"Just hang in there a little longer"

We *must* stop treating the #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 pandemic as if this is something to be endured for a few more weeks.

We're in this for the long-haul, & the sooner we start behaving that way, the better we'll do.

1/19

This *doesn't* mean we need to be in lockdown (or anything like it) long-term.

But it *does* mean we need to be prepared for long-term social distancing , mask-wearing, & hand-hygiene , as well as a fluctuating state of 'open'.

2/19

Even in countries like S Korea, where full lockdown never happened & where containing spread has been largely successful, multiple 'spikes' have happened. We see this in other re-opening countries.

Success depends on being able to effectively contain these increases.

3/19

While no one action (barring full lockdown) is likely enough to contain #SARSCoV2, we have found a package of measures that seem to work well:
- general social distancing/density reduction
- hand hygiene
- mask wearing
- #TestTraceIsolate

4/19

*And* these /generally/ allow us to proceed with a pretty normal life if cases are under control.

This all seems obvious now but *we didn't know this* earlier this year & we should be thankful that such relatively simple measures are *so effective*

5/19

However, when cases jitter , some venues & activities seem to be more high-risk for transmission & can't operate as they normally do:

Bars, clubs, & gyms are hard to distance & have high aerosol risk.
Restaurants/museums/etc often need to be at <100% capacity

6/19

Further, things like travel are still restricted , & for many people, generally unattractive. Perhaps increasingly un-affordable as well, as the economic implications start to bite.

A lot of these industries will take a long time to - & some may never - recover.

7/19

Currently, in many countries, economic & social packages providing furlough, welfare & job security & preventing things like evictions & loan default are due to expire at the end of summer...

But we aren't going to be at 'normal' by then & we shouldn't expect to

8/19

Possibly quite the opposite, in fact - as we modelled back in March, there's a real risk of a 'second wave' as winter arrives

(Different 'peak months' for transmission shown)
https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20224

9/19

It's important to remember though - this *ISN'T* inevitable! Much of seasonality is behavioural - we stay inside more & open windows less

If prepared, we can counter this with corresponding behavioural changes - if we are determined to keep them up.

10/19

While we'd all love for #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 to be in its death-throes (esp in Europe), & think that if we can just hang in a little longer, we'll cross the finish-line into 'normalcy', this thinking prevents us from effectively & adequately preparing for the future.

11/19

We need to find longer-term ways to preserve our economy *while* making allowances for continued social-distancing & moving back-and-forth across 'open/closed lines' (& inherently different consumer behaviour based on the perceived risks ).

12/19

We need to support businesses & individuals whose livelihoods will be affected by *more* months of uncertainty & economic downturn .

A *huge* part of that is keeping cases as low as possible so we can be as open as possible - while reacting quickly to spikes!

13/19

Another *big* part of this is making the #COVID19 situation safe enough to re-open schools

Schools *should not open* while it's not safe - but we need to *prioritise* controlling cases & implementing measures so it *is* safe

14/19

I have big concerns about the long-term impact on children not getting access to in-person education & social interaction

I also have big concerns about the impact this is having on women who primarily are responsible for home-schooling, impacting their careers

15/19

Neither of these things are good for the economy, especially in the longer-term - but I would also hope that educating our children is a social good outside of economic ramifications .

Clearly, many ppl unemployed/evicted is also bad news economically & socially

16/19

And we *all* need to be prepared for more masks, more low-density indoors, & more things not quite operating at 'normal' level

"Inconveniences" that will save lives *and* keep things as open as possible.

17/19

We similarly *must* start re-thinking how our society & economy works in the medium - to long-term to protect & preserve businesses (esp small ones) & individuals who will continue to be hard-hit.

18/19

To repeat 1 key message:

Keeping cases as low as possible = keeping schools & businesses open as possible = saving lives & saving livelihoods

We know how to do it.
We just need to be ready to do it for longer.
And we can keep #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 from winning.

19/