My Core Thesis for Tesla (a thread):

By 2022, the world will have “normalized” what is now considered science fiction: the concept of a robotaxi.

Tesla price target of $5k by 2022 -- result of “awakening the fleet” (i.e. launching the Tesla Network); as of today (July 15), the stock price is roughly $1,550.

It's business model in 3 words: printer and ink. Printer = car. Ink = FSD subscription and Robotaxi revenue cut. As of now, the market only values Tesla based on the printer, when in reality, the ink is what truly matters long-term. Until that changes, I am permanently bullish

Announcement of the first geo for the Tesla Network will result in a violent rush to $3k/share, as Wall Street analysts rush to analyze and incorporate this high-margin revenue stream into their 5-year discounted cashflow models (DCF) to reveal the hidden truth of Tesla’s true...

business model: a Transportation-as-a-Service company that acquires massive, recurring, high-margin revenue from it’s global, exponentially growing Tesla fleet. Their price targets will jump higher and reflect what Ark Invest has projected since 2019 (i.e. $5k-7k+ price targets)

Tesla’s flywheel effect (more cars --> economies of scale --> lower prices --> more cars) has one other important synergy: exponential data collection. This speeds the rate at which full autonomy will be achieved and perfected over time. During the “fleet build-up phase,” ...

Tesla will aim for neutral profitability, and after launching the robotaxi, will be “extremely cash flow positive.” A back-of-the-envelope analysis is all that is required to clearly understand the dramatic transformation this will have on Tesla’s financial structure and outlook.

Wall Street Analysts still do not incorporate the Tesla Network into their 5 year DCF models, when they do, it will clearly reveal the vast high-margin, recurring revenue stream and it will transform Tesla from being known as an automobile maker, to a “SaaS” technology company.

My personal belief is that the Tesla Network is so critical to Tesla’s mission and vision, that Elon will decide to continually reduce prices of the vehicles, which will create an insurmountable competitive moat, while generating all the profit from the Tesla Network (and FSD ).

Cars are utilized 6% of the time -- Elon knows that to truly make a dent in transportation emissions, we must utilize the other 94% of the time. The best way to do this is a robotaxi that can make money will you’re not using the car, and taking “trips” market share away from ICE

Tesla will thus be permanently production constrained, and due to the fact that the vehicles will have a high net present value (due to future free cash flow generated as a robotaxi) and virtually sold out at all times, the vehicle will have an appreciation aspect to them

As of now, everyone compares Tesla to other auto manufacturers and cannot comprehend how Tesla can be valued more than many of them combined. What will be apparent in the near future will be that this is because you are comparing apples to oranges. Why?...

Because Tesla is a SaaS company, not an auto manufacturer. The metrics are incomparable -- and history will reveal that only those who did not understand technology disruption will have made the mistake.

That is the source of the massive arbitrage opportunity that has enabled me to earn roughly 4,000% in the last twelve months (including through a global pandemic).

I understood that this opportunity existed, and used a financial security that would enable me to maximize the gains from this stock. Had I bought at $200 and held, I would have gained approximately 675%, whereas options reaped approximately 4,000% (pre-tax adjusted basis).

Long-term, I believe Tesla will launch car models suitable for mass adoption in the developing world markets (Brazil, India, etc.) that are low-cost, smaller vehicles, potentially in similar fashion to the Cybertruck (flat design) and optimize logistics via dozens of Giga's

As the robotaxi model is globally saturated, Tesla will focus on scaling up renewable energy products for consumer and utility-scale usage, enabling increasingly growing recurring revenue streams.

As all major consumer transport vehicle categories have been saturated, Tesla will likely move into other modes of transport based on emission/utilization scale (e.g., planes, buses, boats, etc.) as battery technology matures and enables greater cost-vs-performance efficiency.

Tesla will inevitably become the world’s most valuable company over the coming 10+ years.

Elon will eventually replace himself as CEO and shift to focus on SpaceX and Neuralink full-time after achieving his 2018 compensation plan (i.e. growing Tesla beyond $650 bn market cap company, or $3,500/share)

...and since he cannot sell shares for 5 years after vesting, he will likely stay as CEO until 2028 or so before shifting focus to other species-level problems (i.e. after climate change, he will focus on interplanetary transport/colonization and symbiosis with AI).

Which means we still have nearly a decade of Elon at the helm as he scales the Tesla Network and energy/storage business globally.