1) I do not think "polls" were a major (perhaps not even a minor) factor in the campaign shakeup. Certainly the campaign knows they aren't real, any more than the Cankles +14 polls in 2016 were real.

2) Certainly the campaign knows that the GOP has outregistered the . . .
2) contd . . . DemoKKKrats in FL, NC, IA, NH, PA, NM, and NV since 2016. Some of these numbers were huge (100,000 in FL, 82,000 in NC, 13,000 in NV, 10,000 in NM, 85,000 in PA).

3) Also the campaign knows that the black vote has massively trended away from Demented Perv Biteme.
4) Even their own rotten polls show Biteme at 78% black support (Cankles LOST with 88%) in 2016.

5) By now, certainly they must suspect the 18-24 year old vote is going to be down massively. Given that the delays in reopening continue, that # promises only to grow.
6) Rather, I think that the Tulsa event showed something---and it was NOT "Parscale's incompetence." Rather, I think it demonstrated that the entire strategy for 2020 has been upended. Whether they can admit it or not, the rallies will be greatly curtailed.
7) I'm betting they also PLAN on having Twit ban the President before the election, say, in August.

8) The China Virus guvs' idiotic lockdowns will make face to face door knocking very hard.

9) In short, I think Team Trump realized that the plan they had in place . . .
9) contd . . . for three years just went out the window.

10) Improvise, adapt, overcome.

11) I do NOT think they have the 2020 "message" or the 2020 plan yet.
12) Course, neither does Demented Perv Biteme, so they're even. (Again, NO I do not believe polls).

13) Bill Stepien accomplished a remarkable task of getting Christie elected in gov in a blue state, twice. However, even the association with CC concerns me.
14) I also am concerned about the presence of Tokyo Karl Rove on the staff.

15) However, let's recall that in 2016 at this time, Trump was already into the SECOND of FIVE campaign managers. He had just fired Lewandowski. Manafort was brought in for one job: get the delegates.
16) Manafort was gone by early August, replaced by the "troika" of Bannon, Conway, and Parscale. But don't forget a key member/advisor was always Kushner, who ran the campaign on a shoestring.

17) I suspect Stepien is there as a mid-inning reliever for a very specific reason.
18) It is probably to keep things stable while Team Trump redefines its whole strategy and MESSAGE.

19) "Why don't that have that message already?"

20) Easy. Did any of you in January think we'd have half the country locked down and major riots in the big cities?
21) I submit to you that not only did NO ONE know that at the time, but even NOW, it still isn't clear where these winds take us.

22) My hunch has been that Team Trump is waiting for two things to happen: first, ALL citizens to tire of the lockdowns & demand a return to normal.
23) As we get closer to school, you can bet even the Karens will begin to get antsy on this. I see this now with some of our friends. Radical mask-wearing, glove-wearing Karens are getting cabin fever.

24) Second, Trump is waiting for the critical mass of blue city citizens . .
24) contd . . . to demand help over the objections of their tyrants. Trump doesn't need the MAYORS or GOVERNORS if---big if---he has the citizens of the cities largely behind him. The mayors are most definitely helpful, but nothing will get Bettlejuice in Chicago or
24) contd . . . Bill DiBloodsucker in NY on board. Nothing. The people however, are getting there. Especially blacks and lower income whites who can't escape. Trump already has some of the business people behind him.
25) As for the govs, it's tricky because for every Nipplepin Venthoarder in NY you have an Abbott or Douchey. At the very least, Trump needs them on board in the fall. I think he will be careful with the govs, but ruthless with the mayors. This would allow the govs themselves. ..
25) contd . . . to, if necessary, run against say the mayor of Houston & Phoenix. However, in both the case of TX and AZ, the govs aren't up for reelection this year.

26) SO . . .
27) FWIW I predict a couple of things. First, I think maybe around mid-August we will see the Mariano Rivera (s) come in. Before then, I expect Team Trump will use this in-between time to refine the message.

If things don't improve substantially with the lockdowns they . . .
27) contd . . . will take one tack; if they do, another.

28) But the obvious strategy it seems is to combine the injustice of the lockdowns with the injustice of riots against ordinary citizens with the injustice of the Deep State in DC.

It's the same message, three ways.
29) I think there are important concessions to the black community that are reasonable, such as fed support for body cams on all police---but STAND FIRM ON NO DEFUND, which is a winner with black and white communities---and an end to no-knock warrants.
30) Lastly, I think the lawlessness can be easily tied to VOTE FRAUD, and courtesy of "Freeper" Agamemnon, here are some ideas:

*an E.O. requiring Voter ID for Federal Elections. There’s the instant end to all the Mail-in ballot non-sense.
*Allow driver's license with absentees
*Next, post at least one armed National Guard member in full gear at every polling place in the US and have an ICE Agent on call. Protection of all voters is therefore assured. (e.g., No more Blank Panthers with clubs at Philadelphia polling places)
*Issuing such an E.O. like this would cause Dems to judge shop and impose an injunction, but President Trump would ram it straight up the United States Supreme Court (USSC) on an emergency hearing, due to the shortness of time before the election.
*Next, the President should declare that all polling places involved in Federal elections are surrogate Federal facilities, for the time of polling, because they are handling Federal documentation for a Federal election, where Federal Electors are selected per Article 12.
An official government issued ID will be required to enter the surrogate Federal facility for the time that ballots remain at the polling location. This is literally Voter ID. After the polls close, the ballots are remanded to Federal custody & ferried to a Federally secured . .
location accompanied by the National Guard member(s) already stationed at the polling place.

It would seem that the USSC would have to acknowledge that entry to the USSC requires a Federal ID as does entrance to every other Federal Building.
*Could polling places used in Federal Elections be considered to be “occupied” by “department, agency, or instrumentality of the United States,” such as the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division, for instance? . . .
The Civil Rights Division of DOJ is vested with assuring that the voting rights of citizens are upheld & it is the division to which voting right civil rights complaints may be filed. In essence the DOJ would supervise a Federal election as it "deputizes" the polling place.
FINALLY, the development of a "Justice for ALL" theme would unite virtually all wings of Trumpism plus continue to appeal to his growing black support. It would begin to appeal to the Karens, especially as they worry about rioters getting closer to the Burbs.
31) My choice for the "Vision/Message" manager to take over in August is @RichardGrenell. He gets Trump, knows which fights to take and which to avoid. If the structure of the campaign is laid out by then, he would be the kind of general to execute the strategy.
You can follow @LarrySchweikart.
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