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AJB THREAD
Let me preface this with I LOVE AJ BROWN. Loved him as a prospect coming out, love the production we saw in his rookie season. This is NOT intentionally AJ Brown slander...
However, I am curious about what year 2 will look like for him:
Let me preface this with I LOVE AJ BROWN. Loved him as a prospect coming out, love the production we saw in his rookie season. This is NOT intentionally AJ Brown slander...
However, I am curious about what year 2 will look like for him:
I have heard the argument that while AJB's efficiency may dip a bit in 2020, his volume will increase, thus offsetting some of that decrease in efficiency. However... what we are basing that assumption off of?
In Weeks 7-17 with Tannehill as starter:
AJB: 61 targets, 23.7% target market share, 6.1 Targets Per Game
Davis: 43 targets, 17.5% target MS, 4.7 TPG (missed one game)
Smith: 36 targets, 13.2% target MS, 3.6 TPG
AJB: 61 targets, 23.7% target market share, 6.1 Targets Per Game
Davis: 43 targets, 17.5% target MS, 4.7 TPG (missed one game)
Smith: 36 targets, 13.2% target MS, 3.6 TPG
In the three playoff games:
AJB: 10 targets, 16.7% TMS, 3.3 TPG
Davis: 12 targets, 20% TMS, 4 TPG
Smith: 9 targets, 15% TMS, 3 TPG
Small sample size, yes, but AJB was not becoming a target hog necessarily as the year wore on. Just additional data points to look at.
AJB: 10 targets, 16.7% TMS, 3.3 TPG
Davis: 12 targets, 20% TMS, 4 TPG
Smith: 9 targets, 15% TMS, 3 TPG
Small sample size, yes, but AJB was not becoming a target hog necessarily as the year wore on. Just additional data points to look at.
Combine the regular season and playoffs and the cumulative stats look like this:
AJB: 71 targets, 21.5% TMS, 5.5 TPG
Davis: 55 targets, 16.7% TMS, 4.6 TPG
Smith: 45 targets, 13.6% TMS, 3.5 TPG
AJB: 71 targets, 21.5% TMS, 5.5 TPG
Davis: 55 targets, 16.7% TMS, 4.6 TPG
Smith: 45 targets, 13.6% TMS, 3.5 TPG
Tanny averaged 27 pass attempts per game weeks 7-17. Then 20 PA in the 3 playoff games. Cumulatively, 25.4 PA p/g.
If Tannehill avgs 26 PA p/g over a full season, that's 416 pass attempts
If AJB maintains his ~24% target MS from 2019 reg season w/ Tanny, that's 100 targets
If Tannehill avgs 26 PA p/g over a full season, that's 416 pass attempts
If AJB maintains his ~24% target MS from 2019 reg season w/ Tanny, that's 100 targets
After going 7-2 in the regular season with Tannehill as a starter, I am not sure why TENN would change their offensive scheme dramatically. So what does this mean for AJ Brown?
The last WR to finish top-12 in PPR with 100 targets or less... Jordy Nelson in 2011.
Since 2015, top-12 PPR WR's avg 148 targets.
Even IF AJ Brown continues playing efficiently, it is extremely unlikely he cracks top-12 status in 2020.
Since 2015, top-12 PPR WR's avg 148 targets.
Even IF AJ Brown continues playing efficiently, it is extremely unlikely he cracks top-12 status in 2020.
AJB is being drafted as top-8 WR in dynasty, and I get it. He's young, was REALLY good as a rookie, etc. But I don't think the price is accounting for the fact he may not be a top-12 PPR WR until there's a QB change, an scheme change, etc.
Just something to think about
Just something to think about
