BREAKING: I just saw the headlines showing initial and continuing jobless claims were down. They weren't. It's all because of seasonal adjustments. Claims are now rising, both initial and continuing.

The seasonal factors for later June and early July UNDERcount the initial claims numbers, whereas they had been overcounted before. Less so for continuing claims. See image

I think we should be alarmed at how much the unadjusted claims numbers increased this week, both initial and continuing claims. The numbers vaulted higher by hundreds of thousands. That tells you the re-opening has stalled economically

IMPORTANT: Unadjusted initial jobless claims have fallen every single week since the week of April 4. This week they leapt higher by 100k. That’s a pretty big deal, if you asked me.