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Hindsight is a great teacher, as they say. Well, the lesson is even better when it comes with data. Here& #39;s my full review of #GE2020 
https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> and the overlooked trends that turned every prediction on its head: http://www.analytix-labs.com/insights/ge2020-review
Thread">https://www.analytix-labs.com/insights/... 1/17
Thread">https://www.analytix-labs.com/insights/... 1/17
Let& #39;s start at the top. Was this a "Covid-election"? In form maybe, but not in substance as chart here shows. FB user interaction with Covid news posts by media outlets way down by the time S& #39;poreans got around to voting on July 10
2/17
2/17
Polling results clearly showed that there was "flight to safety" effect, as most had expected. On hindsight, any such sentiment among Singaporean voters might have been grounded by June
3/17
3/17
Here& #39;s what I wrote previously about desensitisation to Covid-19 news: https://www.analytix-labs.com/insights/covid-numb
TL,DR:">https://www.analytix-labs.com/insights/... The S& #39;pore electorate was open to competing political messages. And in #GE2020https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt="">, the PAP and the Opposition parties indeed campaigned on vastly distinct narratives.
4/17
TL,DR:">https://www.analytix-labs.com/insights/... The S& #39;pore electorate was open to competing political messages. And in #GE2020
4/17
Of the GE-related charts I& #39;ve made, this one interests me the most. Based on 154 FB posts btw June 23-July 8 that contained keywords of core campaign messages by PAP and WP.
Public interest in PAP message peaked too early, while that for WP peaked right before Polling Day 5/17
Public interest in PAP message peaked too early, while that for WP peaked right before Polling Day 5/17
This "enthusiasm gap" is something that gets talked about a lot in US politics. Very interesting to see it play out like this in Singapore. The surge in FB interaction for the Opposition& #39;s posts on July 8 was largely driven by 3 heartfelt videos WP& #39;s Pritam Singh and LTK
6/17
6/17
Unclear whether the PAP or Opp parties paid any attention to these signals on FB. Qn of social media& #39;s impact on voter behaviour remains a controversial and little-understood one in Sg politics. But results from the "Sengkang Surprise" could shift the debate on this issue 7/17
There were clear warning signs for the PAP Sengkang team from the get-go. Chart here based on 325 FB posts btw June 28 and July 11 by 7 media outlets that mentioned the contest in Sengkang and the core members of the PAP and WP& #39;s teams in that ward. 8/17
Main caveat for above chart is that those who reacted to the FB posts aren& #39;t necessarily Sengkang voters, or even S& #39;poreans at all. But the gap is so huge that there is no doubt that WP& #39;s Sengkang team garnered far greater mindshare and name recognition than their PAP rivals 9/17
Jamus Lim was the spark that lit the social media fuse for the WP Sengkang team. These two videos, by @MothershipSG, have been viewed at least 1.28 million times on FB:
10/17
10/17
Throughout the campaign period (June 30 to July 8), the WP Sengkang team averaged 32,744 FB interactions per day, while the PAP team only managed 4,205 FB interactions daily - a nearly eight-fold gap. There& #39;s a good reason why Dr Lim has earned the moniker "Famous Jamus"
11/ 17
11/ 17
A mood meter of FB reactions on Election Results Night further confirms the signals we& #39;ve seen in Sengkang and with regards to the "enthusiasm gap" between the competing messages from the parties. 12/17
Chart above is based on 390 FB posts between 11pm on July 10 and 5am on July 11 from 7media outlets. The biggest spikes in FB-style celebration took place around the times when WP& #39;s victories in Hougang, Aljunied and Sengkang were announced and later confirmed.
13/17
13/17
Another way to look at the public reaction: Of the 10 Election Night FB posts that had the highest total interactions, nine were related to WP& #39;s victories:
14/17
14/17
FB analytics seen here is only a limited proxy for the broader public conversation. We should be skeptical of social media data. But #GE2020 https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> showed that there are times when social media data do contain important signals that political parties ignore at their own peril.
15/17
15/17
Sg political parties have gotten better at using social media for content distribution. But they appear limited in ability to analyse impact their content is creating directly/indirectly. Major blindspot - & competitive disadvantage - as more digital natives get to vote
16/17
16/17
GE2024/25: Winning people over will require more than just right candidate/message. Increasingly, success will go to team that can also accurately interpret and react to the tsunami of online/social media data that their candidates/messages generate directly or indirectly 17/17
