You hear this a lot about a Trump EC advantage among politicos. I don't think that's accurate for this election cycle. @realdonaldtrump needs 3 things for said advantage: dominant margin among white voters; high WWC share of total electorate; strong 3rd party presence. https://twitter.com/danpfeiffer/status/1283781356367929345

1. Trump isn't dominant among white voters. Biden has an advantage among college educated whites which is trimming that margin. Trump was +20 among whites in '16. He's tracking to +10 this year (some polls are more bullish on Biden among whites, but +10 seems right).

Unlike 2016, or even 2018, the Dem advantage among college educated whites extends to deep red states where Biden isn't even competing. You can see it in polls of MT, MO, TN where Trump's margins are half of what they were in 2016. That's white college voters voting Dem.

In 2016, it was Trump's advantage over WWC that crystallized nationally. Even red counties in blue states were voting at record high margins for Trump. Since 2016, it has been suburban counties which have voted in large numbers for Dems. That trend is accelerating in 2020.

2. The WWC share of the electorate is 2-3 points lower than 2016. Trump's margins in that demo have also been narrowed. Per Quinnipiac, Biden is -13 among non-college whites. HRC was -37. That's more stark than other polling, but the trend is clear.

3. There is no major 3rd party candidate on the ballot. 'Ye' is a 'no'. Dems lost more of their vote to 3rd parties than the GOP gained in key battlegrounds. In PA, for example, Trump was +1 over Romney, but Ds dropped -5 (similar thing happened in the recent UK election).

Without a 3rd party candidate, and with Trump being an unpopular incumbent whose record and character are viewed negatively, it's Biden who is more likely to grab those undecided voters and 2016 3rd party voters, not Trump.

In most elections, the EC tends to overstate the winner's PV margin. You see it with Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and Obama. The indicators this year point to Biden winning a higher share of the EC than the PV b/c his coalition is balanced & there's no 3rd party vote.

Lastly, there is no universe where Biden & Dems are this competitive among white voters & Dems don't romp to a win. There will not be a major ticket split except perhaps for some popular incumbents. In this day & age, however, incumbents bucking the tide is harder to do.

The dynamic of 2020 is a continuation of the 2018 trend, but amplified over a more favorable map and climate for Dems. The analogy is to 2006-2008, where Dem wins in 2006 extended into 2008 as people tuned out Bush and looked to the future as the economy & FP slowly fell apart.

Here, Trump has sealed his own fate by refusing to deal w/the virus. Premature opening is stalling out the economic rebound and is crushing the public health system. We will have over 2 million active #coronavirus cases in the system amidst a recession by Aug 1.

We've never experienced such a confluence of bad events before in the history of the US. Our system can't handle it and there is no legislative fix that will enable Trump to credibly claim improvement in just 2 months before people start voting.