First off, I liked how, in the tradition of great American speeches, Biden framed the #ClimateCrisis as an opportunity for the nation to rise to a great challenge and become stronger in the process. That's exactly the way we should view climate change. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/biden-climate-plan.html
Politically, it's smart for Biden to hammer Trump on climate. There is broad support among Americans on clean energy. Challenging Trump on climate is timely too. Biden would do well to compare Trump's climate denial to his mishandling of #COVID19. https://twitter.com/EmilDimanchev/status/1275848709398573058?s=20
On policy, at this stage in the campaign we cannot expect everything to be fully fleshed out. But as the devil is in the details, it matters to know what exactly Biden is proposing and how he plans to achieve it. So what does the plan contain?
Surprisingly, Biden's plan does not in fact contain an economy-wide net-zero emission goal. It merely states it will put the country on a path to one. There is a big difference between the two. And are we talking CO2 or GHG emissions here? It's unclear.
What I would much rather see is a legislative target that binds the country and provides a clear, unambiguous signal to the economy that drives private sector investment. The House's recent climate plan called for one. Biden is being more cautious. https://twitter.com/EmilDimanchev/status/1277978305694556161?s=20
Biden's first focus is on infrastructure, a timely economic policy response to the impacts of #COVID19, as well as an opportunity to compensate for long-neglected needed upgrades, with emphasis on roads, rail, transit, broadband, and water and federal $ as the source of funding.
The plan mentions grid upgrades, a critical component of electricity decarbonization, as my research and that of others shows. But there is a lot left uncovered, especially relative to detailed proposals in the House. See @MilesFarmer's thread on those: https://twitter.com/MilesFarmer/status/1277948323496935424?s=20
For the grid, Biden mentions "easier permitting" but does not elaborate on how to balance national needs and state siting rights. The plan will prioritize existing right of ways (good) but that is unlikely to be sufficient to allow us to make the most of our renewable resources.
What's great is that Biden's infrastructure plan accounts for the needs of disadvantaged communities and aims to address disparities in investments and access. Federal investments will also include measures to enforce labor standards.
What's notable about the plan is how much it emphasizes the auto industry, which is Biden's 2nd main focus. Biden wants America to be a leader in electric vehicles and will deploy "all levers" to make it happen.
The plan includes a "cash for clunkers" type of policy, federal investment in EV charging, battery R&D investments, and "ambitious" (no more clarity provided) fuel economy standards to drive up gasoline miles-per-gallon.
One of the few explicit targets in the whole plan is for "all new American-built buses [to] be zero-emissions by 2030". To me this seems like a low-hanging fruit that shows some ambition but once again the plan is notable for what it lacks: there are no 0-CO2 vehicle targets.
On electricity, the plan includes a standard for zero carbon electricity by 2035 called the "Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standard". The name is interesting for the way it combines efficiency with clean electricity, indicating a relatively large role for the former.
Biden's approach here is technology neutral. He notes the need for making the most of *existing* nuclear and hydro. The plan includes support for carbon capture through federal R&D spending. There is something here to please practically everyone.
On buildings, the plan features some exciting ideas: federal spending on commercial retrofits, cash rebates and low-cost financing for household upgrades, including electrification, building codes, and a law for a 2030 net-0 emissions standard for all new commercial buildings.
Here too Biden's plan combines climate goals with other broader goals. It includes a plan for building new energy efficient affordable housing and schools, with emphasis on lower-income and rural regions. This kind of complementarity is smart policy.
Staying true to Biden's vision for turning climate change into an opportunity, the plan emphasizes innovation by proposing a new agency modeled after ARPA-E but focused on climate: ARPA-C, to pursue promising long-shots that couldn't be done in the private sector.
The plan foresees that this agency will focus on a lot of critical and difficult to decarbonize areas including: energy storage, advanced nuclear, refrigerants that don't emit GHGs, net zero buildings, green hydrogen, industrial heat, soil management, an direct-air CO2 capture.
In addition to ARPA-C, the plan includes another creative institutional proposal for a Civilian Climate Corps to work on conservation of public lands, forest management, and community resilience. This is meant to address both jobs and climate adaptation needs.
Sustainable agriculture and conservation is one of Biden's 6 main areas of focus, which is good to see not only because there is a lot of unexplored potential for climate mitigation but also from a political economy perspective.
The agricultural sector part of the plan includes the only mention of anything related to #carbonpricing in the whole proposal by including a plan for a new "voluntary carbon farming market", which I imagine will be a program of carbon offsets.
Climate justice is emphasized throughout the plan but it is also featured as a separate area of focus (the 7th and the last), which includes a goal that "disadvantaged communities receive 40% of benefits of spending [on] clean energy and energy efficiency".
There is a plan for a Climate and Economic Justice Screening tool, which I as a wonk naturally think is neat. This will help expose disparities in climate and policy impacts and direct investments equitably.
All in all, Biden's plan features a lot of welcome aspirations, many smart policy ideas, and a few specific targets, while largely shying away from discussing costs, funding sources, carbon pricing, or border tariffs. For a campaign plan that's understandable.
However, I still find troubling the omission of an overall net-zero target and an emission or technology target in transportation (other than the one for buses), the largest source of CO2 in the US.
My overarching conclusion is that this is a bold and inspiring plan that makes Biden deserving of the vote this November of every citizen concerned about our future as a nation faced with climate change.
I realize my conclusion stood oddly in the context of my critiques. To clarify, I see this as only the first step, a campaign pledge that is necessarily less than fully detailed. I look forward to all of us working together to improve upon it and make climate policy happen. /end
You can follow @EmilDimanchev.
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