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I would like to model out the argument that we should just "let the virus burn through the young and get to herd immunity". And I would like to do it with Utah.
I will use a little thing I like to call...MATH.
A (long, detailed) thread:
I will use a little thing I like to call...MATH.
A (long, detailed) thread:
First off - my qualifications (because I am a lady person and people like to think that means I "cannot MATH")
* I have a Master's Degree from Penn State in Spatial Analytics. I used Epidemiological models for my thesis.
* I have a Master's Degree from Penn State in Spatial Analytics. I used Epidemiological models for my thesis.
* I am not, however, a medical Dr. or public health professional, officially. So for portions of this analysis that rely on their expertise, I happily link to them.
* My career has covered international, state, and federal; public and private; research and commercial work.
* My career has covered international, state, and federal; public and private; research and commercial work.
* The last four months of my career have been primarily focused on developing dashboards and apps to help all of those ^^ entities track COVID-19.
In other words, I'm invested in this.
In other words, I'm invested in this.
SO! To reach herd immunity,typically the *usual* goal is 70-90% of the population. https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html
A recent Atlantic article (linked below) makes an argument that it very, very, very, magically, if the stars aligned could maybe be 20-60%.
I'm going to use 60% here because it's star-eyed optimistic but not into possibly-crazy territory. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/
I'm going to use 60% here because it's star-eyed optimistic but not into possibly-crazy territory. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/
Utah's population is 3,282,120.
60% of that is 1,969,272.
That many would still need to get the virus, survive, *and maintain* immunity.
60% of that is 1,969,272.
That many would still need to get the virus, survive, *and maintain* immunity.
***BIG ASSUMPTION HERE*** that immunity after getting the virus actually sticks around for a long time. We're really not so sure at all (see link). https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983
Coronavirus is not, shall we say, "famous" for imparting any sort of long-term immunity. (Coronaviruses cause many colds, for context).
But, for the sake of the willfully ignorant, let's rather illogically assume that once you get COVID-19 and survive, you are immune for life!
But, for the sake of the willfully ignorant, let's rather illogically assume that once you get COVID-19 and survive, you are immune for life!
(This is absolutely not what science is leaning toward. Just to be clear. But I want to make this the mostest bestest pixie-dream analysis.)
Currently: Utah has had 30,891 confirmed cases.
18,593 of which are considered "recovered" (aka they didn't die and it's been 3 weeks since their diagnosis).
18,593 of which are considered "recovered" (aka they didn't die and it's been 3 weeks since their diagnosis).
Because Utah was very good at testing early on, an antibody study in late May and early June (HERO Project) determined that we have been catching approximately 1 in 3 of all "real-world" cases out there. (That is impressive.)
So 18,593 recovered x 3 = 55,779 who are "immune" now
So 18,593 recovered x 3 = 55,779 who are "immune" now
There's a chance that number could be slightly higher, but I don't have any solid data to work with - it's be speculation. So I go with what we know.
1,969,272 (60% total pop) - 55,779 =
1,913,493 more people need to get and survive COVID-19 to reach herd immunity.
1,913,493 more people need to get and survive COVID-19 to reach herd immunity.
Right now Utah has one of the lowest Case Fatality Rates (CFR's) in the country. Of the cases we have confirmed, 0.8% die.
Compare that to NYC, with the best testing rate in the country, which has a 8% CFR.
Or Louisiana, with the next best testing rate and 4.1% CFR.
Compare that to NYC, with the best testing rate in the country, which has a 8% CFR.
Or Louisiana, with the next best testing rate and 4.1% CFR.
Why does Utah have such a low CFR so far?
I don't know. I look forward to reading the many studies that will inevitably come out about this. Point is - for whatever reason - the population in Utah currently has a low COVID-19 fatality rate.
I don't know. I look forward to reading the many studies that will inevitably come out about this. Point is - for whatever reason - the population in Utah currently has a low COVID-19 fatality rate.
Maybe it's on delay and will rise when (not if) the virus reaches our most vulnerable? Maybe it's simply because we have a younger/healthier population? Again, not sure. I just have the number. But wanted to point out that it's an outlier in the US.
BUT that CFR does not account for the x3 multiplier we should include due to our antibody study. So, throw that in and we get an "adjusted CFR" of 0.25% to try and get it more "real world".
Almost to the end!
1,913,493 more people need to get Covid and survive and become "immune" x 0.0025 (0.25% CFR) =
***4784 people will die*** before we would reach 60% which may possibly be enough for herd immunity which most likely is not long-term.
Conservatively, optimistically modeling.
***4784 people will die*** before we would reach 60% which may possibly be enough for herd immunity which most likely is not long-term.
Conservatively, optimistically modeling.
This, of course, does not take into account how many people will have mild to very serious long-term health issues if they do survive.
There's a lot of data out there about this. But no "easy numbers" so I don't include them. Please go educate yourselves about it though!
There's a lot of data out there about this. But no "easy numbers" so I don't include them. Please go educate yourselves about it though!
To help contextualize 4,784 dead.
The leading cause of death in Utah is cardiovascular disease. In 2018, it killed "only" *3,479 people*.
The leading cause of death in Utah is cardiovascular disease. In 2018, it killed "only" *3,479 people*.
For those who like to say COVID-19 is "like the Flu"...
In 2017 and 2018 the number of people in Utah killed by the Flu were 333 and 353, respectively.
(Find all Utah Mortality stats here: https://ibis.health.utah.gov/ibisph-view/query/selection/mort/MortSelection.html)
In 2017 and 2018 the number of people in Utah killed by the Flu were 333 and 353, respectively.
(Find all Utah Mortality stats here: https://ibis.health.utah.gov/ibisph-view/query/selection/mort/MortSelection.html)
The total number of deaths in Utah in 2018 was: 18,039.
To "reach herd immunity"*, this would mean a *27%* increase in yearly mortality.
To "reach herd immunity"*, this would mean a *27%* increase in yearly mortality.
*Again...I'm not saying it's even actually possible. I'm not aware of any disease we know of where we have reached herd immunity without a vaccine campaign.
This is just for those who really want to argue it is - this is what the price "would be".
This is just for those who really want to argue it is - this is what the price "would be".
Just had a thought:
If you want to run this same analysis for your own state you can follow the math above but you'll need the following variables:
1. Total Population
2. Total number of "recovered" cases thus far
If you want to run this same analysis for your own state you can follow the math above but you'll need the following variables:
1. Total Population
2. Total number of "recovered" cases thus far
3. Multiplier from recent antibody study in your area to estimate how many cases have not been diagnosed. (If it helps, the median multiplier across most recent studies throughout the USA is 10. This multiplier is being used in multiple risk assessment studies)
4. Current Case Fatality Ratio (accidentally called it Rate above^^) for your state. Many places to find this. Feel free to use this liked app. You choose state from top-right drop-down and the CFR will update on the left.
https://gisi.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/d821bc8908bb44cca2df98199ca4037a
https://gisi.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/d821bc8908bb44cca2df98199ca4037a
And, as always, thank you for overlooking my many typos.
