Election thread. These are historical stats, not predictions, OK?
Incumbents are 0-for-the-last-5 when trying to get reelected when there has been a recession or 20% drop in an election year. The last to do it was Truman in 1948.
Will voters will blame Trump? @NDR_Research 1/4

Getting more concerned questions about a Biden win.
2H of election years have been stronger when incumbent party wins. The tendency is amplified with Republican presidents. But...2/4

...election year weakness when Republicans have lost has reversed in the post-election year, on average.
Makes you wonder if much of the gyrations are about sentiment and not fundamentals (most of the time). 3/4

Under Democratic presidents, real returns have been higher when there has been a check on their power (at least one chamber Republican controlled).
Caveat: few cases can skew stats. Only Dem pres + split Congress was Obama. 2 big crashes under Rep pres + Dem/split Congress. 4/4