1/ a $TSLA $TSLAQ thread

Let’s just put it all together, once and for all. I am going to start with some background facts. Then you can pop a red pill if you want and join down the rabbit hole.

Facts: a) Q3-18 A/R balance up by $500mm, 4 times they explained, still a fail
2/ b) @PlainSite performed an exhaustive analysis of global registrations vs. deliveries/sales, and found that starting in Q3-18, many cars were never registered. Analysis found here. https://twitter.com/plainsite/status/1255876361513611264
3/ c) CEO known to socialize with El Chapo’s wife
d) CEO knows to take extraordinary number of short r/t private plane flights to Brownsville and Mexico
e) 4 days ago, CDAN revealed their blind item stating the below. You can argue with his credibility, but he did reveal it
4/ So those are all facts. Other facts weaved in as we go, but here we go.

Late Q3-18 delivery miss imminent, CEO crafts a deal to “sell” 10k cars to various different related entities, split up to avoid the 10% A/R disclosure. Whoever the counterparty was did not have to pay
5/ Cars not immediately delivered or registered.Deepak, CFO, goes along as CEO says it will all be cleared up by 12/31. Plan is to sell these cars normally in Q4, pay the A/R back, and all is good. But as these things go, borrowing from future is always ugly when future arrives.
6/ Q4 arrives and it sure would be nice to count those Q3 cars in Q4 and not retire the A/R for previously booked sales.The bar goes up and CEO kicks the can down the road (of course).Comes up with another plan. Side note,when Deepak hears that this not ending he abruptly resigns
7/ CEO takes trip to Mex in Nov 2018 (fact). Hatches a brilliantly illegal Marty Byrde scheme to launder cartel $ via an evergreen warehouse facility of fake sales when needed. However, their first $500mm can whittle down the bloated A/R. In essence they become the Q3 buyer
8/ And the beautiful thing is they don't want the cars, just clean cash back. Good thing because we sold those cars in Q4! This is perfect. So all of a sudden we have the chance to launder money and reduce the A/R balance and don't have to deliver cars that don’t exist.
9/ So how does work if you aren't following. First of all, over time, not immediately. Q1-2019, CEO starts to bring in cash, let's say in $100mm increments. Not inconceivable that over a quarter of 20 trips that $500mm could be moved. Mexico->Brownsville->HHR.
10/ Maybe let’s back up on acctg for a $50k car. Q3-18. A/R $50k, $40 A/P (for COGS), $10 Prof/Eqty. Car off books, sitting in a desert. Q4 sell that car for cash but book as new sale. (orig plan was to repay A/R). But book rev, so cash $50, $40 some A/P for fake COGS, $10 prof
10/ Back to the story. Cartel cash arrives after orig. car was sold for the 2nd time. $50k cash pays down A/R and $40k pays down the fake COGS A/P..such $40k heading right back to the cartel, obviously through entities. No car needed. T keeps $10k representing prof on the Q3 car
11/ Now if we bring in $500mm per quarter, we can manage what goes against old (Q3 cars) and what represents new fake sales. And we manage over time, obviously the Q3-18 “cars” are all paid for. We ebb and flow as as the business needs and the cash can be transported.
12/ rinse repeat every quarter, which is why A/R has really not gone down. I guess if they ever had a monster quarter they would retire more old fake A/R vs sell new fake cars, and the balance would decline. Every $ that comes in as cash however represents a $ of fake rev.
13/ that’s it, a delivery/sales boosting and smoothing facility supported by crusty hundred dollar bills from Mexico. shoot holes as you see fit. all just for amusement and discussion. h/t to @PlainSite, @entylawyer, and @evdefender for some of the storyline.
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