Hard to overstate the significance of this meeting. Merkel, Macron, Sanchez, Conte, & EU Commission President @vonderleyen.

With Germany joining the states pushing for a vast European assistance program for COVID-hit countries, these major powers HAVE to sell their #EuCo agenda. https://twitter.com/GiuseppeConteIT/status/1284808665116155906

Okay, three days in, to summarize:

The primary split is between the South (advocating for shared bonds, wanting 500 billion in grants & 250 billion in loans, etc.) and the Frugals (advocating for so, so much less than that).

#EuCo #EUSummit

The South is largely composed of Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and much of the bloc, especially in the south/east. Has support from EU Commission President @vonderleyen.

The Frugals are the #Frugal4 (Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Sweden) + Finland.

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(There's also the ever-wonderful #Frites4 to look out for, per @ratasjuri. The power bloc of Estonia, Luxembourg, Belgium, & Malta).

#EuCo #EUSummit https://twitter.com/ratasjuri/status/1284473094074245123

Three days in, a deal is not too far off, at 390 billion euros in grants and 300 billion euros in loans (at least per @eucopresident's stance).

This compromise would be a far cry from both of the initial positions.

@KappaNewsGr article by @YanniKouts: https://kappanews.gr/2020/07/20/konta-se-symfwnia-gia-to-tameio-anakampsis-sto-eyrwpaiko-symvoulio/

Some notes.

1) This is the first EU Summit (& an emergency one, mind you) since #Brexit. In the past, the UK served as the major face of fiscal conservatism and soft Euroscepticism. If PM Rutte & the #Frugal4 seem unpopular, it's because they now have that role.

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2) Much of the disagreement, besides the amount, is regarding the rights -- very simply, the bigger net contributors want to know they control the euro pipeline, so to speak. They want Spanish/Italian fiscal reforms...

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...and they want powers to engage with member states who don't respect rule of law.

This last point is huge, and it deals with two countries in particular: Hungary & Poland.

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Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán is really the face of this third, little 'bloc' (comprising just he & his Polish ally), but he holds a lot of sway. He wants all 'rule of law' language off the table, which he ascribes to his country's past under communism.

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This presser by Orbán is an interesting watch. He's in a good position, knowing that the France-German bloc would rather see the #EURecovery Fund be accepted, even if it means giving him/Morawiecki a pass.



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So, anytime Dutch PM Rutte wants to bring it back to the Hungary-Poland issue, Orbán can just bring it back to EU unity/solidarity and he's covered ("standing with Italy").

The Dutch-Hungarian relationship is suffering from these talks, no doubt.

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This issue is not going anywhere. France/Germany will likely include Hungary in their camp and move on, just to get #NextGenerationEU passed.

But eventually, somehow, the entire EU will have to reckon with how to engage member states who erode democracy.

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3) Finally, all of these various pressers and discussions are great, but whatever is agreed upon at the end of this #EUSummit must be sold to the national parliaments in 27 countries AND the European Parliament.

A lot of work to be done.

#EuCo

I finish this thread with the perspective of a man who knows his stuff, from experience doing it himself:

#EuCo #EUSummit https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1285061980710211585