Thread.
Did a downswing in 2019 had an impact to current situation and increased fatalaties in 2020.
Focus are the "hard hit countries" and age group 85+

Exercise: take numbers from peak in
2020 week 13 to week 17

and shift them back to winter
2018/2019 week 48 to week 13

(2)
Spain
Peak 2020 Week 14: 29.365 total fatalaties age group 85+ .

Shifted numbers in total: 14k

(3)
USA
Peak 2020 Week 15: 24.684 total fatalaties age group 85+ .

Shifted numbers in total: 15k

(4)
Sweden
Peak 2020 week 15: 1.192 total fatalaties age group 85+ .

Shifted numbers in total: 1k

(5)
Typo again Thread (2) Spain.
Peak 2020 Week 14: 10538 total fatalaties age group 85+ .
Chart is correct.

(6)
England and Wales
Peak 2020 week 16: 9.601 total fatalaties age group 85+ .

Shifted numbers in total: 9.5k

(7)
Belgium
Peak 2020 week 16: 2.105 total fatalaties age group 85+ .

Shifted numbers in total: 2.2k

(8)
Germany no hard hit 2020.

But as a I highlighted here, Germany has a higher mortality rate anyway

https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1281131174920945664

(9)
11 European Countries.

Hard hit: Spain, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden (??)
+ Norway, Finland, Austria, Switzerland, Hungary, Portugal

Peak 2020 week 16: 29.365 total fatalaties age group 85+

Shifted numbers in total: 26k

Credit to @FatEmperor who made video about this already https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1280105813672148992?s=19

@threader_app please compile

(10)
I have been asked if this calc will also work for other age groups.

Europe, same countries as (9) but age group 75-84.

Peak 2020 week 16: 16.653 total fatalaties age group 75-84

Shifted numbers in total: 13k

(11)
All age groups.
Total numbers.
Europe, countries see above (9).

Peak 2020 week 14: 61.591 total fatalities

Shifted numbers in total: 32k

(12)
USA
All age groups.
Total numbers.

Peak 2020 week 15: 77.737 total fatalities

Shifted numbers in total: 50k

(13)
Did you know that I am actually sceptic about those blurry curves since I have seen so many COVID curves?

I will do another view and try to keep it simple.

Total numbers summary from week 1 to week 25 each year.

We see the spike 2020.

(14)
To break the numbers down divide by 25 to get it
on a weekly basis to ensure a better visibilty.

(15)
Now, time range is 5 years.
Population grew.

On the left side from ~321 Mio 2015 to ~328 Mio 2019.

I took 328 Mio for 2020 as well.

Have a look at 2019 !

(16)
This are the numbers per week per mio.

Average is 81.

2020 is clearly above average!

2019 below.

(17)
In exercise (12) I have shifted back 50k to 2019.

50k divided by 25 weeks divided by 328 population
is ~6.

Result:

2020 is average.
2019 is on level 2017.

I hope, that was not too difficult.