Thread by @SteveBakerHW, Via @spectator,"Some of those claiming to be ‘following the science’ seem not [...]

Via @spectator,

"Some of those claiming to be ‘following the science’ seem not to understand the meaning of the word."

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-strong-was-the-scientific-advice-behind-lockdown

My letter and brief to @BorisJohnson on expert failure and what to do about it.

References (thread)

A very brief introduction:

The fallen state of experts
How can governments learn from their expert failings?
Roger Koppl, The Critic, 7 May 2020 https://bit.ly/FallenExperts

The fallen state of experts | Roger Koppl | The Critic Magazine

If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, you’re not paying attention to the experts. Epidemiologists tell us that if we do not hide in our houses with the door securely locked…

https://bit.ly/FallenExperts

Three linked articles:

Pandemics and the Problem of Expert Failure

Part 1: Which Experts Matter in a Pandemic?

Roger Koppl, The Library of Economics and Liberty, 30 March 2020 https://bit.ly/Koppl1

Pandemics and the Problem of Expert Failure - Econlib

Part 1: Which Experts Matter in a Pandemic? Before the COVID-19 pandemic, we might have thought that “the experts” knew best and could guide us. But there is more than one area of expertise. And the...

https://bit.ly/Koppl1

Pandemics and the Problem of Expert Failure

Part 2: Should Experts Agree?

Roger Koppl, The Library of Economics and Liberty, 31 March 2020 https://bit.ly/Koppl2

Pandemics and the Problem of Expert Failure (continued) - Econlib

Part 2: Should Experts Agree? In my last EconLog essay, I examined the impossible tradeoff between expert fields. Each area of expertise is a separate silo, I argued, and we don’t have any good way...

https://bit.ly/Koppl2

Pandemics and the Problem of Expert Failure

Part 3: Should Experts Have Power?

Roger Koppl, The Library of Economics and Liberty, 2 April 2020 https://bit.ly/Koppl3

Pandemics and the Problem of Expert Failure (cont.) - Econlib

Part 3: Should Experts Have Power? In my last two EconLog essays (here and here), I examined some of the causes of expert failure seemingly at work in the present crisis. I pointed out that we don’t...

https://bit.ly/Koppl3

Textbook:

Expert Failure

Cambridge Studies in Economics, Choice, and Society, Cambridge University Press, Roger Koppl, 2 August 2018

https://smile.amazon.co.uk/dp/1316503046/ref=cm_sw_em_r_mt_dp_U_ss09EbCE1EQC3

Four Recommendations:

1. Simulate a market for expert advice using competing expert groups in the same field.

2. In particular, require three independent expert opinions on critical policy.

3. Expose the partial perspective of experts by bringing together complementary fields.

4. Employ “red teams” (advocati diaboli) to challenge the prevailing expert opinion.

'We have not overthrown the divine right of kings to fall down for the divine right of experts’ – Harold Macmillan

Oh yes we have. Regrettably.

Time for challenge and change.

https://twitter.com/stevebakerhw/status/1276145205683650562?s=21 https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1276145205683650562

https://twitter.com/stevebakerhw/status/1276145205683650562?s=21

The question to @BorisJohnson in the @HouseofCommons

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2020-06-23/debates/7E464B41-46ED-4FA9-BAFD-28EC7B3DA230/Covid-19Update?highlight=expert#contribution-0074E4FF-492D-4FDD-B7FC-783230B1CCBE

Also good from @AlistairHaimes:

"Ignoring the Covid evidence

"Far from following the science, the government turned its back on all available data" https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/july-august-2020/ignoring-the-covid-evidence/

Ignoring the Covid Evidence | Alistair Haimes | The Critic Magazine

I am writing these words at the beginning of June, but you should by now be looking back on the worst of the UK’s Covid-19 epidemic. History books will dissect every aspect of the disease and…

https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/july-august-2020/ignoring-the-covid-evidence/

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