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Our latest poll reveals that 8% of Trump’s 2016 voters across the key states of AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA and WI now say they will support Biden in 2020.
Not great news for a guy who won by a razor-thin margin of less than 80,000 votes spread out across just three states! (2/x)
Not great news for a guy who won by a razor-thin margin of less than 80,000 votes spread out across just three states! (2/x)
So what do we mean when we say “new Biden voters”?
Just so we’re clear: these are voters who now say they plan to vote for Joe Biden, but who say they did not support him two months ago.
These recent converts account for roughly 7% of all battleground voters. (3/x)
Just so we’re clear: these are voters who now say they plan to vote for Joe Biden, but who say they did not support him two months ago.
These recent converts account for roughly 7% of all battleground voters. (3/x)
Around 2/3 of these new Biden voters are Democrats who are coalescing around our party’s nominee. More than half of those folks supported another candidate in the presidential primary, but are now uniting behind Biden to defeat Trump. (4/x)
But base consolidation doesn’t tell the whole story! New Biden voters are also crossing over from the middle — and even the right: 17% identify as independents, while 19% call themselves Republicans. (5/x)
And that’s not all: 21% of recent Biden converts who voted in 2016 say they voted for Trump, while 22% report they supported his re-election as recently as two months ago. (6/x)
So what’s driving these voters toward Biden? Two issues: Trump’s disastrous mishandling of the coronavirus crisis and his shameful response to the ongoing protests against police brutality and systemic racism. (7/x)
And these voters overwhelmingly see Joe Biden as the answer to Trump’s failures on these important issues. That’s bad news for the current Commander-in-Chief. (8/x)
More bad news for Trump? A huge number of these recent Biden converts seem to have written him off completely. Only 20% say there’s a chance they will still consider voting for Trump. (9/x)
Let’s be clear: this election is far from over. It’s crucial for Democrats to keep our foot on the gas and drive messages that keep these voters in our column between now and November. (10/x)
So what messages resonate most with these new Biden voters? Well, it’s not particularly complicated: all roads lead back to Trump’s failed leadership. (11/x)
Democrats must continue to drive messages about Trump’s failure to lead, unwillingness to listen to experts and repeated refusal to put the American people first.
These themes can be successful applied to a variety of issues! Like the coronavirus… (12/x)
These themes can be successful applied to a variety of issues! Like the coronavirus… (12/x)
…and even health care and taxes. When we frame the election as a referendum on Trump’s failed leadership, the voters respond.
They’re ready for steady, competent leadership. They’re ready for Joe Biden. (13/x)
They’re ready for steady, competent leadership. They’re ready for Joe Biden. (13/x)
Want more insights about these new Biden voters? Check out our new battleground poll memo here: (14/14) https://priorities.org/memos/battleground-poll-diving-deep-on-joe-bidens-newest-supporters/">https://priorities.org/memos/bat...
