Read on Twitter
"Just hang in there a little longer" 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤞🏻" title="Crossed fingers (heller Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Crossed fingers (heller Hautton)">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😖" title="Verblüfftes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Verblüfftes Gesicht">
We *must* stop treating the #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 pandemic as if this is something to be endured for a few more weeks.https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🗓️" title="Spiralkalenderblatt" aria-label="Emoji: Spiralkalenderblatt">
We& #39;re in this for the long-haul, & the sooner we start behaving that way, the better we& #39;ll do.
1/19
We *must* stop treating the #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 pandemic as if this is something to be endured for a few more weeks.
We& #39;re in this for the long-haul, & the sooner we start behaving that way, the better we& #39;ll do.
1/19
This *doesn& #39;t* mean we need to be in lockdown https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔐" title="Geschlossenes Schloss mit Schlüssel" aria-label="Emoji: Geschlossenes Schloss mit Schlüssel"> (or anything like it) long-term.
But it *does* mean we need to be prepared for long-term social distancinghttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧍🏾" title="Stehende Person (durchschnittlich dunkler Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Stehende Person (durchschnittlich dunkler Hautton)">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="↔️" title="Links-rechts-Pfeil" aria-label="Emoji: Links-rechts-Pfeil">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧍🏻" title="Stehende Person (heller Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Stehende Person (heller Hautton)">, mask-wearinghttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😷" title="Gesicht mit Mundschutz" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Mundschutz">, & hand-hygiene https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧼" title="Soap" aria-label="Emoji: Soap">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👏🏻" title="Applaus-Zeichen (heller Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Applaus-Zeichen (heller Hautton)">, as well as a fluctuating state of & #39;open& #39;.
2/19
But it *does* mean we need to be prepared for long-term social distancing
2/19
Even in countries like S Korea, where full lockdown never happened & where containing spread has been largely successful, multiple & #39;spikes& #39; https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend"> have happened. We see this in other re-opening countries.
Success depends on being able to effectively contain these increases.
3/19
Success depends on being able to effectively contain these increases.
3/19
While no one action (barring full lockdown) is likely enough to contain #SARSCoV2, we have found a package of measures that seem to work well:
- general social distancing/density reductionhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧍🏾" title="Stehende Person (durchschnittlich dunkler Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Stehende Person (durchschnittlich dunkler Hautton)">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="↔️" title="Links-rechts-Pfeil" aria-label="Emoji: Links-rechts-Pfeil">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧍🏻" title="Stehende Person (heller Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Stehende Person (heller Hautton)">
- hand hygienehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧼" title="Soap" aria-label="Emoji: Soap">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👏🏻" title="Applaus-Zeichen (heller Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Applaus-Zeichen (heller Hautton)">
- mask wearinghttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😷" title="Gesicht mit Mundschutz" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Mundschutz">
- #TestTraceIsolatehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧬" title="DNA" aria-label="Emoji: DNA">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔍" title="Nach links zeigende Lupe" aria-label="Emoji: Nach links zeigende Lupe">
4/19
- general social distancing/density reduction
- hand hygiene
- mask wearing
- #TestTraceIsolate
4/19
*And* these /generally/ allow us to proceed with a pretty normal life if cases are under control.
This all seems obvious now but *we didn& #39;t know this* earlier this yearhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🗓️" title="Spiralkalenderblatt" aria-label="Emoji: Spiralkalenderblatt"> & we should be thankful that such relatively simple measures are *so effective* https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙏" title="Folded hands" aria-label="Emoji: Folded hands">
5/19
This all seems obvious now but *we didn& #39;t know this* earlier this year
5/19
However, when cases jitter https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤒" title="Gesicht mit Thermometer" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Thermometer">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">, some venues & activities seem to be more high-risk for transmission & can& #39;t operate as they normally do:
Bars, clubs, & gyms are hard to distance & have high aerosol risk.https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏋🏻♀️" title="Woman lifting weights (heller Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Woman lifting weights (heller Hautton)">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🕺🏿" title="Tanzender Mann (dunkler Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Tanzender Mann (dunkler Hautton)">
Restaurants/museums/etc often need to be at <100% capacityhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏛️" title="Gebäude im Klassischen Stil" aria-label="Emoji: Gebäude im Klassischen Stil">
6/19
Bars, clubs, & gyms are hard to distance & have high aerosol risk.
Restaurants/museums/etc often need to be at <100% capacity
6/19
Further, things like travel are still restricted https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛫" title="Abfliegendes Flugzeug" aria-label="Emoji: Abfliegendes Flugzeug">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🌍" title="Europa-Afrika auf dem Globus" aria-label="Emoji: Europa-Afrika auf dem Globus">, & for many people, generally unattractive. Perhaps increasingly un-affordable as well, as the economic implications start to bite. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💸" title="Geld mit Flügeln" aria-label="Emoji: Geld mit Flügeln">
A lot of these industries will take a long time to - & some may never - recover.
7/19
A lot of these industries will take a long time to - & some may never - recover.
7/19
Currently, in many countries, economic & social packages providing furlough, welfare & job security https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💰" title="Geldsack" aria-label="Emoji: Geldsack"> & preventing things like evictions https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏠" title="Haus" aria-label="Emoji: Haus"> & loan default are due to expire at the end of summer... https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🌞" title="Sonne mit Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Sonne mit Gesicht">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend">
But we aren& #39;t going to be at & #39;normal& #39; by then & we shouldn& #39;t expect to
8/19
But we aren& #39;t going to be at & #39;normal& #39; by then & we shouldn& #39;t expect to
8/19
Possibly quite the opposite, in fact - as we modelled back in March, there& #39;s a real risk of a & #39;second wave& #39; https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🌊" title="Wasserwelle" aria-label="Emoji: Wasserwelle"> as winter arrives https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="☃️" title="Schneemann" aria-label="Emoji: Schneemann">
(Different & #39;peak months& #39; for transmission shown)
https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20224
9/19">https://smw.ch/article/d...
(Different & #39;peak months& #39; for transmission shown)
https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20224
9/19">https://smw.ch/article/d...
as winter arrives https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="☃️" title="Schneemann" aria-label="Emoji: Schneemann"> (Different & #39;peak months& #39; for transmission shown) https://smw.ch/article/d..." title="Possibly quite the opposite, in fact - as we modelled back in March, there& #39;s a real risk of a & #39;second wave& #39; https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🌊" title="Wasserwelle" aria-label="Emoji: Wasserwelle"> as winter arrives https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="☃️" title="Schneemann" aria-label="Emoji: Schneemann"> (Different & #39;peak months& #39; for transmission shown) https://smw.ch/article/d..." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
It& #39;s important to remember though - this *ISN& #39;T* inevitable! Much of seasonality is behavioural - we stay inside more https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏘️" title="Häuser" aria-label="Emoji: Häuser"> & open windows less https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🪟" title="Window" aria-label="Emoji: Window">
If prepared, we can counter this with corresponding behavioural changeshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧠" title="Gehirn" aria-label="Emoji: Gehirn"> - if we are determined to keep them up.
10/19
If prepared, we can counter this with corresponding behavioural changes
10/19
While we& #39;d all love for #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 to be in its death-throes (esp in Europe), & think that if we can just hang in a little longer, we& #39;ll cross the finish-line into & #39;normalcy& #39;, this thinking prevents us from effectively & adequately preparing for the future.
11/19
11/19
We need to find longer-term ways to preserve our economy *while* making allowances for continued social-distancing https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧑🏽🤝🧑🏼" title="Leute halten Händchen (mittlerer Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Leute halten Händchen (mittlerer Hautton)"> & moving back-and-forth across & #39;open/closed lines& #39; https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚪" title="Tür" aria-label="Emoji: Tür"> (& inherently different consumer behaviour based on the perceived risks https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙅🏽♀️" title="Frau gestikuliert „Nicht OK“ (mittlerer Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Frau gestikuliert „Nicht OK“ (mittlerer Hautton)">).
12/19
12/19
We need to support businesses https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛍️" title="Einkaufstaschen" aria-label="Emoji: Einkaufstaschen"> & individuals https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="☹️" title="Stirnrunzelndes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Stirnrunzelndes Gesicht"> whose livelihoods will be affected by *more* months of uncertainty & economic downturn https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💸" title="Geld mit Flügeln" aria-label="Emoji: Geld mit Flügeln">.
A *huge* part of that is keeping cases as low as possible so we can be as open as possible - while reacting quickly to spikes!https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤒" title="Gesicht mit Thermometer" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Thermometer">
13/19
A *huge* part of that is keeping cases as low as possible so we can be as open as possible - while reacting quickly to spikes!
13/19
Another *big* part of this is making the #COVID19 situation safe enough to re-open schools https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏫" title="Schule" aria-label="Emoji: Schule">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🎒" title="Schulranzen" aria-label="Emoji: Schulranzen">
Schools *should not open* while it& #39;s not safehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend"> - but we need to *prioritise* controlling cases & implementing measures so it *is* safe https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😷" title="Gesicht mit Mundschutz" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Mundschutz">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📝" title="Memo" aria-label="Emoji: Memo">
14/19
Schools *should not open* while it& #39;s not safe
14/19
I have big concerns about the long-term impact on children not getting access to in-person education & social interactionhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👦🏼" title="Junge (mittelheller Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Junge (mittelheller Hautton)">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📕" title="Geschlossenes Buch" aria-label="Emoji: Geschlossenes Buch">
I also have big concerns about the impact this is having on womenhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="♀️" title="Weibliches Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Weibliches Zeichen"> who primarily are responsible for home-schooling, impacting their careers https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👩🏽💼" title="Woman office worker (mittlerer Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Woman office worker (mittlerer Hautton)">
15/19
I also have big concerns about the impact this is having on women
15/19
Neither of these things are good for the economy, especially in the longer-term https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💸" title="Geld mit Flügeln" aria-label="Emoji: Geld mit Flügeln"> - but I would also hope that educating our children is a social good outside of economic ramifications https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🕊️" title="Friedens-Taube" aria-label="Emoji: Friedens-Taube">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✍️🏼" title="Schreibende Hand (mittelheller Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Schreibende Hand (mittelheller Hautton)">.
Clearly, many ppl unemployed/evicted is also bad news economically & sociallyhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😢" title="Weinendes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Weinendes Gesicht">
16/19
Clearly, many ppl unemployed/evicted is also bad news economically & socially
16/19
And we *all* need to be prepared for more maskshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😷" title="Gesicht mit Mundschutz" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Mundschutz">, more low-density indoorshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧍🏾" title="Stehende Person (durchschnittlich dunkler Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Stehende Person (durchschnittlich dunkler Hautton)">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="↔️" title="Links-rechts-Pfeil" aria-label="Emoji: Links-rechts-Pfeil">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧍🏻" title="Stehende Person (heller Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Stehende Person (heller Hautton)">, & more things not quite operating at & #39;normal& #39; level https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥡" title="Essen to go" aria-label="Emoji: Essen to go">
"Inconveniences" that will save lives *and* keep things as open as possible.
17/19
"Inconveniences" that will save lives *and* keep things as open as possible.
17/19
We similarly *must* start re-thinking how our society & economy works https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💹" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend und Yen-Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend und Yen-Zeichen">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🌐" title="Weltkugel mit Längengraden" aria-label="Emoji: Weltkugel mit Längengraden"> in the medium - to long-term to protect & preserve businesses https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏬" title="Kaufhaus" aria-label="Emoji: Kaufhaus"> (esp small ones) & individuals https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧑🏾🍳" title="Cook (durchschnittlich dunkler Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Cook (durchschnittlich dunkler Hautton)"> who will continue to be hard-hit.
18/19
18/19
To repeat 1 key message:
Keeping cases as low as possiblehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend"> = keeping schools https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏫" title="Schule" aria-label="Emoji: Schule"> & businesses https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛍️" title="Einkaufstaschen" aria-label="Emoji: Einkaufstaschen"> open as possible = saving lives https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚕️" title="Äskulapstab" aria-label="Emoji: Äskulapstab"> & saving livelihoods https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😊" title="Lächelndes Gesicht mit lächelnden Augen" aria-label="Emoji: Lächelndes Gesicht mit lächelnden Augen">
We know how to do it.
We just need to be ready to do it for longer.
And we can keep #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 from winning.
19/
Keeping cases as low as possible
We know how to do it.
We just need to be ready to do it for longer.
And we can keep #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 from winning.
19/
