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New #ElectionTwitter map Thursday:
Oklahoma has historically been a competitive state, electing both Ds and Rs. This is due to settlement patterns, with SE Oklahoma/Little Dixie being settled by southerners and the rest of the state having a more Great Plains vibe.
Oklahoma has historically been a competitive state, electing both Ds and Rs. This is due to settlement patterns, with SE Oklahoma/Little Dixie being settled by southerners and the rest of the state having a more Great Plains vibe.
Adding to this is the fact that Oklahoma was once Indian Territory, where many Native American tribes were forcibly relocated by the US Government. Historically, many of these tribal nations were strongly Democratic-leaning as they opposed the Union in the Civil War.
In honor of the recent SCOTUS McGirt ruling, I present the map of the 2004 Senate race between former 2nd District Rep. Tom Coburn (R) and incumbent 2nd District Rep. Brad Carson (D). Both are from eastern OK, where the NA population is highest, and Carson himself is Cherokee.
From this map, we can see breakdown by Congressional District, as well as Tribal Nation, per the SCOTUS ruling these likely were never explicitly disestablished by Congress. Coburn was a far-right fiscal conservative, and Carson a more traditional conservative OK Dem.
Coburn's did best in the Panhandle and the ancestrally R western part of the stat. Carson ran well along the Red River in the south/Little Dixie. He only carried OK-02, his current district, and got blown out in OK-01 (Tulsa) and OK-05 (OKC). The cities were what turned OK R.
Still, though, Carson remained at just below 40% in most of the state's congressional districts, which would be unthinkable today. Hillary in 2016 got blown out everywhere and Edmondson's 2018 Governor run only netted him OK-05, another sign of the changing coalitions.
By Tribal Nation, the breakdown is interesting. Carson did worst in the now newly reaffirmed Creek Nation due to Tulsa. Heavily R cities/exurbs powered Coburn to victory in 4/5 Nations, with Carson only winning Choctaw Country 53-42. (SE OK was the most D-leaning part of OK then)
Coburn went on to serve until 2015 when James Lankford replaced him. Brad Carson briefly left politics, when @DanBorenFUB replaced him in OK-02. In 2015, Carson was confirmed as Obama's Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness and now teaches public policy at UVA.
Coburn died in March of this year, after a long career of staunch fiscal/social conservatism. With him went the memory of competitive rural Oklahoma. Now the path to a Dem statewide victory runs through cities and this map is impossible.
Native American voters are proving more elusive for OK, as many are highly conservative-leaning and often don't vote at the same rates as OK whites. This map marks the last time we will see blue Little Dixie for the foreseeable future. I hope you like it, discuss your thoughts.
