This is the first EU budget negotiation where I am not involved in the end game. Did parts of Agenda 2000 as a civil servant, 2007-14 as an MEP (lesser role) and 2014-20 as Europe Minister in charge of the Finnish negotiations. This time up until January leading @eib team...

There is always lots of drama around negotiations on money, never more so than now with the other rescue packages bringing the total tally north of 2,5 trillion euros. I do not want to spoil the party, but European leaders will clinch a deal either over the weekend or...

...before the end July. It is much easier to find a compromise when there is such an array of issues on table to bargain for. Before that there will be the usual drama of public statements, historic crisis, deadlocks, misunderstood and misjudged statemens...

... stalemates, interruptions, breaks, confessionals, compromise packages and the rest of it. The challenge for each and every leader in the room and civil servants and ministers in the back office is to stay on top of what is being decided. You have to focus on...

...two or three of your own top priorities which you sell at home. This is for instance what we did, and may add rather successfully, in the final hours of the negotiations in 2014. And yes, it is important to get in a few short naps in the middle of the night. Keeps you fresh...

My prediction is as good as yours, but the first possibility for a deal is sometime between Saturday night and Sunday morning. The more likely scenario is a couple of all-nighters and a deal on Monday. Failing that, deal end of July. #MFF #EUCO

And a final word. I have said it before and I will say it again: I sat next to Angela Merkel in the European Council. She will be instrumental in mustering the final deal. Why? Because she knows the details and big picture better than anyone in the room or back room.