If we can agree that the market was saved by 0% interest rates / QE Infinity / CARES ACT Stimulus Package, then all things equal (Fed policy), the 2nd Stimulus Package (dubbed the HEROES Act) is very important to asset prices.

The Fed has already announced that it plans to keep 0% rates thru '22. Remember stocks are not effected by pure profit but rate of change #s. If we go from a run rate of $3T stimulus to anything less, that is by definition bearish regardless of the sheer insanity of the figures

2nd stimulus package is the $3 Trillion HEROES Act co-sponsored by 11 Democrats.

As it stands, to most Americans it will amount to another $1,200 in free money.

It passed in the House on May 15 by 208-199 (only passed by 9 votes, 14 Ds voted against it).

Now it goes to Senate

The timeframe to pass the HEROES Act in the Senate is between July 20 - Aug 8, or after Sept 8. when Senate returns from recess.

If Congress is GOING to pass it, they'll pass it before August 8 and not 1 month before one of the most hotly contested elections of all time imho.

The Senate is comprised of 53 republicans, 45 democrats, 2 I's.

Given the fact that almost all Rs in the house of representatives voted against the HEROES Act, I think it's safe to say the Republicans who outnumber their Democrat counterparts in the Senate are not going to roll over and pass the Democratic House's bill.

So between July 20 and August 8 they'll negotiate, they'll wrangle, and we will hear all about it on the News.

The Senate and the House have to pass the SAME bill so the only way you guarantee passage of HEROES Act before the November election is if you can get 13 (!) Republicans to side with the 45 Dems/Independents in the Senate to overcome a Filibuster (60 votes).

Also Improbable

The narrative is a country locked down and divided and the crash will be blamed NOT on the Fed but on the lack of FISCAL support. The more this realization sets in the lower the markets will go into the Election with Trump's chances growing slimmer and slimmer as the weeks pass.

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