Some key takeaways on elections in #NorthMacedonia (🧵):
- on turnout: 51.34% is pretty good, especially considering the pandemic & many voters living abroad being unable to return. For comparison, in pre full-on captured state times, turnout was 55.98% (2006) & 57.06% (2008).
- on results: SDSM will be given the mandate to form a govt. Even though they aimed to be able to form a govt with Alliance and DPA, their mandates don't add up to 61. So, it's back to DUI, despite pre-election harsh criticism.
DUI is the ultimate winner in these elections, as aside of a SDSM+VMRO scenario (unlikely!), no govt can be formed without their support. They've campaigned for an Albanian PM. We're yet to see how much of those and other demands will remain at the negotiating table.
As for VMRO, those who are surprised by their rather solid result, especially considering the lack of any significant reforms within the party since Gruevski, have profoundly underestimated some people's anger and frustration with the name change.
We are also seeing the entry into Parliament of a new party, Levica, which has positioned itself against SDSM, DUI, and VMRO (i.e. those who have been in power in the last decades). They've also positioned themselves against the name change.
Zaev is obviously aware of the frustration among the electorate, especially with the lack of justice and judicial reforms, as his speech last night emphasised heavily and in no uncertain terms that their focus will be on "justice and economy".
- finally, on cyber attacks: the websites of the State Election Commission, the biggest news aggregator, and at least one medium were all subject to a cyber attack from abroad last night. No further information on who is behind the attacks as of now /end #IzboriMk #избори2020
You can follow @EBStavrevska.
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