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Hard to overstate the significance of this meeting. Merkel, Macron, Sanchez, Conte, & EU Commission President @vonderleyen.
With Germany joining the states pushing for a vast European assistance program for COVID-hit countries, these major powers HAVE to sell their #EuCo agenda. https://twitter.com/GiuseppeConteIT/status/1284808665116155906">https://twitter.com/GiuseppeC...
With Germany joining the states pushing for a vast European assistance program for COVID-hit countries, these major powers HAVE to sell their #EuCo agenda. https://twitter.com/GiuseppeConteIT/status/1284808665116155906">https://twitter.com/GiuseppeC...
Okay, three days in, to summarize:
The primary split is between the South (advocating for shared bonds, wanting 500 billion in grants & 250 billion in loans, etc.) and the Frugals (advocating for so, so much less than that).
#EuCo #EUSummit
The primary split is between the South (advocating for shared bonds, wanting 500 billion in grants & 250 billion in loans, etc.) and the Frugals (advocating for so, so much less than that).
#EuCo #EUSummit
The South is largely composed of Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and much of the bloc, especially in the south/east. Has support from EU Commission President @vonderleyen.
The Frugals are the #Frugal4 (Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Sweden) + Finland.
#EuCo #EUSummit
The Frugals are the #Frugal4 (Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Sweden) + Finland.
#EuCo #EUSummit
(There& #39;s also the ever-wonderful #Frites4 to look out for, per @ratasjuri. The power bloc of Estonia, Luxembourg, Belgium, & Malta).
#EuCo #EUSummit https://twitter.com/ratasjuri/status/1284473094074245123">https://twitter.com/ratasjuri...
#EuCo #EUSummit https://twitter.com/ratasjuri/status/1284473094074245123">https://twitter.com/ratasjuri...
Three days in, a deal is not too far off, at 390 billion euros in grants and 300 billion euros in loans (at least per @eucopresident& #39;s stance).
This compromise would be a far cry from both of the initial positions.
@KappaNewsGr article by @YanniKouts: https://kappanews.gr/2020/07/20/konta-se-symfwnia-gia-to-tameio-anakampsis-sto-eyrwpaiko-symvoulio/">https://kappanews.gr/2020/07/2...
This compromise would be a far cry from both of the initial positions.
@KappaNewsGr article by @YanniKouts: https://kappanews.gr/2020/07/20/konta-se-symfwnia-gia-to-tameio-anakampsis-sto-eyrwpaiko-symvoulio/">https://kappanews.gr/2020/07/2...
Some notes.
1) This is the first EU Summit (& an emergency one, mind you) since #Brexit. In the past, the UK served as the major face of fiscal conservatism and soft Euroscepticism. If PM Rutte & the #Frugal4 seem unpopular, it& #39;s because they now have that role.
#EuCo #EUSummit
1) This is the first EU Summit (& an emergency one, mind you) since #Brexit. In the past, the UK served as the major face of fiscal conservatism and soft Euroscepticism. If PM Rutte & the #Frugal4 seem unpopular, it& #39;s because they now have that role.
#EuCo #EUSummit
2) Much of the disagreement, besides the amount, is regarding the rights -- very simply, the bigger net contributors want to know they control the euro pipeline, so to speak. They want Spanish/Italian fiscal reforms...
#EuCo #EUSummit
#EuCo #EUSummit
...and they want powers to engage with member states who don& #39;t respect rule of law.
This last point is huge, and it deals with two countries in particular: Hungary & Poland.
#EuCo #EUSummit
This last point is huge, and it deals with two countries in particular: Hungary & Poland.
#EuCo #EUSummit
Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán is really the face of this third, little & #39;bloc& #39; (comprising just he & his Polish ally), but he holds a lot of sway. He wants all & #39;rule of law& #39; language off the table, which he ascribes to his country& #39;s past under communism.
#EuCo #EUSummit
#EuCo #EUSummit
This presser by Orbán is an interesting watch. He& #39;s in a good position, knowing that the France-German bloc would rather see the #EURecovery Fund be accepted, even if it means giving him/Morawiecki a pass.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bst2QxlWOBw&feature=emb_title
https://www.youtube.com/watch... href="https://twtext.com//hashtag/EuCo"> #EuCo #EUSummit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bst2QxlWOBw&feature=emb_title
So, anytime Dutch PM Rutte wants to bring it back to the Hungary-Poland issue, Orbán can just bring it back to EU unity/solidarity and he& #39;s covered ("standing with Italy").
The Dutch-Hungarian relationship is suffering from these talks, no doubt.
#EuCo #EUSummit
The Dutch-Hungarian relationship is suffering from these talks, no doubt.
#EuCo #EUSummit
This issue is not going anywhere. France/Germany will likely include Hungary in their camp and move on, just to get #NextGenerationEU passed.
But eventually, somehow, the entire EU will have to reckon with how to engage member states who erode democracy.
#EuCo #EUSummit
But eventually, somehow, the entire EU will have to reckon with how to engage member states who erode democracy.
#EuCo #EUSummit
3) Finally, all of these various pressers and discussions are great, but whatever is agreed upon at the end of this #EUSummit must be sold to the national parliaments in 27 countries AND the European Parliament.
A lot of work to be done.
#EuCo
A lot of work to be done.
#EuCo
I finish this thread with the perspective of a man who knows his stuff, from experience doing it himself:
#EuCo #EUSummit https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1285061980710211585">https://twitter.com/alexstubb...
#EuCo #EUSummit https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1285061980710211585">https://twitter.com/alexstubb...
