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THREAD: There’s a disconnect between the #COVID19 reality and the fantasyland of the public conversation around getting back to normal. I don’t want to be alarmist, but let’s be realistic about what we’re facing. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/507334-publics-disconnect-from-covid-19-reality-worries-experts
1) Things are bad. Really, really bad. The 10 days with the highest case counts in the US have happened over the last 11 days. Here’s the familiar daily case count in the US:
2) The number of dead is down, which is great, we’re getting better at treating #COVID19. But daily deaths are rising again. Here’s the daily death count since May 9:
3) 136,000 people in the United States have died. That’s roughly the population of Charleston, S.C., or Gainesville, Fla. More people have tested positive than live in Utah. By end of the week, there will have been more #COVID19 cases than there are residents of Connecticut.
4) Remember, the crisis isn’t just about #COVID19. If health systems are overwhelmed by patients, others who need care for heart attacks or strokes or whatever won’t be able to or just won’t seek that care.
5) Over capacity health care systems caused a lot of death in West Africa Ebola outbreak in 2014-2015. As @DrTomFrieden says often, more people died because of Ebola than from Ebola, as malaria/cholera/etc went untreated.
6) Hospitalizations have risen substantially in a little under half the states in the last two weeks. The positivity rate is in double digits in 14 states. Find that data here - https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/
7) Back to the situation: We know the epicenters are in AZ, FL, TX. But even states that locked down early are seeing new cases rise. CA has reported 54k+ cases over both of the last 2 weeks. NV, 1/13th CA’s size, reported 5,200 new cases. PA, IL, OH all rising.
8) “We are nearing the point where pretty much most of the gains we had achieved have been lost,” says @kalicat15. “All of us are hoping we magically get our acts together and we can look like Europe in two months. But all the data shows we are not doing that right now.”
9) We know #COVID19 is less likely to cause symptoms among kids. But millions of kids going back to school means millions of rolls of the dice. And millions of chances for kids to bring disease home to mom/dad/grandparent/caregiver.
10) Testing is still inadequate. On our best day, the US tested 823k people. That’s still below threshold we need, and some areas (AZ, Los Angeles) are running low on testing supplies.
11) PPE is STILL a problem too. Trump admin has used the Defense Production Act to order 300m N95 masks by end of year. That’s less than what health care workers need.
12) “A failure of national leadership has led us to a place where we are back where we were before, no national testing strategy, no national strategy for supply,” says @kellidrenner.
13) Vaccines as the cure-all? Hopefully, but not guaranteed. Still months away (at best) and no sure thing one would convey long-term immunity. “A vaccine is not going to solve this. People die of vaccine-preventable diseases every day,” says @nitanother.
14) The public is sick of lockdowns, understandably so. But to get virus under control, “we have to get back to the mental space and the resolute action we had in March. I’m not sure we have the energy and the wherewithal to do it,” says @kalicat15
15) “It’s like a learned helplessness when we’re not helpless. There are some pretty effective strategies, but we don’t seem to have the political will to do it.” — @kellidrenner
16) There is still no national plan. No national plan means no real plan for reopening schools safely.
17) “[T]o think that we can have these discussions as we have uncontrolled spread, to think we can have some national strategy for reopening schools when we don’t even have one for reopening the country, it’s just crazy,” says @Craig_A_Spencer
18) I’ve felt alarmist in my own head when I consider worst-case scenarios. But some places in the US are awfully close to the worst-case scenario right now. And other places will get there sooner than later. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/507334-publics-disconnect-from-covid-19-reality-worries-experts
19) The public health messages are getting lost, but we need to hear them again: Wear a mask, stay home if possible, avoid crowded places. In the words of @Craig_A_Spencer: “None of this was inevitable. None of this should be acceptable. There are ways we can do better.” -end-
