I’ve compiled some research on both the Obama and HRC teams VP searches and announcements, including timelines and media coverage. While of course no two processes are the same, it might provide some context on what’s going on with Team Biden right now. First up, Hillary. 1/

The convention was July 25. Hillary announced Kaine the eve of July 22. Up to and including that day, Cory Booker was still angling for the job in the media and privately and hadn’t been ruled out. Tom Vislack was in the top three but no longer a contender by mid July. 2/

As reported in the media, unlike with Obama, HRC’s shortlist throughout June and July remained pretty consistent and apparently, per later reporting, accurate. Primarily Kaine, Vislack, Warren, Perez, Castro, Booker, Brown. 3/

I haven’t been able to find good reporting on when they final few in contention got the calls telling them they weren’t the one, but at least with Cory, it appears to have gone down to the wire. Interesting to speculate on what might have been. 4/

On to Obama. The convention was held August 25. Obama announced Biden on August 23. Reporting indicates Obama decided while on vacation in Hawaii the week of August 8 and informed his team of the decision on August 17. However, the two others in the final three, Bayh and Kaine 5/

didn’t get calls until August 22. Reportedly HRC got a courtesy call too although it was later reported she wasn’t even vetted despite being on media shortlists repeatedly. The media often mentioned Biden and Kaine as potentials but much of the shortlist in June and July 6/

as claimed by the media seems to have been just inaccurate speculation. By all accounts, Obama’s final three was Kaine, Bayh, and Biden. He started out with 15-20 names in June. In July the media largely reported it would be Kaine. As late as August 22, the day before the pick 7/

HuffPo ran a piece speculating it was Bayh. There appear not to have been any widespread leaks revealing it was Biden until 8/21 and 8/22 despite the decision having come from Obama some time earlier. So what to take away from all of this? 8/

Maybe nothing. But reading the tea leaves, while the media tends to accurately report the final two or three close to the time of the pick, the early reports of a shortlist are often wrong. Also a nominee may decide well in advance and still appear to be vetting others 9/

or may in fact wait to make the decision until the last day. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of prep for rollouts, and other potentials are clearly routinely kept in the dark until the final moment to prevent leaks. 10/

So for what it’s worth, if we look to history as a guide, I think we can safely ignore early reports of long “short lists” and also probably assume that no decision will necessarily be made until right before the announcement. 11/11