1) What’s happening with the surge in violent crime in NYC and elsewhere? “Criminologists” interviewed by CNN can’t quite put a finger on what’s causing it. As far as I’m concerned, you don’t need to be a PhD nor a slide rule to figure it out.

2) What we do need is honesty from anyone, especially academics when interviewed about the surge in violence. That honesty has to happen even if it goes against everything you’ve been taught and learned.

3) One criminologist said it was “reasonably clear” that the spike was due to COVID restrictions. Really? I know the mayor and other politicians like to use this excuse, but we are not seeing violence surge across the board in every community.

4) If we want to take an academic approach to why crime is surging, that’s fine. Let’s take a hard look at Routine Activity Theory (RAT) written by Cohen and Felton (1979). They stated that crime occurs when three (3) elements come together:

5) 1. A motivated offender. Who could be more motivated at this time than a criminal? No bail, no jail, selective prosecution by DAs, and in NYC, no more anti-crime. All forms of deterrence have been eliminated.

6) 2. A Suitable Target. This is one thing we can blame COVID on - everyone is outside-plenty of opportunities. I can’t argue with that point.

7) 3. The absence of a Capable Guardian. Ahhh! Here is where we are. The police have been labeled, bashed, marginalized, and politicized into oblivion. However, the cops matter in keeping crime under control-no matter how much you may dislike them.

8) In NYC, they are about to pass an awful Use of Force Bill, which has become known as the “Diaphragm Bill.” Bad policy in NYC and elsewhere could be a factor too. This bill is so bad, that the NYSP reps have asked out of law enforcement within the city-limits.

9) So academics when the media asks for reasons and you can’t utter any of these as potential deleterious causes, than maybe you need to ask yourself why?

10) For a lack of a better analogy, the fox is in the hen house.

11) I started tracking violence in NYC last September. By the first week in October, Murder was trending up. It was off to the races from there. https://twitter.com/joegiacalone/status/1183571241258622977?s=21 https://twitter.com/joegiacalone/status/1183571241258622977

During the middle of Winter (February) and during the COVID lockdown, shootings were up 21.3% YTD-So, I don’t know how much more we can blame the spike on violence on relaxing COVD restrictions. It has to be something else
https://twitter.com/joegiacalone/status/1230477949968756737?s=21 https://twitter.com/joegiacalone/status/1230477949968756737