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1. For months we’ve been trying to find figs & science behind Govt quarantine policy, both in March when we had no quarantine & now.
Basic Q; how many people do Govt estimate are arriving in UK w Covid19? No answer again today. Why?
(A longer thread on today’s @CommonsHomeAffs)
Basic Q; how many people do Govt estimate are arriving in UK w Covid19? No answer again today. Why?
(A longer thread on today’s @CommonsHomeAffs)
2. Only figure Home Sec had today was 0.5% - but that figure is not what it seems (It’s not an estimate of the proportion of people arriving in UK who have Covid)
And it also doesn’t appear to have changed since March 23rd despite the huge changes in the pandemic since then
And it also doesn’t appear to have changed since March 23rd despite the huge changes in the pandemic since then
3. Here’s my previous attempts earlier in the session to get to the bottom of it;
Q. how many people do you estimate are currently coming into UK with Covid 19?
A. We don’t have that figure, it is held elsewhere in Govt
Q. how many people do you estimate are currently coming into UK with Covid 19?
A. We don’t have that figure, it is held elsewhere in Govt
4. I asked if Home Sec had ever requested that number. She had been given a 0.5% fig but some confusion on what it meant
To be clear. 0.5% is Govt estimate of Covid+ new arrivals in UK as a proportion of existing cases here.
Not Covid+ cases as a proportion of all new arrivals
To be clear. 0.5% is Govt estimate of Covid+ new arrivals in UK as a proportion of existing cases here.
Not Covid+ cases as a proportion of all new arrivals
5. HO scientific advisor only focuses on the 0.5% figure. But other scientists have told us that total number of covid cases arriving is important, not just the proportion of domestic infections. So I‘ve kept asking for those figures. For months.
6. Here’s why it matters. Scientists including SAGE advisors now estimate that between 1300 & 10,000 people w Covid arrived back around March - esp from Spain & Italy. And weren’t quarantined. Sir Patrick Vallance says that accelerated the epidemic.
7. Papers to SAGE in June suggest that by 15 March, 900 Covid positive cases a day were arriving. But on 13 March, Govt lifted all self isolation rules at border & had no quarantine for 3 months. I asked Home Sec if she regretted that decision. She said it was based on advice.
8. That’s why I’m trying to get to bottom of that advice. What it was then & what it is now. Because it had huge implications at start.
Matters today too. Quarantine policy affects health & economy. Govt needs estimates of no of cases caught & missed to help get policy right
Matters today too. Quarantine policy affects health & economy. Govt needs estimates of no of cases caught & missed to help get policy right
9. I also asked if Govt wd publish the Joint BioSecurity Centre assessments on prevalence of cases in Spain, Portugal & other countries and what the threshold is for being exempted from quarantine.
Answer; Home Office doesn’t set threshold or hold that info.
Answer; Home Office doesn’t set threshold or hold that info.
10. We are 6 months into a global crisis. As rates in different countries change, quarantine policies will still matter. We really need to know that Home Office & Govt are on top of the detail, getting & publishing full info so they make right decisions for sake of us all.
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