Precisely 75 years ago—to the minute—the first atomic bomb was detonated. This inaugurated a new age for humanity, the Precipice, where we have gained the power to destroy our entire future before the wisdom to ensure we don’t. Gaining that wisdom is the task of our time. 1/7

While most of the existential risk from nuclear weapons arose from the massive arsenals of later years, there was a serious concern from Teller, Fermi, and Oppenheimer that even a single nuclear detonation may ignite the Earth’s entire atmosphere, killing all complex life. 2/7

Though this was thought unlikely, the Manhattan project’s technical report on the possibility could only conclude: ‘the complexity of the argument and the absence of satisfactory experimental foundation makes further work on the subject highly desirable’. 3/7

This possibility was also discovered by the German nuclear programme and escalated all the way to Hitler, who made dark jokes on the subject. 4/7

James Conant, President of Harvard University, took the possibility seriously enough that when the flash at detonation was so much longer and brighter than he expected, he was overcome with dread: 5/7

Of course it did not happen, and we now possess proofs of why a nuclear weapon cannot set off a sustained fusion reaction in the atmosphere. But the Trinity test went ahead without such proofs, and over concerns of key scientists. It was not an auspicious start to this age. 6/7

There is much more about this episode, existential risks more broadly, how we can survive this period, and why it is so important that we do, in my recent book: The Precipice.
https://theprecipice.com  7/7