Anyone contemplating a foreign holiday should read this first.

I've gone through the global situation of 65 countries (from USA down) and where they stand if the Green List was published today:

New cases, July 2-July 16:

USA 857,836
Brazil 513,385
India 378,469
South Africa 156,160
Russia 91,632
Mexico 85,530
Colombia 67,096
Peru 49,582
Saudi Arabia 45,630
Argentina 44,842
Bangladesh 43,046
Pakistan 40,105
Chile 39,157
Iran 34,198
Iraq 32,440
Kazakhstan 22,614

Philippines 22,461
Indonesia 22,274
Oman 20,019
Israel 19,012
Bolivia 16,690
Panama 15,136
Turkey 14,589
Dominican Republic 14,546
Egypt 14,472
Guatemala 12,867
Ecuador 11,897
Ukraine 10,558
Kuwait 9,809
Honduras 9,774
Spain 8,752
UK 8,276
Ghana 7,991
Nigeria 7,744

Qatar 7,580
Azerbaijan 7,481
France 7,460
Romania 7,257
Bahrain 7,247
Armenia 6,901
Algeria 6,698
UAE 6,660
Sweden 6,238
Uzbekistan 5,988
Germany 5,119
Portugal 4,932
Canada 4,492
Japan 4,106
Poland 3,908
Serbia 3,802
Morocco 3,576
Cameroon 3,565
Moldova 3,114

Afghanistan 3,048
Belarus 2,925
Nepal 2,825
Italy 2,775
Singapore 2,816
Belgium 1,471
Czechia 1,434
Austria 1,329
Switzerland 1,323
Netherlands 1,016
Ireland 228
China 80

To get on to the Irish Green List of Safe Countries, there are 3 criteria assessed:

1. Low cumulative 14-day incidence of infection
2. Decreasing trend in infection
3. Positive assessment of testing/tracing and reliability of data in that country.

What # 14-day incidence you need to be under depends.

At the moment, for EU Safe List you need to be below 16.0 per 100,000. (EU avg is around 14)

To get into Finland, you need to be below 8.0 per 100,000.

It's arbitrary and can change.

I don't know how Ireland are weighting their criteria.

A country could make the list despite being 13.5, because the general trend is strongly downwards. A country being 10.5 might miss out due to rising trends.

Anyway, under 13.0 is good infection control, lets look:

New cases per 100,000 (July 2-16):

(No hope for these...)

Bahrain - 461.9
Oman - 414.6
Panama - 362.4
Qatar - 272.4
South Africa - 270.2
Brazil - 245.1
Kuwait - 237.1
USA - 236.4
Armenia - 232.7
Israel - 214.1
Peru - 154.99

Bolivia - 147.1
Dominican Republic - 136.8
Saudi Arabia - 135.4
Colombia - 135.1
Kazakhstan - 123.7
Honduras - 101.9
Argentina - 100.8
Moldova - 87.9
Iraq - 84.4
Azerbaijan - 74.9
Guatemala - 74.6
Ecuador - 69.7
UAE - 69.1
Mexico - 67.7
Chile - 67.7

Sweden - 66.5
Russia - 63.4
Serbia - 54.5
Singapore - 49.9
Portugal - 48.4
Iran - 41.8
Romania - 35.9
Belarus - 30.9
India - 27.97
Ghana - 26.8
Bangladesh - 26.7
Ukraine - 25.1
Philippines - 21.1
Pakistan - 18.9
Uzbekistan - 18.2
Turkey - 17.8

Decent shot IF things trend downwards in the coming week:

Algeria - 15.8
Spain - 15.7
Switzerland - 15.4
Egypt - 14.7
Austria - 14.7
Cameroon - 14.1
Czechia - 13.4

Things are going in the wrong direction for some of them ^

Likely Making the List:

Belgium - 12.6
UK - 12.4
Canada - 11.9
France - 11.3
Poland - 10.5

Borderline:

Nepal - 10.0
Morocco - 9.9

Nepal and Morocco have excellent testing/tracing for their regions but they're well below Irish levels. Both have good arguments to make it.

Certainly on Green List as it stands:

Germany - 6.1
Netherlands - 5.1
Italy - 4.6
(Ireland - 4.2)
Japan - 3.2
China - 0.006

Under 10, but likely excluded based on sweet feck all testing/tracing happening:

Afghanistan - 8.7
Indonesia - 8.3

Following are rock solid safe, with excellent testing regimes:

Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Cyprus, New Zealand, South Korea, Greece, Bermuda, Maldives, Mauritius (amazing testing in Bermuda,Maldives & Mauritius), Slovakia, Jordan, Uruguay

In terms of holidays, don't go abroad is one idea.

Point of a Green List is if you're going to go, it's to go somewhere safe.

The most consistently safe places in Europe have been the Baltic States, who all have tremendous testing regimes and haven't put a foot wrong.

Ireland is on all Green Lists I've seen, bar Denmark, who advise Danish citizens not to visit Ireland.

Not because of infection levels but because our 14-day quarantine makes it pointless for Danish to holiday here. We are welcome to go to there.

Responsible stuff Denmark :)

Of the usual destinations Irish people tend to go to, Greece and Cyprus have been consistently safe.

Cyprus in particular have a seriously impressive test/trace operation and launched their tracing app on *May 2nd*.

Ahead of the game in Cyprus, well done to them.

This is all just an opinion, based on facts.

I'm trying to give people a rough guide so you don't waste your money booking holidays to places that definitely won't make it.

A pandemic is fluid, all countries can experience rapid rises in infection.

We've plenty of good destinations in Ireland and a lot of small businesses, hotels, restaurants are hurting and could do with the business.

Worth keeping in mind.

But I wouldn't judge anyone heading off abroad to a Green List place.

Life is hard, wash your hands and enjoy.