Today is our day to be in the @ThirdWayEDU spotlight.

Before #COVID19 we became increasingly interested over who was likely engaged in #IncomeDrivenRepayment as little remains known related to the topic. https://twitter.com/ThirdWayEDU/status/1284118405457510400

Guided by my former work and Yanelis and Looney's work we tested several models with nationally represented data.

Related to earnings and TOTAL student loan debt (careful reading source material is important) we found that different models produced different results.

The unstable results were not expected but illustrate the caution to which people should talk about who is enrolled.

Two factors stood out - those with $50k+ in loan debt were generally more likely to be enrolled.

And those earning <$12,500 could probably use the safety of IDR.

The most stable result was that female borrowers were more likely than male borrower to enroll.

We also saw in many regressions that persons of color were more likely to be enrolled - and we believe this absolutely needs more attention/confirmation.

Like my former study enrollment in IDR did not correlate to statical differences in savings and homeownership.

This is a GREAT finding and possible trend as it shows that IDR may be providing the intended financial safety.

As stated in our working paper and brief, this is the start of a conversation and these trends are not set. BUT we need to be more careful when we consider changes to IDR policy as the debate is usually centered on costs to government and "savy" borrowers (looks 620 miles SE).

Finally, based upon trends from the Great Recession and the obvious understanding that the #COVID19 pandemic has introduced a boatload of economic uncertainty for young adults (+ for everyone) that #IDR enrollment is going to explode. (Gatsby is intentional given social backdrop)

We are reluctant to be specific by how much due to so much uncertainty and the CARES Act proving some degree of safety. However, given the piece I RTed yesterday on food insecure borrowers, I think the evidence is showing we are likely more correct than not.

There's much more we have to know like does residency zip code correlate to enrollment? My former study suggests it may.

How did REPAYE influence enrollment? The SCF 2019 data can help is answer that (it's not yet out).

What INFLUENCES IDR enrollment and WHEN? Working on it.

I want to again say how blessed I am to be in the company of @wdoyle42, @bakerdphd, @odedgurantz, and @CeciliaOrphan. I'm super confident in my abilities and whatnot but it's always a bit humbling to be included with outstanding peeps like this.

Also I want to thank @ThirdWayEDU and @MichelleDimino for the opportunity. They've been outstanding to work with!

Lastly, I want to draw attention to the uniqueness of my team's headshots.

T-shirt
Bow tie
Long tie

Sums us up, I think that comes out nicely in our work.

Most of the time though, it results in a bunch of jackasses standing in a circle (never take yourselves too seriously).

Read the non-nationally representative study here:

https://ir.library.louisville.edu/jsfa/vol49/iss2/3/

And the study this brief is based on here:

https://preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/article-details/5e8b3bedcf138e0019f49641