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THE FUTURE CONSUMER - TRENDS FORECASTING
-Worldwide connectivity rising
-EMOTIONAL CONTAGION: A behaviour in which people mimic the feelings around them
Aligning w/ the mindsets below will be the difference between growth and stagnation
THREAD: On Macro + Societal Drivers
-Worldwide connectivity rising
-EMOTIONAL CONTAGION: A behaviour in which people mimic the feelings around them
Aligning w/ the mindsets below will be the difference between growth and stagnation
THREAD: On Macro + Societal Drivers
Let's discuss 4 global sentiments before digging into our key consumer groups.
1. FEAR
2. DSYNCHRONIZED SOCIETY
3. EQUITABLE RESILIENCE
4. RADICAL OPTIMISM
1. FEAR
2. DSYNCHRONIZED SOCIETY
3. EQUITABLE RESILIENCE
4. RADICAL OPTIMISM
SENTIMENT 1 - FEAR
ECO-ANXIETY
-worldwide surveys indicate 90% of global respondents have fear of a climate crisis
-Northern India air quality is so bad causing a rise in teen inactivity, sentiments similarily felt in US, Australia, and China
ECO-ANXIETY
-worldwide surveys indicate 90% of global respondents have fear of a climate crisis
-Northern India air quality is so bad causing a rise in teen inactivity, sentiments similarily felt in US, Australia, and China
FINANCIAL UNCERTAINTY
-decade since '08 financial crisis
-54% of american believe financial security between themselves and their family is unattainable
-OECD paper published in 2019 indicated millennials are falling out of the middle class
-compounded by unemployment + pandemic
-decade since '08 financial crisis
-54% of american believe financial security between themselves and their family is unattainable
-OECD paper published in 2019 indicated millennials are falling out of the middle class
-compounded by unemployment + pandemic
EMOTIONAL CONTAGION
-NY Times study found most shared articles were "high arousal" ones of awe, anger, or fear
-social media tech grown exponentially, EC more prominent than ever.
-24 hour news cycle, impossible to eescape deaths, unemployment rates, impending financial crisis
-NY Times study found most shared articles were "high arousal" ones of awe, anger, or fear
-social media tech grown exponentially, EC more prominent than ever.
-24 hour news cycle, impossible to eescape deaths, unemployment rates, impending financial crisis
SENTIMENT 2 - DYSNCHRONIZED SOCIETY
-excaserbated by COVID-19
-we no longer watch news at 7PM at home, work, go to the gym, post office etc. at the same time
-in uncertain times, people crave stability/routine, yet society is shifting the opposite
-excaserbated by COVID-19
-we no longer watch news at 7PM at home, work, go to the gym, post office etc. at the same time
-in uncertain times, people crave stability/routine, yet society is shifting the opposite
-9-5 lost dominance
-24 hr food delivery, same day shipping, global workforces, same-day shipping
Loss of daily interaction -> communities fracture
-24 hr food delivery, same day shipping, global workforces, same-day shipping
Loss of daily interaction -> communities fracture
SENTIMENT 3 - EQUITABLE RESILIENCE
-in accelerated uncertainty, resilience becomes an emotional priority
-studies show those who embrace negative emotions have better negotiation and decision-making skills, stable marriages, more wealth
-COVID-19 = time for mass reflection
-in accelerated uncertainty, resilience becomes an emotional priority
-studies show those who embrace negative emotions have better negotiation and decision-making skills, stable marriages, more wealth
-COVID-19 = time for mass reflection
SENTIMENT 4 - RADICAL OPTIMISM
-in 2020 there's more to be angry/fearful about than celebrated.
-24 hour news cycle is dismal, society antisocial, pandemic causing mass panic...
- yet change is occuring
-radical optimism will push thru the negative
-in 2020 there's more to be angry/fearful about than celebrated.
-24 hour news cycle is dismal, society antisocial, pandemic causing mass panic...
- yet change is occuring
-radical optimism will push thru the negative
-without discounting the socio-political unrest, health and economic challenges, things are getting better
-Enlightment Now by psychologist Steven Pinker looked at studies around the world- he believes the world is getting BETTER rather than WORSE
-Enlightment Now by psychologist Steven Pinker looked at studies around the world- he believes the world is getting BETTER rather than WORSE
-Reliable data showing life has improved globally
-health dramatically reduced infant/maternal mortality
-incomes globally improving
- Accoding to University of Oxford, 2B ppl living in extreme poverty in 1990, 2015 only 700mm
-health dramatically reduced infant/maternal mortality
-incomes globally improving
- Accoding to University of Oxford, 2B ppl living in extreme poverty in 1990, 2015 only 700mm
MEET YOUR FUTURE CONSUMER
1. THE STABILIZERS
2. THE SETTLERS
3. THE NEW OPTIMISTS
1. THE STABILIZERS
2. THE SETTLERS
3. THE NEW OPTIMISTS
1. THE STABILIZERS
Mainly Millennials & Gen X - prioritizing stability across all aspects of their lives, reaction to desynchronization and feelings of chronic uncertainty.
Opting out of the culty of productivity -> embrace radical acceptance
Mainly Millennials & Gen X - prioritizing stability across all aspects of their lives, reaction to desynchronization and feelings of chronic uncertainty.
Opting out of the culty of productivity -> embrace radical acceptance
-always on mentality - results in high levels of global anxiety and depression
-reaction to burnout
-how can we optimize careers, personal lives, bodies, and time?
Self Improvement market was 9.9bn in 2016, estimated to grow to 13.2bn in 2022 with 5.6% yearly gains
-reaction to burnout
-how can we optimize careers, personal lives, bodies, and time?
Self Improvement market was 9.9bn in 2016, estimated to grow to 13.2bn in 2022 with 5.6% yearly gains
the antidote to over-optimiztion is "radical acceptance" - the willingness to experience life and ourselves as they are.
self improvement is a CULT (see money twitter lmao)
paradox between self improvements and self acceptance
self improvement is a CULT (see money twitter lmao)
paradox between self improvements and self acceptance
this means TRULY trying to imrpvoe and allocate time to resources accordingly
"we are being sold on the need to upgrade all parts of ourselves at once, even the ones we had no idea needing upgrading"
"we are being sold on the need to upgrade all parts of ourselves at once, even the ones we had no idea needing upgrading"
WAYS TO ENGAGE
1. SIMPLICITY MATTERS
2. CALM COMMERCE
3. UNIFIED COMMERCE = UNIFIED COMMUNICATIONS
1. SIMPLICITY MATTERS
2. CALM COMMERCE
3. UNIFIED COMMERCE = UNIFIED COMMUNICATIONS
SIMPLICITY MATTERS
The Current Challenge - time pressed/overwhelemed, Stabilizers hate heavy product volume. Clutter LOSES conversions
The Opportunity - declutter shopping experience, focus on direct/concise labeling. don't bring them on a journey -> save them time.
The Current Challenge - time pressed/overwhelemed, Stabilizers hate heavy product volume. Clutter LOSES conversions
The Opportunity - declutter shopping experience, focus on direct/concise labeling. don't bring them on a journey -> save them time.
CASE STUDIES
Aldi: doubled US Store Count over the past decade , third largest behind big grocery stores like Walmart + Kroger
Aldi SKU count 1,400 vs 40,000.
curated options driving growth + cult-like following
https://www.aldi.us/
Aldi: doubled US Store Count over the past decade , third largest behind big grocery stores like Walmart + Kroger
Aldi SKU count 1,400 vs 40,000.
curated options driving growth + cult-like following
https://www.aldi.us/
Mapeei
Zero-waste lifestyle store in SĂŁo Paulo.
product categories such as:
"On the Go" - lunch boxes, travel containers
"House Without Trash" - everyday household items
curated products, decision-free navigation, clean store messaging https://www.umavidasemplastico.com.br/
Zero-waste lifestyle store in SĂŁo Paulo.
product categories such as:
"On the Go" - lunch boxes, travel containers
"House Without Trash" - everyday household items
curated products, decision-free navigation, clean store messaging https://www.umavidasemplastico.com.br/
Takeo Mihoncho Honten
-Tokyo paper retailer -> prime example of single-product store.
-Simplicity key in layout, 2,700 types of pper arranged by shade and size, taking guesswork + frustration out of a potentially overwhelming shopping experience
https://www.takeo.co.jp/en/finder/mihoncho/
-Tokyo paper retailer -> prime example of single-product store.
-Simplicity key in layout, 2,700 types of pper arranged by shade and size, taking guesswork + frustration out of a potentially overwhelming shopping experience
https://www.takeo.co.jp/en/finder/mihoncho/
2. CALM COMMERCE
Tracking the rise of the mood market, this continus to be a dominant path to purchase. COVID19 driven this strategyto the forefront for products offering respite from uncertainties. RIPE for longterm investment
Tracking the rise of the mood market, this continus to be a dominant path to purchase. COVID19 driven this strategyto the forefront for products offering respite from uncertainties. RIPE for longterm investment
Current Challenge: Stabilizers continue to prioritize Zen-like in-store experiences and products designed to relieve stress and soothe anxiety
The Opportunity: need is evolving beyond fashion/beauty, high rates of consumers looking for every day shops for moments of calm.
The Opportunity: need is evolving beyond fashion/beauty, high rates of consumers looking for every day shops for moments of calm.
CASE STUDIES
Eath Library Showroom: Tradition meets innovation in Seoul. beauty skincare brand offers tea, ample natural lighting, encouraging shoppers to unwind before browsing.
http://en.eathlibrary.com/
Eath Library Showroom: Tradition meets innovation in Seoul. beauty skincare brand offers tea, ample natural lighting, encouraging shoppers to unwind before browsing.
http://en.eathlibrary.com/
3. UNIFIED COMMERCE = UNIFIED COMMUNICATIONS
cosumers see the beenfits of unified commerce, taking omni-channel's many systems of record and merging them to one system.
cosumers see the beenfits of unified commerce, taking omni-channel's many systems of record and merging them to one system.
The Current Challenge: while commerce merge towards Unified Commerce, they to make sure they do it right. constant messaging is overwhelming.
The Opportunity:
1. double down on psychographic segmentation - determine key priorities in target platform campaign
2. Invest in a feedback loop
3. adop a less-is-more approac
1. double down on psychographic segmentation - determine key priorities in target platform campaign
2. Invest in a feedback loop
3. adop a less-is-more approac
2. THE SETTLERS
Desperate to redefine the global "hustle hard" work cycle, comprising of Millennials and Gen Xer's, are looking to plant roots in their community w/o sacrificing their careers, and driving a new era of localism in the progress
Desperate to redefine the global "hustle hard" work cycle, comprising of Millennials and Gen Xer's, are looking to plant roots in their community w/o sacrificing their careers, and driving a new era of localism in the progress
2018 Gallup Study found 2/3 workers suffer from psych effects of overwork. burnt out employees have 37% higher absenteeism, 18% lower productivity, 15% lower productivity
-slow shift in work culture to avoid burnout
-slow shift in work culture to avoid burnout
As clearer work-life boundaries emerge, so does a circular economy driven by localism
-fewer office hours = less electricity consumption
- four day work week boosts productivity 40% + reduces electricity 23% according to Microsoft Japan
-fewer office hours = less electricity consumption
- four day work week boosts productivity 40% + reduces electricity 23% according to Microsoft Japan
Henley Biz School un UK discovered implementing a 4-day work week increase happiness, less tress by 70%+ and 62% took fewer days off sick!
Ways to Engage:
1. ACTION TO ARCHIVES
2. HYPER-LOCALIZD SOCIAL COMMERCE
3. SECOND-TIER CITIES
1. ACTION TO ARCHIVES
2. HYPER-LOCALIZD SOCIAL COMMERCE
3. SECOND-TIER CITIES
1. ACTION TO ARCHIVES
Current Challenge: rather than prioritizing "newness" of purchasing apparel, cohort is gravitating towards sustainable, community driven initiatives + stores
Current Challenge: rather than prioritizing "newness" of purchasing apparel, cohort is gravitating towards sustainable, community driven initiatives + stores
The Opportunity: peer-to-peer commerce continues to gain market share from DTC. Opening dedicated stores/web shops with past collections does two-fold:
- drives local foottraffic
- feeds consumer demand for exclusive products in a sustainable way
- drives local foottraffic
- feeds consumer demand for exclusive products in a sustainable way
CASE STUDY
SĂ©zane: French womenswear label opened archive collection in 2019 with dedicated online store. give cosumers a chance to discover pieces they might have missed on previous seasons, all at lowers prices.
https://www.sezane.com/us
SĂ©zane: French womenswear label opened archive collection in 2019 with dedicated online store. give cosumers a chance to discover pieces they might have missed on previous seasons, all at lowers prices.
https://www.sezane.com/us
2. HYPER-LOCALIZED SOCIAL COMMERCE
Current Challenge: traditional and institutional brands continue to lose market share to local retailers and community based platforms
The Opportunity: ID social commerce platforms for strategic partnershps that best align with product offer
Current Challenge: traditional and institutional brands continue to lose market share to local retailers and community based platforms
The Opportunity: ID social commerce platforms for strategic partnershps that best align with product offer
CASE STUDY
Storr: more than 30K vendors in US selling 175 brandsm Storr keeps expanding. Users can open an online marketplace in 3 steps on their phone. store hands logistics, returns, payments. Sellers paid up to 30% sales commmisions https://www.storr.social/
Storr: more than 30K vendors in US selling 175 brandsm Storr keeps expanding. Users can open an online marketplace in 3 steps on their phone. store hands logistics, returns, payments. Sellers paid up to 30% sales commmisions https://www.storr.social/
MyBeautybrand
P2P platofrm created as an antidote to influencers, it allows Millennials and Gen Z to express their beauty personalties, share favorite products and earn commission products they sell
https://www.mybeautybrand.com/
P2P platofrm created as an antidote to influencers, it allows Millennials and Gen Z to express their beauty personalties, share favorite products and earn commission products they sell
https://www.mybeautybrand.com/
3. SECOND-TIR CITIES
The Current Challenge: in Amazon era, retailers are strugglign to meet logistics and product demands outside of urban hubs
The Opportunity: retailers need micro fulfillment to stay competitive with The Settlers
The Current Challenge: in Amazon era, retailers are strugglign to meet logistics and product demands outside of urban hubs
The Opportunity: retailers need micro fulfillment to stay competitive with The Settlers
CASE STUDIES
Target - micro-fulfillment strat, remodelling 300 stores/yr to speed up delivery to local markets. US Stores handle 80% of retailer's digital volume
Uniqlo - using data from existing stores determine location of future physical stores in emerging China regions
Target - micro-fulfillment strat, remodelling 300 stores/yr to speed up delivery to local markets. US Stores handle 80% of retailer's digital volume
Uniqlo - using data from existing stores determine location of future physical stores in emerging China regions
3. THE NEW OPTIMISTS
By far the most varied cohort, they range from Gen Z to Boomers, but despite the broad demo, they have many unifiers, the largest being an appetite for HAPPINESS
By far the most varied cohort, they range from Gen Z to Boomers, but despite the broad demo, they have many unifiers, the largest being an appetite for HAPPINESS
- wants accurate representation for all
-healthy approach to activism + emotional burnout
-strive for age equality
-looking to redefine what role models look like, in culture of "youth"
-less about social clout, more about spending time with friends/family
-healthy approach to activism + emotional burnout
-strive for age equality
-looking to redefine what role models look like, in culture of "youth"
-less about social clout, more about spending time with friends/family
WAYS TO ENGAGE
1. LIVING IN LIVESTREAMS
2. AR/VR SHOPPING
3. ON-DEMAND EVOLUTION
4. THE POWER (AND SAVINGS) OF THE PACK
1. LIVING IN LIVESTREAMS
2. AR/VR SHOPPING
3. ON-DEMAND EVOLUTION
4. THE POWER (AND SAVINGS) OF THE PACK
1. LIVING IN LIVESTREAMS
-livestreaming HUGE in China, reviewing products on IG Live while encouraging sales. (generated $4.4B in sales 2018)
-pandemic causing shift to livestreaming
-livestreaming HUGE in China, reviewing products on IG Live while encouraging sales. (generated $4.4B in sales 2018)
-pandemic causing shift to livestreaming
-SARS 2003 rebound attributed to rise of e-commerce in China, similarily COVID-19 is normalizing livestream sales for Western Europ and Northern America
The Current Challenge: oversaturated with online advertising, willing to turn to livestream for bargains
The Opportunity: retailers should invest in branded livestream shopping events to drive sales
The Opportunity: retailers should invest in branded livestream shopping events to drive sales
Note: more than $413B of goods will be sold through Ecommerce in china by 2022, a FIVE-FOLD INCREASE from $90B IN 2017, according to Frost & Sullivan
CASE STUDIES
Estée Lauder: hosted daily celeb livstreaming campaigns during week leading up to Black Friday in China. presales reached $70m in first 25 minutes, surpassing single day sales from 2018 (INSANE??)
Estée Lauder: hosted daily celeb livstreaming campaigns during week leading up to Black Friday in China. presales reached $70m in first 25 minutes, surpassing single day sales from 2018 (INSANE??)
Nike:
In January 2019, Nike released a limited-edition show via livestream on gaming platform Twitch. buzz around securing highly limited-edition shoe drove high rates of engagement + conversions, product soon SOLD OUT
In January 2019, Nike released a limited-edition show via livestream on gaming platform Twitch. buzz around securing highly limited-edition shoe drove high rates of engagement + conversions, product soon SOLD OUT
2. AR/VR SHOPPING: FROM HYPE TO CONVENIENCE
-100mm will shop AR/VR by 2022 according to 2018 Gartner Survey
-tactic for time pressed millennials, allows them to try on items while their on the go
-100mm will shop AR/VR by 2022 according to 2018 Gartner Survey
-tactic for time pressed millennials, allows them to try on items while their on the go
The Current Challenge: New Optimists feel like in-store shopping is a chore, and don't want to dedicate time to it
The Opportunity: AR/VR enables New Optimists to test products conveniently: group graviates towards peer feedback when purchasing, retailers make exp shareable
The Opportunity: AR/VR enables New Optimists to test products conveniently: group graviates towards peer feedback when purchasing, retailers make exp shareable
CASE STUDIES:
FlipFit: enables users to receive "fitting room in their lviing room" get advice from friends, get paid to give tips through social commerce app (wild af)
https://www.flipfit.com/
FlipFit: enables users to receive "fitting room in their lviing room" get advice from friends, get paid to give tips through social commerce app (wild af)
https://www.flipfit.com/
Carlings: company's first digital-only clothing collection, launced a t-shirt with a logo that triggers designs to appear via AR fitters on IG when it is detected https://carlings.com/no
AliExpress (shoutout): stores openeing in Madrid, using smart mirrors to scan customers bodies. Shoppers at the store can browse a catalogue, virtually try on clothes + accessories
3. ON DEMAND EVOLUTION
Current Challenge: app-ordering still feels clunky for consumers in this grouping, who demand speed-to-purchase with mobileo rders
The Opportunity: Streamline UX for in-app ordering
Current Challenge: app-ordering still feels clunky for consumers in this grouping, who demand speed-to-purchase with mobileo rders
The Opportunity: Streamline UX for in-app ordering
CASE STUDIES
Checkers: South African Supermarket, launches an app called Sixty60, qhich aims for shoppers to order groceries in 60 seconds and delivery in 60 mns.
https://www.checkers.co.za/
Checkers: South African Supermarket, launches an app called Sixty60, qhich aims for shoppers to order groceries in 60 seconds and delivery in 60 mns.
https://www.checkers.co.za/
4. THE POWER ( AND SAVINGS ) OF THE PACK
Opportunity: retailers and brands that embrace New Optimist's sense of giving and gifting mindset are set to win with this cohort
Opportunity: retailers and brands that embrace New Optimist's sense of giving and gifting mindset are set to win with this cohort
Peddler: A group buying offers app on a shopping platform, shoppers can initiate or join a team to receive a discount. The group can get up to 55% savings.
( no link )
( no link )
Six Ways To Win
1. Simplicity Matters
2. Living in Livestream
3. On-Demand Evolution
4. Unified Communications
5. AR/VR Transitions To Convenience
6. The Power (And Savings) Of The Pack
1. Simplicity Matters
2. Living in Livestream
3. On-Demand Evolution
4. Unified Communications
5. AR/VR Transitions To Convenience
6. The Power (And Savings) Of The Pack
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