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One of the federal govt& #39;s ring-in deputy CMOs, Nick Coatsworth, published an opinion piece in the @smh yesterday. It starts with a shockingly bad misrepresentation of events & propositions about COVID19 elimination: a strawman fallacy. /2 https://www.smh.com.au/national/eliminating-covid-is-a-false-hope-but-aggressive-suppression-is-working-20200715-p55c8e.html">https://www.smh.com.au/national/... #auspol
One of the federal govt& #39;s ring-in deputy CMOs, Nick Coatsworth, published an opinion piece in the @smh yesterday. It starts with a shockingly bad misrepresentation of events & propositions about COVID19 elimination: a strawman fallacy. /2 https://www.smh.com.au/national/eliminating-covid-is-a-false-hope-but-aggressive-suppression-is-working-20200715-p55c8e.html">https://www.smh.com.au/national/... #auspol
2/9 The proposition -not an & #39;inference& #39;, as Dr Coatsworth illogically terms it- is not that Victoria (& NSW & other parts of Aus) would have been free of current problems if community transmission had been eliminated: it is that ongoing community transmission /3
3/9 ... is too costly, too dangerous.
Coatsworth rightly notes the current upsurge in cases has "largely stemmed from breaches in quarantine arrangements for Aust& #39;n citizens returning from overseas."
He then waffles about definitions, uses measles as a false analogy (see #8) ..
Coatsworth rightly notes the current upsurge in cases has "largely stemmed from breaches in quarantine arrangements for Aust& #39;n citizens returning from overseas."
He then waffles about definitions, uses measles as a false analogy (see #8) ..
4/9 ... before coming back to borders and quarantine, simply asserting -
"It is impossible to completely seal the borders of any country – even an island continent such as Australia – and nor should we try to ... Our systems are excellent, but they will never be perfect." /5
"It is impossible to completely seal the borders of any country – even an island continent such as Australia – and nor should we try to ... Our systems are excellent, but they will never be perfect." /5
5/9 This is a cop out, especially given the systems are not beyond Australian govts, and in fact are largely in place.
Coatsworth then says "The risk [that] elimination creates is a false sense of security that may diminish the community engagement with widespread testing ... /6
Coatsworth then says "The risk [that] elimination creates is a false sense of security that may diminish the community engagement with widespread testing ... /6
6/9 "..and lead to a downsizing of the enhanced public health response, based on an assumption "we have got rid of the virus once and for all in our part of the world".
There& #39;s so much wrong with that sentence: firstly, there wouldn& #39;t be any need for widespread testing if .. /7
There& #39;s so much wrong with that sentence: firstly, there wouldn& #39;t be any need for widespread testing if .. /7
7/9 elimination were to be achieved. Whether elimination would lead to a false sense of security could be contended & may be moot given the security ought to be provided by public health & biosecurity provisions led by people like him. /8
