Read on Twitter
Last week, 2.4 million workers applied for unemployment benefits. This is the 17th week in a row that unemployment insurance (UI) claims have been more than twice the *worst* week of the Great Recession. 1/ https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
Of the 2.4 million workers who applied for unemployment benefits last week, 1.5 million applied for regular state UI (not seasonally adjusted), and 0.9 million applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 2/
Many headlines say there were 1.3 million UI claims last week. THAT IS WRONG—it ignores PUA, the federal program for workers who are not eligible for regular UI, like gig workers. It also uses seasonally adjusted data for regular state UI, which is screwy right now. 3/
Before I cover more of the details of today’s UI release, there’s this: the across-the-board $600 increase in weekly unemployment benefits is set to expire *next week.* What are the economics of this? 4/
The work disincentive of the $600 has been massively overblown. First, it ignores the realities of the labor market for working people, who will be unlikely to turn down a permanent job—particularly in a time of extended high unemp—for a temporary boost in benefits. 5/
Further, there are 14 million more unemployed workers than job openings, meaning millions will remain jobless no matter what they do. Cutting off the $600 cannot incentivize people to get jobs that AREN’T THERE. 6/ https://files.epi.org/charts/img/196746-25298.png
Even further, many people can’t go to work right now no matter what, because it’s not safe for them or because they have care responsibilities as a result of the virus. Cutting off the $600 will not incentivize them to get jobs, it will just cause hardship. 7/
The millions who will remain jobless after the $600 is cut off will have no choice but to drastically cut their spending, causing a sharp decline in their living standards, an increase in poverty, and completely unnecessary suffering. 8/
Cutting off the $600 will exacerbate racial inequality. Black communities are suffering more from this pandemic—both physically and economically—as a result of, and in addition to, systemic racism. Black communities will suffer more if the $600 expires. 9/ https://www.epi.org/publication/black-workers-covid/
And letting the $600 expire won’t just hurt recipients and their families, it would hurt millions more. The spending generated by that $600 is supporting over 5 million jobs. That means letting the $600 expire would *cost* more than 5 million jobs. 10/ https://www.epi.org/blog/cutting-off-the-600-boost-to-unemployment-benefits-would-be-both-cruel-and-bad-economics-new-personal-income-data-show-just-how-steep-the-coming-fiscal-cliff-will-be/
If policymakers really are worried about the disincentive effect of the $600, they should address that issue in another way—not cut off the $600, which is far too important. Instead they could, for example, let people keep some of their UI when they go back to work. 11/
And Congress needs to move fast. If they let the extra payments expire and then reinstate them, it will be an unnecessary administrative nightmare for state agencies, and recipients will face a lapse in benefits of 2-4 weeks, (even if benefits are reinstated right away). 12/
This chart shows continuing claims in all programs over time (the latest data are for June 27). Continuing claims are more than 30 million above where they were a year ago. 13/
The latest figure in “other programs” in the chart above is 1.3 million claims. Most of this (0.9 mil) is Pandemic Emergency Unemp Compensation (PEUC). PEUC is the additional 13 weeks of benefits provided by the CARES Act for people who have exhausted regular state benefits. 14/
We can expect the number of people on PEUC to grow a ton as the crisis drags on and more of the more than 17 million people currently on regular state benefits exhaust their regular benefits and move on to PEUC. 15/
The number of workers on STC ticked down in the latest data, after having risen for 14 wks straight. This is bad news. STC is a great program to prevent layoffs but is massively underutilized (there are only 342,666 workers on STC). It should be being used more, not less. 16/
The chart above only covers continuing claims through June 27, but we can combine the most recent data on both continuing claims and initial claims to get a measure of the total number of people “on” unemployment benefits as of July 11th. 17/
DOL numbers indicate that right now, 36.4 million workers are either on unemployment benefits, have been approved and are waiting for benefits, or have applied recently and are waiting to get approved. That is more than one in five workers. 18/
One note about UI and PUA claims: they *should* be completely non-overlapping—that is how DOL has directed state agencies to report them—but some states may be misreporting claims, so there may be some double counting. 19/
Further, some states may be including some back weeks in their continuing claims. 20/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-29/u-s-jobless-claims-figures-inflated-by-states-backlog-clearing
Fun with maps! Want to see how many jobs will be lost in *your* state over the next year if the extra $600 unemployment benefit is allowed to expire? 21/ https://www.epi.org/chart/puc-cutoff-figure-if-the-600-weekly-unemployment-insurance-increase-is-allowed-to-expire-how-many-jobs-will-it-cost-over-the-next-year/
This blog post is more or less this tweet thread in blog-post form. 22/ https://www.epi.org/blog/joblessness-remains-at-historic-levels-the-extra-600-in-ui-benefits-expires-next-week-congress-must-extend-it/
