1) Short term $TSLA is all about potential Q2 profit & S&P500 inclusion which can have significant long term implications for Tesla's shareholder base and valuation.
But more important for Tesla's fundamentals and long term success is:
What will Tesla reveal on battery day?
2) Short answer with very large error bars despite the specific predictions:
I think Tesla will announce its Kato road facility in Fremont has started production of 40mm-70mm cells with +25% volumetric energy density and 3.6x volume vs 21-70 cells, at 80-85Wh per cell.
3) At pack level I expect 30% volumetric energy density improvement using a cell to pack design (no modules). So a ~104KWh pack could fit into the same volume as the current ~80KWh LR Model 3 packs.
4) Kato road will install a single "Roadrunner" cell line targeting 400k cells per day (= GF1 Panasonic cells per line per day) or ~12GWh per year (vs 2.7GWh per cell line at GF1). Comfortably deliverable with the 38 trucks per day Tesla disclosed in its environmental docs.
5) Kato road will likely benefit from ~4-5x reduced footprint (in square metres) and labour hours per GWh capacity, much lower capex vs GF1 cells and pack costs significantly below $100/kwh.
6) Reaching target production level and cost is likely to take a long time and will take make upgrades of the production line design to overcome bottlenecks.
7) I expect almost full vertical integration at the facility starting from cathode powder mixing.
Tesla has disclosed it expects 170 manufacturing staff working at any given time, with 3 shifts in total.
Across the two Kato road buildings total footprint is 21,204 sqm.
8) What will the cells be used for and what about Panasonic/LG/CATL?
I think Tesla will likely use the first Roadrunner cells for Plaid Model S in Q4. It might aim for Kato road cells to eventually go into all S/X & Roadrunner cars (S/X packs are already made at Fremont).
9) Panasonic’s 8GWh 18-650 Japan factory could be converted into 21-70 format and exported to GF1 to support the Model Y ramp.
Tesla may import LG cells to GF1 for energy products and Semi and convert all 13 Panasonic lines to 21-70 cells for 3/Y (2 lines are normally energy).
10) In China I expect Tesla will use short term deals from CATL to produce SR+ Model 3 and Model Y, and LG for LR 3 and Y. Tesla may end its CATL contract once it has built Roadrunner lines in GF3.
11) I expect GF4 and GF5 to be fully supplied by Roadrunner cells from the start, but with backup plans to buy additional cells from CATL/LG or Panasonic if Tesla hit production ramp bottlenecks.
12) I expect Tesla to announce a roadmap to reach 2TWh of annual in-house battery cell+module+pack production capacity by 2030. Enough for ~20 million annual EV sales and ~750GWH annual stationary battery storage sales.
13) Prior January thread on battery day and some of the battery tech going into Tesla's Roadrunner cells https://twitter.com/ReflexFunds/status/1222842920983834625?s=20
14) Prior thread on Tesla's Maxwell tech: https://twitter.com/ReflexFunds/status/1219586550188650496?s=20
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