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"Just hang in there a little longer" 
We *must* stop treating the #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 pandemic as if this is something to be endured for a few more weeks.
We're in this for the long-haul, & the sooner we start behaving that way, the better we'll do.
1/19
We *must* stop treating the #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 pandemic as if this is something to be endured for a few more weeks.
We're in this for the long-haul, & the sooner we start behaving that way, the better we'll do.
1/19
This *doesn't* mean we need to be in lockdown 
(or anything like it) long-term.
But it *does* mean we need to be prepared for long-term social distancing
, mask-wearing
, & hand-hygiene 
, as well as a fluctuating state of 'open'.
2/19
(or anything like it) long-term. But it *does* mean we need to be prepared for long-term social distancing
, mask-wearing, & hand-hygiene , as well as a fluctuating state of 'open'. 2/19
Even in countries like S Korea, where full lockdown never happened & where containing spread has been largely successful, multiple 'spikes' 
have happened. We see this in other re-opening countries.
Success depends on being able to effectively contain these increases.
3/19
have happened. We see this in other re-opening countries.Success depends on being able to effectively contain these increases.
3/19
While no one action (barring full lockdown) is likely enough to contain #SARSCoV2, we have found a package of measures that seem to work well:
- general social distancing/density reduction
- hand hygiene
- mask wearing
- #TestTraceIsolate
4/19
- general social distancing/density reduction
- hand hygiene
- mask wearing
- #TestTraceIsolate
4/19
*And* these /generally/ allow us to proceed with a pretty normal life if cases are under control.
This all seems obvious now but *we didn't know this* earlier this year & we should be thankful that such relatively simple measures are *so effective* 
5/19
This all seems obvious now but *we didn't know this* earlier this year
& we should be thankful that such relatively simple measures are *so effective* 5/19
However, when cases jitter 
, some venues & activities seem to be more high-risk for transmission & can't operate as they normally do:
Bars, clubs, & gyms are hard to distance & have high aerosol risk.
Restaurants/museums/etc often need to be at <100% capacity
6/19
, some venues & activities seem to be more high-risk for transmission & can't operate as they normally do:Bars, clubs, & gyms are hard to distance & have high aerosol risk.
Restaurants/museums/etc often need to be at <100% capacity
6/19
Further, things like travel are still restricted 
, & for many people, generally unattractive. Perhaps increasingly un-affordable as well, as the economic implications start to bite. 
A lot of these industries will take a long time to - & some may never - recover.
7/19
, & for many people, generally unattractive. Perhaps increasingly un-affordable as well, as the economic implications start to bite. A lot of these industries will take a long time to - & some may never - recover.
7/19
Currently, in many countries, economic & social packages providing furlough, welfare & job security 
& preventing things like evictions 
& loan default are due to expire at the end of summer... 
But we aren't going to be at 'normal' by then & we shouldn't expect to
8/19
& preventing things like evictions & loan default are due to expire at the end of summer... But we aren't going to be at 'normal' by then & we shouldn't expect to
8/19
Possibly quite the opposite, in fact - as we modelled back in March, there's a real risk of a 'second wave' 
as winter arrives 
(Different 'peak months' for transmission shown)
https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20224
9/19
as winter arrives (Different 'peak months' for transmission shown)
https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20224
9/19
It's important to remember though - this *ISN'T* inevitable! Much of seasonality is behavioural - we stay inside more 
& open windows less 
If prepared, we can counter this with corresponding behavioural changes
- if we are determined to keep them up.
10/19
& open windows less If prepared, we can counter this with corresponding behavioural changes
- if we are determined to keep them up.10/19
While we'd all love for #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 to be in its death-throes (esp in Europe), & think that if we can just hang in a little longer, we'll cross the finish-line into 'normalcy', this thinking prevents us from effectively & adequately preparing for the future.
11/19
11/19
We need to find longer-term ways to preserve our economy *while* making allowances for continued social-distancing 
& moving back-and-forth across 'open/closed lines' 
(& inherently different consumer behaviour based on the perceived risks 
).
12/19
& moving back-and-forth across 'open/closed lines' (& inherently different consumer behaviour based on the perceived risks ). 12/19
We need to support businesses 
& individuals 
whose livelihoods will be affected by *more* months of uncertainty & economic downturn .
A *huge* part of that is keeping cases as low as possible so we can be as open as possible - while reacting quickly to spikes!
13/19
& individuals whose livelihoods will be affected by *more* months of uncertainty & economic downturn .A *huge* part of that is keeping cases as low as possible so we can be as open as possible - while reacting quickly to spikes!
13/19
Another *big* part of this is making the #COVID19 situation safe enough to re-open schools 
Schools *should not open* while it's not safe - but we need to *prioritise* controlling cases & implementing measures so it *is* safe 
14/19
Schools *should not open* while it's not safe
- but we need to *prioritise* controlling cases & implementing measures so it *is* safe 14/19
I have big concerns about the long-term impact on children not getting access to in-person education & social interaction
I also have big concerns about the impact this is having on women
who primarily are responsible for home-schooling, impacting their careers 
15/19
I also have big concerns about the impact this is having on women
who primarily are responsible for home-schooling, impacting their careers 15/19
Neither of these things are good for the economy, especially in the longer-term - but I would also hope that educating our children is a social good outside of economic ramifications 
.
Clearly, many ppl unemployed/evicted is also bad news economically & socially
16/19
- but I would also hope that educating our children is a social good outside of economic ramifications .Clearly, many ppl unemployed/evicted is also bad news economically & socially
16/19
And we *all* need to be prepared for more masks, more low-density indoors, & more things not quite operating at 'normal' level 
"Inconveniences" that will save lives *and* keep things as open as possible.
17/19
, more low-density indoors, & more things not quite operating at 'normal' level "Inconveniences" that will save lives *and* keep things as open as possible.
17/19
We similarly *must* start re-thinking how our society & economy works 
in the medium - to long-term to protect & preserve businesses 
(esp small ones) & individuals 
who will continue to be hard-hit.
18/19
in the medium - to long-term to protect & preserve businesses (esp small ones) & individuals who will continue to be hard-hit. 18/19
& saving livelihoods 
