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Fact or Fiction: The U.S. should've known that Kerri Strug didn't need to compete her 2nd vault in the 1996 Olympics TF.
Team Total Score after 3 Rotations & Working Order
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Team Total Score after 3 Rotations & Working Order
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The NBC Broadcast did not show any Russian FX Routines. However, based on audio (background floor music) and background visuals, we have a time frame of when the Russian gymnasts compete while the U.S. gymnasts were vaulting.
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Had Strug not competed her 2nd vault, her first vault score would've been dropped and the U.S. team total would've been 388.713.
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From the NBC broadcast, it is hard to ascertain whether or not Dolgopolova's score was flashed before Strug vaulted for a 2nd time. So, Russia's max score before and after Dolgopolova's score was flashed was 389.267 and 389.017, respectively.
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It is unlikely, that the remaining gymnasts would've scored 10s. However, before and after Dolgopolova's score was flashed, the remaining Russian gymnasts needed to average greater than 9.815 and 9.848, respectively, to win.
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Conclusion: FICTION. It was indeed mathematically possible for Russia to outscore the U.S. in the 1996 WAG TF before Kerri Strug's 2nd vault and with reasonably achievable scores. There was no way at the time for the U.S. to know that Kerri ultimately didn't need to vault.
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Disclaimer: I did this hastily. Peer-review is very much welcomed!
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