A few observations on the upcoming @CIJ_ICJ elections. This election will be particularly interesting to watch because the 2017 disruption in seat allocations might have ripple effects and cause surprises /thread

#ICJ #InternationalLaw #Intlaw https://twitter.com/bknussberger/status/1283275311036215296

The repartition of the 15 seats at the #ICJ has traditionally been allocated by regional groups in the same way as the 15 seats on the #UNSC: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Regional_Groups

However, the last election in 2017 broke this “convention” when judge Bhandari from the Asian group was elected to a seat previously occupied by judges from Western Europe #WEOG.

IMO, the ripple effect in this election might be that the extra #WEOG seat taken by Asia will be up for grabs by other groups who might want to increase their presence.

This might be particularly interesting for #Africa. The continent is presenting 3 candidates for 1 seat (despite @_AfricanUnion efforts). But they might actually have a chance to elect 2 in this round, increasing the total number of African judges to 4 instead of their regular 3.

The same could be said for the Eastern Europe group. The group could theoretically snatch the extra seat by having both Both Tomka (Slovakia) and Seršić (Croatia) elected - thus increasing their overall presence to 3.

But the African and Eastern Europe ambitions might be stifled by the fact that it would mean winning an extra seat at the expense of one of the two Asian candidates running for re-election: Judge Xue (China) and Iwasawa (Japan).

It’s not impossible but certainly difficult. Judge Xue is current VP and might benefit from what’s left of the P5 convention. Iwasawa benefits from incumbent position + Japan’s long history on the Court. Then again, this might be a liability as others might feel it is their time

Turning to #WEOG, it seems Georg Nolte has very good chances of being elected as he is the only candidate to fill the WEOG seat left vacant. Then again, nothing is guaranteed and it might be that States continue the 2017 trend and decide to reduce #WEOG even more to 3 seats.

It’s also interesting to note that #WEOG is not presenting a second candidate to “reclaim” the lost seat of 2017.

Last thing: Judge Tomka is running for a third term. If he's elected, he would join a handful of judges who have served more than two terms; but if he completes it, he could then match the record for longest-serving #ICJ judge currently held by judge Oda at 27 years.

Addendum - see this great thread for more #ICJ election insights, especially for debates within the African and Eastern European groups Give it a follow while you're there! https://twitter.com/OriPomson/status/1283284325455331328?s=20