I stopped tweeting the daily Covid stats in France a week or so ago. Since then various people, including President Emmanuel Macron, have reported a slight resurgence of the epidemic. Other, including the D Mail, are more alarmist. What do the stats show? 1/8

There IS a spread of new cases into areas in the west and south of France which have been little touched until now. Mayenne, a rural department just south of where I live in Calvados, has a worrying flurry of cases. 2/8

Overall, however, if you take stats week by week since France ended lockdown on 2 June, there is little sign of a 2nd wave. Average daily deaths were 22.1 from 8-15 July, compared to 15 a day in previous fortnight. Av.daily cases were 547.28, in line with previous weeks. 3/8

There is, however, some evidence that people are abandoning social distancing as they go on holidays and relax. Hence today’s decision to make masks compulsory in shops and other enclosed public spaces in France from next week – not 1 Aug as Macron originally announced. 4/8

Daily stats are often misleading. Crunching daily figures into weekly blocks for the last 6 weeks since lockdown ended shows…
Week 1 (June 4 to 11), daily average of deaths 40.1. New cases averaged 445.2 a day.
In week 2 (June 11 to 18) deaths averaged 36.71, cases 440. 5/8

.In week 3 (June 18-25), the average daily death rate was 21.28. Cases 386.7 a day.
In week 4 (June 25 – 1 July), 15.57 and 624.4.
In week 5 (1-8 July) 14.8 and 536.28
In week six – ie the last week up to 15 July – 22.4 deaths and 547.28 cases. 6/8

So…there HAS been an increase in deaths in the last week. But not an alarming leap. New cases have always, on average, been well below the govt's projected post lockdown figure of 1,000- 3,000 a day. Daily deaths in care homes have fallen to an average of single figures. 7/8

BUT the virus has not gone away. It is spreading slowly into areas of France which have largely been spared until now. Public complacency is growing. Will the colder autumn weather bring a new surge in cases? 8/8

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