scored more away goals (24) than NOR and WAT combined (21). I wouldnāt bank on a CHE CS.
WOL have scored more away goals (24) than NOR and WAT combined (21). I wouldnāt bank on a CHE CS.
Wolves are ending the season in a rich vein of form, theyāve scored in 7 of their last 8 games and are 3 games unbeaten.
Jimenez happens to have 3 returns across these 3 games and his hopes for a final GW goal will be buoyed by the improved form of suppliers Doherty and Podence.
Jimenez happens to have 3 returns across these 3 games and his hopes for a final GW goal will be buoyed by the improved form of suppliers Doherty and Podence.
I expect Jimenez to be highly involved in a WOLās attack that will be battling for 6th place.
Jimenezās xG+xA per 90 mins of 0.59 ranks him above Aubameyang (0.53), Martial (0.54) and Son (0.57).
I wonāt FH Jimenez, but heās reliable and has every chance of bagging in GW38+.
Jimenezās xG+xA per 90 mins of 0.59 ranks him above Aubameyang (0.53), Martial (0.54) and Son (0.57).
I wonāt FH Jimenez, but heās reliable and has every chance of bagging in GW38+.
Ings (7.6m) has been in remarkable form throughout this season, few wouldāve predicted his 21 goals back in August.
Perhaps even fewer wouldāve predicted him being in within touching distance of the Golden Boot come the final game of the season.
Perhaps even fewer wouldāve predicted him being in within touching distance of the Golden Boot come the final game of the season.
But Ingsā final fixture this campaign doesnāt look as though, on paper, itāll produce the goals required to usurp Vardy as the PLās top scorer.
SOT find themselves 19th in the PLās home table and only CRY have scored less home goals than the Saintās this season (14 to 18).
SOT find themselves 19th in the PLās home table and only CRY have scored less home goals than the Saintās this season (14 to 18).
Of SOTās 18 home goals, Ingās has 9 of them, but he has only 1 goal in his last 5 home apps - but it did come in his last home outing v BHA.
SHU will be a tough match-up for Ings, theyāre an organised and sturdy five-man defence that have conceded only 21 goals in 18 away games.
SHU will be a tough match-up for Ings, theyāre an organised and sturdy five-man defence that have conceded only 21 goals in 18 away games.
Only MUN, WOL (both 19) and LIV (16) have conceded less
SOT have only scored 38% of their goals at home in the league and theyāre the only side in the top-flight who average less points at home than in away games ā 1 ppg (H), 1.63 ppg (A)
But you canāt count out an in-form Ings
SOT have only scored 38% of their goals at home in the league and theyāre the only side in the top-flight who average less points at home than in away games ā 1 ppg (H), 1.63 ppg (A)
But you canāt count out an in-form Ings
When a striker is firing the way he is, they should never be overlooked despite what the numbers say.
IMO heās the best forward option for less than 8m, however, if I were to sign him for my FH side, Iād be hoping for a return rather than expecting one.
IMO heās the best forward option for less than 8m, however, if I were to sign him for my FH side, Iād be hoping for a return rather than expecting one.
In the chaos of the final day of the season, we expect lots goals and we expect the unexpected.
We havenāt focused upon several viable FPL forwards or addressed any forward differentials.
Laca, Giroud, Deeney etc. could all have big weekends, so we urge you to trust your gut.
We havenāt focused upon several viable FPL forwards or addressed any forward differentials.
Laca, Giroud, Deeney etc. could all have big weekends, so we urge you to trust your gut.
Since writing this thread my opinions on certain picks and teams has changed
My FH team has changed dramatically and we'll both be posting our final FH sides tomorrow morning with explanations behind our picks if you guys are interested, so make sure youāre following if you are!
My FH team has changed dramatically and we'll both be posting our final FH sides tomorrow morning with explanations behind our picks if you guys are interested, so make sure youāre following if you are!
This is the end of the GW38+ FHing Guide, if youāve made it to the end fair play. This is a humongous thread of 6500 words and the culmination of a weekās worth of research, writing and editing.
We hope weāve helped you and we hope you enjoyed this thread.
We hope weāve helped you and we hope you enjoyed this thread.
If you like the content then RTs, Follows etc. would be appreciated greatly.
The support we've had has been awesome so far and we'd like to thank the community again for that.
Good luck in your Free Hits and thank you very much!
The support we've had has been awesome so far and we'd like to thank the community again for that.
Good luck in your Free Hits and thank you very much!
