Sweeden’s 7-day average of Covid deaths is now 3. Italy is 12.

Sweden’s has 544 deaths per million. Italy is 579.

Sweeden had only a slowdown. Italy had a draconian lockdown.

Covid-19 has a mind of its own.

Adapt only reasonable measures that keep society going.

Anyone looking at covid’s deaths and policies and claims to have the formula how to mitigate it, is dishonest or agenda-driven.

In addition to Italy vs. Sweeden, there is Belgium. They had a steep lockdown. Their 7-day average death is now 2 but their death-to-million is 845!

Just because you took a stance in March, does not mean you can’t change it by June/July in the face of so much data/outcomes about Coronavirus. Finalnd locked down and had low deaths? Cool. Belgium, Spain, Italy had steep lockdowns but have of the highest deaths-per-mill in EU.

In March you said lockdowns of 14 days are to flatten the curve to spread out cases. It was not a tool to cut the total number of cases. Ok. Then we opened abit which you opposed. Then we had protests which you welcomed. Now cases are rising and you act shocked. Why? We knew that

opening will cause cases to rise becasue lockdowns were just a tactic to slow the spread so that the medical field is not overrun and is better prepared. Did u up capacity the last 4 months? Do u have better protocols? No? Oh. The lockdowns were to get these things in order!

In March, the thinking was that

15% cases need the hospital

+ 3% need the ICU

1% to 3.4% cases will die.

We now know that these assumption were way off to the dark side (as my pinned thread mid-March shows) so you can’t look at the need for lockdowns the way you did in March.

I don’t want to get too numbery now because people tune out, but here is a math in 1 tweet:

Cuomo expected that 1 million cases at Apex in early April will lead to a need of 30K+ ICU beds.

Per antibodies tests, NY had 1.6 million cases early April but ICU peak was only 5,100!